BTC 价格百分比差异柱状图

Concept of Bitfinex Premium Indicator: Bitfinex has traditionally been seen as a gathering place for “smart money” (giant whales) in the crypto market, whereas Coinbase gathers more retail investors. The difference between the two BTC/USD spot prices (Bitfinex price - Coinbase price), the so-called “premium/discount”, is often used as a way to see where the whales are moving their money docs.coinkarma.co. When the Bitfinex price is higher than the Coinbase price (positive premium), it is usually an indication that the Bitfinex price is higher than the Coinbase price (positive premium). When the Bitfinex price is higher than Coinbase (positive premium), it usually means that the big players on Bitfinex are willing to buy bitcoin at a higher price than the rest of the market, reflecting a sign that the giant whales are sucking in money on the low side; on the other hand, when the Bitfinex price is lower than the Coinbase price (negative premium, i.e., a discount), it often means that the giant whales are selling at the high end of the market, and that bitcoin is relatively “cheap” on Bitfinex. Bitcoin is relatively “cheap” on Bitfinex, indicating an increase in selling pressure at the top docs.coinkarma.co.uk. Historical experience has shown that every major bottom in Bitcoin is almost always accompanied by a premium on Bitfinex relative to other exchanges (the giant whales quietly hoarded coins), and every major top is often preceded by a discount on Bitfinex (the giant whales quietly shipped out coins) docs.coinkarma.co.uk. Coinkarma.co. Therefore, studying the Bitfinex-Coinbase daily spread is expected to capture early signals of market trend reversals.
Example of user observation: In 2024, for example, between March 21 and October 28, Bitfinex continued to have a positive premium over Coinbase, which corresponded to a long period of consolidation at the high end of the bitcoin price and multiple declines, as the giant whale took advantage of the market downturn and continued to suck in funds to construct a bottom range. In early November (around November 5th), the Bitfinex price differential turned from positive to negative and continued to be at a discount, meaning the giant whales began to hand out chips on the way up. The Bitcoin price then entered a rapid upward cycle and topped out near December 16th - highly consistent with the giant whale's discounted shipment signal. This shows that changes in the Bitfinex-Coinbase spread can reflect the arrival of a market top or bottom area in advance.