Daily Distribution Range - Amplitude Probability DashboardSummary
This indicator provides a powerful statistical deep-dive into an asset's daily distribution range, amplitude and volatility. It moves beyond simple range indicators by calculating the historical probability of a trading day reaching certain amplitude levels.
The results are presented in a clean, interactive dashboard that highlights the current day's performance in real-time, allowing traders to instantly gauge if the current volatility is normal, unusually high, or unusually low compared to history.
This tool is designed to help traders answer a critical question: "Based on past behavior, what is the likelihood that today's range will be at least X%?"
Key Concepts Explained
1. Daily Amplitude (%)
The indicator first calculates the amplitude (or range) of every historical daily candle and expresses it as a percentage of that day's opening price.
Formula: (Daily High - Daily Low) / Daily Open * 100
This normalization allows for a consistent volatility comparison across different price levels and time periods.
2. Cumulative Probability Distribution
Instead of showing the probability of a day's final range falling into a small, exclusive bin (e.g., "exactly between 1.0% and 1.5%"), this indicator uses a cumulative model. It answers the question, "What is the probability that the daily range will be at least a certain value?"
For example, if the row for "≥ 2%" shows a probability of 12.22%, it means that historically, 12.22% of all trading days have had a total range of 2% or more. This is incredibly useful for risk management and setting realistic expectations.
Core Features
Statistical Dashboard: Presents all data in a clear, easy-to-read table on your chart.
Cumulative Probability Model: Instantly see the historical probability of the daily range reaching or exceeding key percentage levels.
Real-Time Highlight & Arrow (→): The dashboard isn't just historical. It actively tracks the current, unfinished day's amplitude and highlights the corresponding row with a color and an arrow (→). This provides immediate context for the current session's price action.
Timeframe Independent: You can use this indicator on any chart timeframe (e.g., 5-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour), and it will always fetch and calculate using the correct daily data.
Clean & Professional UI: Features a monospace font for perfect alignment and a simple, readable design.
Fully Customizable: Easily adjust the dashboard's position, text size, and the amount of historical data used for the analysis.
How to Use & Interpret the Data
This indicator is not a trading signal but a powerful tool for statistical context and decision-making.
Risk Management: If you see that an asset has only a 5% historical probability of moving more than 3% in a day, you can set stop-losses more intelligently and avoid being overly aggressive with your targets on a typical day.
Setting Profit Targets: Gauge realistic intra-day profit targets. If a stock is already up 2.5% and has historically only moved more than 3% on rare occasions, you might consider taking profits.
Options Trading: Volatility is paramount for options. This tool helps you visualize the expected range of movement, which can inform decisions on strike selection for strategies like iron condors or straddles.
Identifying Volatility Regimes: Quickly see if the current day is a "normal" low-volatility day or an "abnormal" high-volatility day that could signal a major market event or trend initiation.
Dashboard Breakdown
→ (Arrow): Points to the bin corresponding to the current, live day's amplitude.
Amplitude Level: The minimum amplitude threshold. The format "≥ 1.5%" means "greater than or equal to 1.5%".
Days Reaching Level: The raw number of historical days that had an amplitude equal to or greater than the level in the first column.
Prob. of Reaching Level (%): The percentage of total days that reached that amplitude level (Days Reaching Level / Total Days Analyzed).
Settings
Position: Choose where the dashboard appears on your chart.
Text Size: Adjust the font size for better readability on your screen resolution.
Max Historical Days to Analyze: Set the lookback period for the statistical analysis. A larger number provides a more robust statistical sample but may take slightly longer to load initially.
Enjoy this tool and use it to add a new layer of statistical depth to your trading analysis.
Educational
Trading Macro Windows by BW v2
Trading Macros by BW: Integrating ICT Concepts for Session Analysis
This indicator combines two key Inner Circle Trader (ICT) concepts—Change in State of Delivery (CISD) or Inverted Fair Value Gap (IFVG) signals with Macro Time Windows—to provide a unified tool for analyzing intraday price action, particularly during Pacific Time (PT) sessions. Rather than simply merging existing scripts, this integration creates a cohesive visual framework that highlights how macro consolidation periods interact with potential reversal or continuation signals like CISD or IFVG. By overlaying macro candle styling and borders on the chart alongside selectable signal lines, traders can better contextualize setups within ICT's macro narrative, where price often manipulates liquidity during these windows before displacing toward higher-timeframe objectives.
