OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
已更新 Daily Volatility/Amplitude Probability Dashboard
Summary
This indicator provides a powerful statistical deep-dive into an asset's daily volatility. It moves beyond simple range indicators by calculating the historical probability of a trading day reaching certain amplitude levels.
The results are presented in a clean, interactive dashboard that highlights the current day's performance in real-time, allowing traders to instantly gauge if the current volatility is normal, unusually high, or unusually low compared to history.
This tool is designed to help traders answer a critical question: "Based on past behavior, what is the likelihood that today's range will be at least X%?"
Key Concepts Explained
1. Daily Amplitude (%)
The indicator first calculates the amplitude (or range) of every historical daily candle and expresses it as a percentage of that day's opening price.
Formula: (Daily High - Daily Low) / Daily Open * 100
This normalization allows for a consistent volatility comparison across different price levels and time periods.
2. Cumulative Probability Distribution
Instead of showing the probability of a day's final range falling into a small, exclusive bin (e.g., "exactly between 1.0% and 1.5%"), this indicator uses a cumulative model. It answers the question, "What is the probability that the daily range will be at least a certain value?"
For example, if the row for "≥ 2%" shows a probability of 12.22%, it means that historically, 12.22% of all trading days have had a total range of 2% or more. This is incredibly useful for risk management and setting realistic expectations.
Core Features
Statistical Dashboard: Presents all data in a clear, easy-to-read table on your chart.
Cumulative Probability Model: Instantly see the historical probability of the daily range reaching or exceeding key percentage levels.
Real-Time Highlight & Arrow (→): The dashboard isn't just historical. It actively tracks the current, unfinished day's amplitude and highlights the corresponding row with a color and an arrow (→). This provides immediate context for the current session's price action.
Timeframe Independent: You can use this indicator on any chart timeframe (e.g., 5-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour), and it will always fetch and calculate using the correct daily data.
Clean & Professional UI: Features a monospace font for perfect alignment and a simple, readable design.
Fully Customizable: Easily adjust the dashboard's position, text size, and the amount of historical data used for the analysis.
How to Use & Interpret the Data
This indicator is not a trading signal but a powerful tool for statistical context and decision-making.
Risk Management: If you see that an asset has only a 5% historical probability of moving more than 3% in a day, you can set stop-losses more intelligently and avoid being overly aggressive with your targets on a typical day.
Setting Profit Targets: Gauge realistic intra-day profit targets. If a stock is already up 2.5% and has historically only moved more than 3% on rare occasions, you might consider taking profits.
Options Trading: Volatility is paramount for options. This tool helps you visualize the expected range of movement, which can inform decisions on strike selection for strategies like iron condors or straddles.
Identifying Volatility Regimes: Quickly see if the current day is a "normal" low-volatility day or an "abnormal" high-volatility day that could signal a major market event or trend initiation.
Dashboard Breakdown
→ (Arrow): Points to the bin corresponding to the current, live day's amplitude.
Amplitude Level: The minimum amplitude threshold. The format "≥ 1.5%" means "greater than or equal to 1.5%".
Days Reaching Level: The raw number of historical days that had an amplitude equal to or greater than the level in the first column.
Prob. of Reaching Level (%): The percentage of total days that reached that amplitude level (Days Reaching Level / Total Days Analyzed).
Settings
Position: Choose where the dashboard appears on your chart.
Text Size: Adjust the font size for better readability on your screen resolution.
Max Historical Days to Analyze: Set the lookback period for the statistical analysis. A larger number provides a more robust statistical sample but may take slightly longer to load initially.
Enjoy this tool and use it to add a new layer of statistical depth to your trading analysis.
This indicator provides a powerful statistical deep-dive into an asset's daily volatility. It moves beyond simple range indicators by calculating the historical probability of a trading day reaching certain amplitude levels.
The results are presented in a clean, interactive dashboard that highlights the current day's performance in real-time, allowing traders to instantly gauge if the current volatility is normal, unusually high, or unusually low compared to history.
This tool is designed to help traders answer a critical question: "Based on past behavior, what is the likelihood that today's range will be at least X%?"
