Short-Term Bubble Risk [Phantom]

Short-Term Bubble Risk [Phantom]



Concept

This indicator visualizes short-term market risk by measuring how far price is stretched relative to its recent weekly trend.

Instead of focusing on absolute price levels, it looks at price behavior.
A similar reading means similar market conditions, whether price is high or low.

The goal is to help identify areas of potential accumulation and potential distribution in a clear, visual way.

How It Works

The indicator compares the weekly closing price to a weekly moving average and displays the deviation as a histogram.

• When price is far below its average, risk is considered lower
  
• When price is far above its average, risk is considered higher
  

The zero line represents fair value, where price equals its weekly average.

Features

• Color-coded histogram showing short-term risk levels
  
• Designed to work across different assets and price ranges
  
• Optional bar coloring on the main chart using weekly risk data
  
• Safe to use on any timeframe (risk is calculated on weekly data)
  

Settings

# Moving Average Length (Weeks):
Adjusts how sensitive the indicator is to price changes

# Color Visibility Toggles:
Allows hiding or showing specific risk zones

# Bar Coloring:
Option to color chart candles based on weekly risk levels

Usage

This indicator is best used as a risk lens, not a timing tool.
Common uses include:

• Identifying potential accumulation zones during weakness
  
• Spotting overextended conditions during strong moves
  
• Comparing short-term risk across different assets
  
• Adding context to trend-following or DCA strategies
  

Trade Ideas

# Lower-risk zones (cool colors):
Can support accumulation or patience during downtrends

# Higher-risk zones (warm colors):
Can signal caution, reduced exposure, or profit-taking

Always combine with:

• Trend direction
  
• Market structure
  
• Higher-timeframe context
  

Limitations

This indicator does not predict tops or bottoms
High risk can remain high during strong trends
Low risk does not guarantee immediate reversals
It should not be used as a standalone trading system.

Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only.
It is not financial advice.
Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.