Core Components and How They Work Together:
Macro Time Windows (Inspired by ICT's Macro Periods):
ICT emphasizes "macro" as 30-minute windows (e.g., 06:45–07:15 PT, 07:45–08:15 PT, up to 11:45–12:15 PT) where price tends to consolidate, sweep liquidity, or form key structures like Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). These periods set the stage for the session's directional bias.
The indicator styles candles within these windows using a user-defined color for wicks, borders, and bodies (translucent for visibility). This visual emphasis helps traders focus on activity inside macros, where reversals or continuations often originate.
Borders are drawn as vertical lines at the start and end of each window (with a +5 minute buffer to capture related activity), using a dotted style by default. This creates a "study zone" that encapsulates macro events, allowing traders to assess if price is respecting or violating these zones in alignment with broader ICT models like the Power of 3 (AMD cycle).
Toggle: "Macro Candles Enabled" (default: true) – Turn off to disable styling and borders if focusing solely on signals.
CISD or IFVG Signals (Selectable Mode):
Mode Selection: Choose between "Change in the State of Delivery" (CISD) or "IFVG" (default: IFVG). Both detect shifts in market delivery during specific 30-minute slices (15–45 or 17–45 minutes past the hour in PT sessions).
CISD Mode: Based on ICT's definition of a sudden directional shift, this identifies aggressive displacements after sweeping recent highs/lows. It uses a rolling reference high/low over 6 bars, checks for sweeps (penetrating by at least 2 ticks in the last 2-3 bars), reclamation (closing beyond the reference with at least 50% body), and displacement (50% of prior range or an immediate FVG of 6+ ticks). Signals plot a horizontal line from the close, extending 24 bars right, labeled "CISD."
IFVG Mode: Focuses on Inverted Fair Value Gaps, where a bullish FVG (low > high by 13+ ticks) forms but is inverted (closed below) in the same slice, signaling bearish intent (or vice versa). This targets violations against opposing liquidity, often leading to raids on external ranges. Signals plot similarly, labeled "IFVG."
Shared Logic: Both modes enforce a 55-bar cooldown to prevent clustering, operate only during PT sessions (06:30–13:00), and use tick-based thresholds for precision across instruments. The integration with macros allows traders to see if signals occur within or at the edges of macro windows, enhancing confirmation—for example, a CISD inside a macro might indicate a manipulated reversal toward the session's true objective.
Toggle: "Signals Enabled" (default: true) – Turn off to hide all signal lines and labels, isolating the macro visualization.
How Components Interact:
Macro windows provide the "narrative context" (consolidation/manipulation), while CISD/IFVG signals detect the "delivery shift" (displacement). Together, they form a mashup that justifies publication: isolated signals can be noisy, but when filtered by macro periods, they align with ICT's session model. For instance, an IFVG inversion during a macro might confirm a liquidity sweep before targeting PD arrays or order blocks.
No external dependencies; all calculations are self-contained using Pine's built-in functions like ta.highest/lowest for references and time-based sessions for windows.
Usage Guidelines:
Apply to intraday charts (e.g., 1-5 min) or stocks during PT hours.
Look for confluence: A bull IFVG signal post-macro low sweep might target the next macro high or daily bias.
Customize colors/styles for signals (solid/dashed/dotted lines) and macros to suit your chart.
Backtest in replay mode to observe how macros frame signals—e.g., price often respects macro borders as S/R.
Limitations: Timezone-fixed to PT (America/Los_Angeles); signals are directional hints, not trade entries. Combine with ICT tools like order blocks or liquidity pools for full setups.
This script draws from community ICT implementations but refines them into a single, purpose-built tool for macro-driven trading, reducing chart clutter while emphasizing interconnected concepts. Feedback welcome!