Key Concepts Explained
1. Daily Amplitude (%)
The indicator first calculates the amplitude (or range) of every historical daily candle and expresses it as a percentage of that day's opening price.
Formula: (Daily High - Daily Low) / Daily Open * 100
This normalization allows for a consistent volatility comparison across different price levels and time periods.
2. Cumulative Probability Distribution
Instead of showing the probability of a day's final range falling into a small, exclusive bin (e.g., "exactly between 1.0% and 1.5%"), this indicator uses a cumulative model. It answers the question, "What is the probability that the daily range will be at least a certain value?"
For example, if the row for "≥ 2%" shows a probability of 12.22%, it means that historically, 12.22% of all trading days have had a total range of 2% or more. This is incredibly useful for risk management and setting realistic expectations.
Core Features
Statistical Dashboard: Presents all data in a clear, easy-to-read table on your chart.
Cumulative Probability Model: Instantly see the historical probability of the daily range reaching or exceeding key percentage levels.
Real-Time Highlight & Arrow (→): The dashboard isn't just historical. It actively tracks the current, unfinished day's amplitude and highlights the corresponding row with a color and an arrow (→). This provides immediate context for the current session's price action.
Timeframe Independent: You can use this indicator on any chart timeframe (e.g., 5-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour), and it will always fetch and calculate using the correct daily data.
Clean & Professional UI: Features a monospace font for perfect alignment and a simple, readable design.
Fully Customizable: Easily adjust the dashboard's position, text size, and the amount of historical data used for the analysis.
How to Use & Interpret the Data
This indicator is not a trading signal but a powerful tool for statistical context and decision-making.
Risk Management: If you see that an asset has only a 5% historical probability of moving more than 3% in a day, you can set stop-losses more intelligently and avoid being overly aggressive with your targets on a typical day.
Setting Profit Targets: Gauge realistic intra-day profit targets. If a stock is already up 2.5% and has historically only moved more than 3% on rare occasions, you might consider taking profits.
Options Trading: Volatility is paramount for options. This tool helps you visualize the expected range of movement, which can inform decisions on strike selection for strategies like iron condors or straddles.
Identifying Volatility Regimes: Quickly see if the current day is a "normal" low-volatility day or an "abnormal" high-volatility day that could signal a major market event or trend initiation.
Dashboard Breakdown
→ (Arrow): Points to the bin corresponding to the current, live day's amplitude.
Amplitude Level: The minimum amplitude threshold. The format "≥ 1.5%" means "greater than or equal to 1.5%".
Days Reaching Level: The raw number of historical days that had an amplitude equal to or greater than the level in the first column.
Prob. of Reaching Level (%): The percentage of total days that reached that amplitude level (Days Reaching Level / Total Days Analyzed).
Settings
Position: Choose where the dashboard appears on your chart.
Text Size: Adjust the font size for better readability on your screen resolution.
Max Historical Days to Analyze: Set the lookback period for the statistical analysis. A larger number provides a more robust statistical sample but may take slightly longer to load initially.
Enjoy this tool and use it to add a new layer of statistical depth to your trading analysis.
發行說明
- Updated layout發行說明
- Visual tweaks發行說明
- visual tweaks發行說明
- visual tweaks發行說明
- Visual tweaks發行說明
- revised frequency bins發行說明
- Added visual ranges and amplitude labels開源腳本
本著TradingView的真正精神，此腳本的創建者將其開源，以便交易者可以查看和驗證其功能。向作者致敬！雖然您可以免費使用它，但請記住，重新發佈程式碼必須遵守我們的網站規則。
creator of The Oracle 👁️ and practitioner of the binary method. Join Discord: discord.gg/NeKQBppt7z
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。
開源腳本
本著TradingView的真正精神，此腳本的創建者將其開源，以便交易者可以查看和驗證其功能。向作者致敬！雖然您可以免費使用它，但請記住，重新發佈程式碼必須遵守我們的網站規則。
creator of The Oracle 👁️ and practitioner of the binary method. Join Discord: discord.gg/NeKQBppt7z
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。