QQQ Daily Expected Move • Manual VIX

QQQ Daily Expected Move • Manual VIX — Description 📈⚡

This indicator calculates the daily expected move (EM) for QQQ using a manual VIX input, then draws the projected high and low boundaries for the session.
It automatically pulls the previous day’s closing price (or today’s open if selected) and applies a volatility-based formula to estimate the range QQQ is statistically likely to stay within. 📊

How the Expected Move Is Calculated 🧮

The formula uses a simplified volatility model:

\text{Expected % Move} = \frac{\text{VIX}}{\sqrt{252}}

This percentage is then applied to your selected baseline price:

📘 Previous Close (recommended — most accurate)

🌅 Today’s Open

✏️ Custom Price

The indicator automatically plots:

🔼 Expected High

🔽 Expected Low

🏷️ Optional labels + info panel for quick reference

Choosing the Correct Baseline 🎯

The baseline matters — a lot. Using the correct anchor improves accuracy dramatically.

Previous Day’s Close (Best Practice) ✔️

This is the institutional standard used by:

🏦 Market makers

📉 Options desks

📚 Professional volatility models

Because EM reflects full-day volatility, the prior close is mathematically the most accurate anchor.

Using the VIX Input 🌡️

Enter the current VIX manually (from /VX or ^VIX).

⬆️ When VIX rises → EM widens

⬇️ When VIX falls → EM tightens

Suggested VIX-Based Adjustments 🔧

Use the multiplier to fine-tune the expected move.

VIX Level Market Condition Recommended Multiplier
🟦 < 13 Very low volatility 0.9 – slightly tighter EM
🟩 13–18 Normal conditions 1.0 (default)
🟨 18–25 Elevated volatility 1.05 – 1.1
🟧 25–35 High volatility 1.2 – 1.3
🟥 > 35 Extreme volatility 1.4 – 1.6

Multipliers help the EM adapt to different volatility regimes so the ranges remain realistic.

Why This Indicator Matters 🚀

Market makers price daily options around the expected move.
Because of this:

🧲 EM boundaries often behave like dynamic support & resistance

📛 Breaks of EM commonly trigger gamma-driven trend days

🔄 Sweeps around EM often create high-probability reversals

This tool gives traders a statistically grounded framework to anticipate where QQQ is most likely to move, stall, reverse, or expand, with clean auto-updating levels every trading day.

Adjusting the previous day’s close, opening price, and VIX input lets you model the market like a volatility desk — but in a simple, transparent format. 📘✨