TASC 2025.09 The Continuation Index
█ OVERVIEW
This script implements the "Continuation Index" as described by John F. Ehlers in the September 2025 edition of TASC's Trader's Tips . The Continuation Index uses Laguerre filters (featured in the July 2025 edition) to provide an early indication of trend direction, continuation, and exhaustion.
█ CONCEPTS
The idea for the Continuation Index was formed from an observation about Laguerre filters. In his article, Ehlers notes that when price is in trend, it tends to stay to one side of the filter. When considering smoothing, the UltimateSmoother was an obvious choice to reduce lag. With that in mind, The Continuation Index normalizes the difference between UltimateSmoother and the Laguerre filter to produce a two-state oscillator.
To minimize lag, the UltimateSmoother length in this indicator is fixed to half the length of the Laguerre filter.
█ USAGE
The Continuation Index consists of two primary states.
+1 suggests that the trader should position on the long side.
-1 suggests that the user should position on the short side.
Other readings can imply other opportunities, such as:
High Value Fluctuation could be used as a "buy the dip" opportunity.
Low Value Fluctuation could be used as a "sell the pop" opportunity.
█ INPUTS
By understanding the inputs and adjusting them as needed, each trader can benefit more from this indicator:
Gamma : Controls the Laguerre filter's response. This can be set anywhere between 0 and 1. If set to 0, the filter’s value will be the same as the UltimateSmoother.
Order : Controls the lag of the Laguerre filter, which is important when considering the timing of the system for spotting reversals. This can be set from 1 to 10, with lower values typically producing faster timing.
Length : Affects the smoothing of the display. Ehlers recommends starting with this value set to the intended amount of time you plan to hold a position. Consider your chart timeframe when setting this input. For example, on a daily chart, if you intend to hold a position for one month, set a value of 20.
Script Info BannerThe script includes a small template displaying the username, script name, and date of analysis. This feature is implemented to establish credibility and prevent unauthorized use of the analysis.
Impulse Convexity Trend Gate [T1][T69]OVERVIEW 🧭
• A price-only trend engine that opens a “gate” only when trend strength, acceleration, and impulse dominance align.
• Built from three cooperating parts: adaptive slope, directional convexity, and an impulse-vs-pullback ratio.
• Output is a bounded oscillator (−100…+100) plus side-specific gate states (bull/bear), with optional pullback and weakness highlights.
THE IDEA & USEFULNESS 🧪
• Not a simple mashup: each component plays a distinct role—slope for direction, convexity for acceleration agreement, and an impulse ratio to suppress correction noise.
• Adaptive EMA length (series-based) lets the midline adjust to conditions without external indicators.
• Approximation of hyperbolic tangent and clamp keep signals bounded and stable while avoiding library dependencies.
• Designed to help trend traders act only when continuation is likely, and stand down during pullbacks or chop.
HOW IT WORKS (PIPELINE) ⚙️
• Price transform
• Uses log price for scale stability.
• Adaptive midline
• Volatility-aware EMA length is clamped between minimum and maximum, then applied via a custom recursive EMA.
• Slope & convexity
• Slope (first difference of the midline) defines direction; convexity (second difference) verifies acceleration agrees with that direction.
• Impulse vs pullback ratio (R)
• Sums directional progress versus counter-direction pullbacks over a window; requires impulse to dominate.
• Normalization & score
• Slope and convexity are normalized by recent dispersion; combined into a raw score and squashed to −100…+100 using manual tanh.
• Trend gate
• Gate opens only when: R ≥ threshold, |normalized slope| ≥ threshold, and slope/convexity share the same sign.
• States & visuals
• Bull/Bear Gate Entry when gate is open, oscillator crosses ±15 in the correct direction, price is on the correct side of the midline, and slope/convexity agree.
• Pullbacks mark counter-moves while a gate is active; Weakness flags specific fade patterns after pullbacks.
FEATURES ✨
• Bull and Bear Gate Entries (green/red columns).
• Pullback shading and optional trend-weakness highlights (yellow/orange + teal/maroon).
