NQ Hourly Stats - Detailed Prob (24h)

Hourly Sweep Statistics - Probability Engine (Credits to nqstats.com/)
Overview
This indicator is a powerful statistical tool designed for intraday traders, particularly those focused on session-based patterns and mean reversion strategies. It automatically tracks the previous hour's high, low, and open, and when a sweep of the high or low occurs, it instantly displays the historical probability of the price returning to the hourly open within that same hour.
The core of this indicator is a comprehensive probability model built on historical price data, providing traders with an objective, data-driven edge.
Key Concepts
The indicator operates on a simple but effective premise: after the high or low of the previous hour is taken, what is the statistical likelihood that price will revert back to the opening price of the current hour?
• Previous Hour High (PHH) & Previous Hour Low (PHL): These levels often act as key liquidity zones. A sweep of these levels can signify either a stop run before a reversal or the start of a strong continuation.
• Return to Open: This is a classic mean-reversion concept. The indicator quantifies the probability of this event happening based on the exact time the sweep occurs.
• Time-Based Probability: The probability of returning to the open is not static; it changes depending on when the sweep happens. A sweep in the first 5 minutes of the hour has a different statistical outcome than a sweep in the last 5 minutes. This indicator accounts for that variance by breaking down the hour into 12 distinct 5-minute buckets.
How It Works
1. Automatic Level Plotting: At the start of each new hour, the indicator automatically draws three lines on your chart:
o The Previous Hour's High (Teal, solid line)
o The Previous Hour's Low (Maroon, solid line)
o The Current Hour's Open (Gray, dotted line)
2. Sweep Detection & Labeling: The script constantly monitors price action. The moment the current price action sweeps (touches or breaks) the PHH or PHL, a label appears.
o High Sweep: A label will appear above the PHH line.
o Low Sweep: A label will appear below the PHL line.
3. Information-Rich Labels: Each label provides crucial, real-time information:
o Direction: "Took PHH" or "Took PHL".
o Time: The exact time (@ HH:MM) the sweep occurred.
o Probability: The historical probability ("Prob to Open: XX.XX%") of price returning to the hourly open after that specific sweep.
4. Dynamic Color-Coding: The labels are color-coded for at-a-glance interpretation:
o Green: High probability (>70%) - Strong statistical likelihood of returning to the open.
o Orange: Medium probability (40%-70%) - Neutral/moderate likelihood.
o Red: Low probability (<40%) - Weak statistical likelihood of returning to the open; may suggest trend continuation.
How to Use in Your Trading
This indicator is not a standalone signal generator but a powerful confluence tool to enhance your decision-making.
• Mean Reversion Setups: When a sweep occurs and a high-probability (green) label appears, it can serve as strong confirmation for a mean-reversion trade. You can look for entries on a lower timeframe, targeting the hourly open.
• Trend Continuation Setups: If a sweep generates a low-probability (red) label, it suggests that the move has strength and is less likely to reverse. This can be used to validate a breakout or trend-following strategy, or to avoid taking a counter-trend trade.
• Filtering Trades: Use the probabilities to filter your existing setups. You might choose to only take reversion trades when the probability is above a certain threshold (e.g., 70%) or avoid them entirely when the probability is low.
Features & Customization
• Full 24-Hour Data: The statistical model includes data for all 24 hours of the day, making it useful for trading any session (Asia, London, New York).
• Timezone Setting: Ensure you set the Chart Timezone input to match your chart's timezone (e.g., 'America/New_York') for the probabilities to be accurate.
• Custom Colors: All line colors are fully customizable to match your chart's theme.
Disclaimer: This indicator is based on historical statistics and does not guarantee future results. It should be used as part of a comprehensive trading plan that includes proper risk management. Always do your own research and backtesting.