• Background tint reflects the active side (bull or bear).
• Pure price logic; no volume or external filters required.
HOW TO USE 🎯
• Regime filter
• Trade only in the direction of the open gate; ignore signals when the gate is closed.
• Pullback entries
• During an open gate, wait for a pullback zone, then act on trend-resumption (e.g., oscillator re-push through ±15 or structure break in gate direction).
• Exits & risk
• Consider trimming when the oscillator relaxes toward 0 while the gate remains open, or when convexity flips against slope and R deteriorates.
• Timeframes & markets
• Suited for trend following on crypto/FX/indices from M30 to 4H/1D; raise thresholds on lower timeframes to reduce noise.
CONFIGURATION 🔧
• Impulse ratio gate (R ≥): raises/lowers the standard for continuation dominance.
• Slope strength gate (|sN| ≥): controls how strong a slope must be to count.
• Show Pullback Impulse (toggle): enable/disable pullback highlights.
• Show Trend Weakness (toggle): enable/disable weakness flags.
LIMITATIONS ⚠️
• As a trend tool, it can lag at regime transitions; expect whipsaws in tight ranges.
• Parameters are instrument- and timeframe-dependent; tune thresholds before live use.
• Pullback/weakness flags are contextual—not trade signals by themselves; use them with gate state and your execution rules.
ADVANCED TIPS 🛠️
• Tighten R and slope thresholds for lower timeframes; loosen for higher timeframes.
• Pair with NNFX-style money management and pair-level filters; let the gate be the confirmation layer, not the entry trigger by itself.
• Batch-test across 100+ symbols, export metrics, and run Monte Carlo to validate LLN reliability and Sharpe/IQR stability.
• For system hedging, disable entries when both sides trigger on the same asset to avoid internal conflict.
NOTES 📝
• Price-only construction reduces data-vendor differences and keeps behavior consistent across markets.
• Manual tanh/clamp ensure stable, bounded scores even during extremes.
DISCLAIMER 🛡️
• For research and education. No financial advice. Test thoroughly, size conservatively, and respect your risk rules.
word clockUsers can select their preferred local timezone. The default is set to (UTC+3).
Multiple Timezone Options Available:
• Europe/Istanbul (default)
• UTC
• Europe/London
• Europe/Paris
• Europe/Berlin
• America/New_York
• America/Chicago
• America/Los_Angeles
• Asia/Tokyo
• Asia/Shanghai
• Asia/Hong_Kong
• Asia/Kolkata
• Australia/Sydney
Market Hours in Local Time:
With the setting enabled, users can view all market sessions converted to their selected local time.
Dynamic Time Conversion:
The function automatically converts each exchange’s market hours into the user’s selected local timezone.
///// You can replace the second "Europe/Istanbul" on line 18 with your own city to adjust the local time accordingly. you can choose your city , formatted with city names and their corresponding timezone codes—separated by commas and spaces, ready for use in TradingView or documentation: >>> Abu Dhabi, Asia/Muscat, Adelaide, Australia/Adelaide, Almaty, Asia/Almaty, Amsterdam, Europe/Amsterdam, Ankara, Europe/Istanbul, Auckland, Pacific/Auckland, Bangkok, Asia/Bangkok, Barcelona, Europe/Madrid, Beijing, Asia/Shanghai, Berlin, Europe/Berlin, Bogota, America/Bogota, Brisbane, Australia/Brisbane, Brussels, Europe/Brussels, Bucharest, Europe/Bucharest, Budapest, Europe/Budapest, Buenos Aires, America/Argentina/Buenos_Aires, Cairo, Africa/Cairo, Calgary, America/Edmonton, Cape Town, Africa/Johannesburg, Caracas, America/Caracas, Chicago, America/Chicago, Colombo, Asia/Colombo, Copenhagen, Europe/Copenhagen, Delhi, Asia/Kolkata, Dubai, Asia/Dubai, Dublin, Europe/Dublin, Frankfurt, Europe/Berlin, Geneva, Europe/Zurich, Helsinki, Europe/Helsinki, Hong Kong, Asia/Hong_Kong, Honolulu, Pacific/Honolulu, Istanbul, Europe/Istanbul, Jakarta, Asia/Jakarta, Johannesburg, Africa/Johannesburg, Karachi, Asia/Karachi, Kiev, Europe/Kiev, Kuala Lumpur, Asia/Kuala_Lumpur, Lagos, Africa/Lagos, Lima, America/Lima, Lisbon, Europe/Lisbon, London, Europe/London, Los Angeles, America/Los_Angeles, Madrid, Europe/Madrid, Manila, Asia/Manila, Melbourne, Australia/Melbourne, Mexico City, America/Mexico_City, Milan, Europe/Rome, Montreal, America/Toronto, Moscow, Europe/Moscow, Mumbai, Asia/Kolkata, Nairobi, Africa/Nairobi, New York, America/New_York, Oslo, Europe/Oslo, Paris, Europe/Paris, Perth, Australia/Perth, Prague, Europe/Prague, Riyadh, Asia/Riyadh, Rome, Europe/Rome, Santiago, America/Santiago, São Paulo, America/Sao_Paulo, Seoul, Asia/Seoul, Shanghai, Asia/Shanghai, Singapore, Asia/Singapore, Stockholm, Europe/Stockholm, Sydney, Australia/Sydney, Taipei, Asia/Taipei, Tel Aviv, Asia/Jerusalem, Tokyo, Asia/Tokyo, Toronto, America/Toronto, Vancouver, America/Vancouver, Vienna, Europe/Vienna, Warsaw, Europe/Warsaw, Wellington, Pacific/Auckland, Zurich, Europe/Zurich
ORB & Sessions [Capitalize Labs]ORB & Sessions Indicator
The ORB & Sessions Indicator provides a structured way to analyze intraday price action by combining two well-established concepts: global trading sessions and Opening Range Breakouts (ORB). It is designed to help traders identify where liquidity forms, when volatility expands, and how price behaves around key session and range levels.
Market Sessions Framework
Displays New York, London, and Asian sessions directly on the chart.
Each session can be shown as a highlighted background zone, or with extended highs and lows for liquidity tracking.
Session highs and lows remain projected forward after the session ends, allowing traders to monitor sweeps, retests, and reactions throughout the day.
Session times are fully customizable and can be aligned with the trader’s own timezone or broker feed.
This structure helps traders place price action into context, whether during quiet Asian trading, London-driven volatility, or New York reversals.
Opening Range Breakouts (ORB)
Supports three independent ORBs, each with configurable session times.
During the defined ORB window, the indicator captures the high and low of the range and plots a live updating box.
Once the ORB closes, the range locks and projects breakout targets (T1 and T2) based on user-defined risk-to-reward multiples.
Alerts are included for breakouts of highs, lows, or target levels.
Traders can use a single ORB or multiple—for example, tracking an Asian ORB into London, or London into New York.
Visualization and Clarity
Color-coded boxes and levels for sessions and ORBs.
Labels such as “Range High” and “Range Low” ensure clarity without clutter.
Flexible display settings allow highlighting full zones, just lines, or minimal markers depending on preference.
Practical Applications
This indicator is useful for:
Liquidity and volatility analysis: Observe where session highs and lows form and how they influence later trading.
Breakout and reversal strategies: Use ORB ranges to define risk and plan target projections.
Time-based research: Explore how different session overlaps or ORBs affect markets like indices, FX, and commodities.
Risk planning: Built-in R-multiple targets provide a consistent framework for evaluating setups.
Why It’s Different
Instead of showing sessions and ORBs separately, this indicator integrates them into one framework. Traders can:
See when and where sessions open and establish range levels.
Define precise ORBs with customizable timing.
Track breakout levels and targets in real time with alerts.
The result is a clear, time-structured view of the trading day, helping traders align setups with session dynamics and opening range behavior.
This indicator does not generate buy or sell signals. It is an analytical and visualization tool, providing structure for traders to better interpret intraday price action.
Transfer Function Filter [theUltimator5]The Transfer Function Filter is an engineering style approach to transform the price action on a chart into a frequency, then filter out unwanted signals using Butterworth-style filter approach.
This indicator allows you to analyze market structure by isolating or removing different frequency components of price movement—similar to how engineers filter signals in control systems and electrical circuits.
🔎 Features
Four Filter Types
1) Low Pass Filter – Smooths price data, highlighting long-term trends while filtering out short-term noise. This filter acts similar to an EMA, removing noisy signals, resulting in a smooth curve that follows the price of the stock relative to the filter cutoff settings.
Real world application for low pass filter - Used in power supplies to provide a clean, stable power level.
2) High Pass Filter – Removes slow-moving trends to emphasize short-term volatility and rapid fluctuations. The high pass filter removes the "DC" level of the chart, removing the average price moves and only outputting volatility.
Real world application for high pass filter - Used in audio equalizers to remove low-frequency noise (like rumble) while allowing higher frequencies to pass through, improving sound clarity.
3) Band Pass Filter – Allows signals to plot only within a band of bar ranges. This filter removes the low pass "DC" level and the high pass "high frequency noise spikes" and shows a signal that is effectively a smoothed volatility curve. This acts like a moving average for volatility.
Real world application for band pass filter - Radio stations only allow certain frequency bands so you can change your radio channel by switching which frequency band your filter is set to.
4) Band Stop Filter – Suppresses specific frequency bands (cycles between two cutoffs). This filter allows through the base price moving average, but keeps the high frequency volatility spikes. It allows you to filter out specific time interval price action.
Real world application for band stop filter - If there is prominent frequency signal in the area which can cause unnecessary noise in your system, a band stop filter can cancel out just that frequency so you get everything else
Configurable Parameters
• Cutoff Periods – Define the cycle lengths (in bars) to filter. This is a bit counter-intuitive with the numbering since the higher the bar count on the low-pass filter, the lower the frequency cutoff is. The opposite holds true for the high pass filter.
• Filter Order – Adjust steepness and responsiveness (higher order = sharper filtering, but with more delay).
• Overlay Option – Display Low Pass & Band Stop outputs directly on the price chart, or in a separate pane. This is enabled by default, plotting the filters that mimic moving averages directly onto the chart.
• Source Selection – Apply filters to close, open, high, low, or custom sources.
Histograms for Comparison
• BS–LP Histogram – Shows distance between Band Stop and Low Pass filters.
• BP–HP Histogram – Highlights differences between Band Pass and High Pass filters.
Histograms give the visualization of a pseudo-MACD style indicator
Visual & Informational Aids
• Customizable colors for each filter line.
• Optional zero-line for histogram reference.
• On-chart info table summarizing active filters, cutoff settings, histograms, and filter order.
📊 Use Cases
Trend Detection – Use the Low Pass filter to smooth noise and follow underlying market direction.
Volatility & Cycle Analysis – Apply High Pass or Band Pass to capture shorter-term patterns.
Noise Suppression – Deploy Band Stop to remove specific choppy frequencies.
Momentum Insight – Watch the histograms to spot divergences and relative filter strength.
BTC Power Law Valuation BandsBTC Power Law Rainbow
A long-term valuation framework for Bitcoin based on Power Law growth — designed to help identify macro accumulation and distribution zones, aligned with long-term investor behavior.
🔍 What Is a Power Law?
A Power Law is a mathematical relationship where one quantity varies as a power of another. In this model:
Price ≈ a × (Time)^b
It captures the non-linear, exponentially slowing growth of Bitcoin over time. Rather than using linear or cyclical models, this approach aligns with how complex systems, such as networks or monetary adoption curves, often grow — rapidly at first, and then more slowly, but persistently.
🧠 Why Power Law for BTC?
Bitcoin:
Has finite supply and increasing adoption.
Operates as a monetary network , where Metcalfe’s Law and power laws naturally emerge.
Exhibits exponential growth over logarithmic time when viewed on a log-log chart .
This makes it uniquely well-suited for power law modeling.
🌈 How to Use the Valuation Bands
The central white line represents the modeled fair value according to the power law.
Colored bands represent deviations from the model in logarithmic space, acting as macro zones:
🔵 Lower Bands: Deep value / Accumulation zones.
🟡 Mid Bands: Fair value.
🔴 Upper Bands: Euphoria / Risk of macro tops.
📐 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Alignment
Accumulation: Occurs when price consolidates near lower bands — often aligning with institutional positioning.
Markup: As price re-enters or ascends the bands, we often see breakout behavior and trend expansion.
Distribution: When price extends above upper bands, potential for exit liquidity creation and distribution events.
Reversion: Historically, price mean-reverts toward the model — rarely staying outside the bands for long.
This makes the model useful for:
Cycle timing
Long-term DCA strategy zones
Identifying value dislocations
Filtering short-term noise
⚠️ Disclaimer
This tool is for educational and informational purposes only . It is not financial advice. The power law model is a non-predictive, mathematical framework and does not guarantee future price movements .
Always use additional tools, risk management, and your own judgment before making trading or investment decisions.
MACROFLOW 200 — Bias & Triggersstephtradez model
MACROFLOW 200 — at a glance (the elevator pitch)
Trade direction = Macro Bias + 1H 200 EMA filter + DXY confirm.
Locations = 1H supply/demand zones.
Triggers (15m): (T1) Retest rejection, (T2) Liquidity sweep + BOS/CHOCH, (T3) Momentum break + shallow pullback.
Stops: structure‑based beyond zone with ATR buffer.
Targets: 2R base, scale at 1.5R, trail to next HTF zone.
Sessions: 7–10 pm ET and 9:30–10:30 am ET.
Risk: tight, prop‑friendly max 1% per session
NAS100 Component Sentiment Scanner# NAS100 Component Sentiment Scanner
## 🎯 Overview
The NAS100 Component Sentiment Scanner analyzes the top-weighted stocks in the NASDAQ-100 index to provide real-time bullish/bearish sentiment signals that can help predict NAS100 price movements. This indicator combines multiple technical analysis methods to give traders a comprehensive view of underlying market sentiment.
## 📊 How It Works
The indicator calculates sentiment scores for major NASDAQ-100 components (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA, AVGO, COST, NFLX) using:
- **RSI Analysis**: Identifies overbought/oversold conditions
- **Moving Average Trends**: Compares fast vs slow MA positioning
- **Volume Confirmation**: Validates moves with volume thresholds
- **Price Momentum**: Analyzes recent price direction
- **Market Cap Weighting**: Uses actual NASDAQ-100 weightings for accuracy
## 🚀 Key Features
### Real-Time Sentiment Analysis
- Weighted composite score based on individual stock analysis
- Color-coded sentiment line (Green = Bullish, Red = Bearish)
- Dynamic background coloring for strong signals
### Interactive Data Table
- Shows individual stock scores and signals
- Bullish/Bearish stock count summary
- Customizable position and size
### Smart Signal System
- **Bullish Signals**: Green triangle up when sentiment crosses threshold
- **Bearish Signals**: Red triangle down when sentiment falls below threshold
- **Alert Conditions**: Automatic notifications for signal changes
## ⚙️ Customization Options
### Technical Analysis Settings
- **RSI Period**: Adjust lookback period (default: 14)
- **RSI Levels**: Set overbought/oversold thresholds
- **Moving Averages**: Configure fast/slow MA periods
- **Volume Threshold**: Set volume confirmation multiplier
### Signal Thresholds
- **Bullish/Bearish Levels**: Customize trigger points
- **Strong Signal Levels**: Set extreme sentiment thresholds
- Fine-tune sensitivity to market conditions
### Display Options
- **Toggle Table**: Show/hide sentiment data table
- **Table Position**: 6 position options (Top/Bottom/Middle + Left/Right)
- **Table Size**: Choose from Tiny, Small, Normal, or Large
- **Background Colors**: Enable/disable signal backgrounds
- **Signal Arrows**: Show/hide buy/sell indicators
### Stock Selection
- **Individual Control**: Enable/disable any of the 10 major stocks
- **Dynamic Weighting**: Automatically adjusts calculations based on selected stocks
- **Flexible Analysis**: Focus on specific sectors or market leaders
## 📈 How to Use
### 1. Basic Setup
1. Add the indicator to your NAS100 chart
2. Default settings work well for most traders
3. Observe the sentiment line and signals
### 2. Signal Interpretation
- **Score > 30**: Bullish bias for NAS100
- **Score > 50**: Strong bullish signal
- **Score -30 to 30**: Neutral/consolidation
- **Score < -30**: Bearish bias for NAS100
- **Score < -50**: Strong bearish signal
### 3. Trading Strategies
**Trend Following:**
- Buy NAS100 when bullish signals appear
- Sell/short when bearish signals trigger
- Use background colors for quick visual confirmation
**Divergence Trading:**
- Watch for sentiment/price divergences
- Strong sentiment with weak NAS100 price = potential breakout
- Weak sentiment with strong NAS100 price = potential reversal
**Consensus Trading:**
- Monitor bullish/bearish stock counts in table
- 8+ stocks aligned = strong directional bias
- Mixed signals = wait for clearer consensus
### 4. Advanced Usage
- Combine with your existing NAS100 trading strategy
- Use multiple timeframes for confirmation
- Adjust thresholds based on market volatility
- Focus on specific stocks by disabling others
## 🔔 Alert Setup
The indicator includes built-in alert conditions:
1. Go to TradingView Alerts
2. Select "NAS100 Component Sentiment Scanner"
3. Choose from available alert types:
- NAS100 Bullish Signal
- NAS100 Bearish Signal
- Strong Bullish Consensus
- Strong Bearish Consensus
## 💡 Pro Tips
### Optimization
- **High Volatility**: Increase signal thresholds (±40, ±60)
- **Low Volatility**: Decrease thresholds (±20, ±40)
- **Day Trading**: Use smaller table, focus on real-time signals
- **Swing Trading**: Enable background colors, larger thresholds
### Best Practices
- Don't use as a standalone system - combine with price action
- Check individual stock table for context
- Monitor during market open for most reliable signals
- Consider earnings seasons for individual stock impacts
### Market Conditions
- **Trending Markets**: Higher accuracy, use with trend following
- **Ranging Markets**: Watch for false signals, increase thresholds
- **News Events**: Individual stock news can skew sentiment temporarily
## 🎨 Visual Guide
- **Green Line Above Zero**: Bullish sentiment building
- **Red Line Below Zero**: Bearish sentiment building
- **Background Color Changes**: Strong signal confirmation
- **Triangle Arrows**: Entry/exit signal points
- **Table Colors**: Quick sentiment overview
## ⚠️ Important Notes
- This indicator analyzes component stocks, not NAS100 directly
- Market cap weightings approximate real NASDAQ-100 weightings
- Sentiment can change rapidly during volatile periods
- Always use proper risk management
- Combine with other technical analysis tools
## 🔧 Troubleshooting
- **No signals**: Check if thresholds are too extreme
- **Too many signals**: Increase threshold sensitivity
- **Table not showing**: Ensure "Show Sentiment Table" is enabled
- **Missing stocks**: Verify individual stock toggles in settings
---
**Suitable for**: Day traders, swing traders, NAS100 specialists, index traders
**Best Timeframes**: 5min, 15min, 1H, 4H
**Market Sessions**: US market hours for highest accuracy
MA Suite | Lyro RSMA Suite | Lyro RS
Overview
The MA Suite is a versatile moving average visualization tool designed for traders who demand clarity, flexibility, and actionable market signals. With support for over 16 different moving average types, built-in trend detection, dynamic coloring, and optional support/resistance & rejection markers, it transforms the humble MA into a fully-featured decision-making aid.
Key Features
Multi-Type Moving Averages
Choose from 16 MA calculations including SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA, HMA, LSMA, FRAMA, KAMA, JMA, T3, and more.
Tailor responsiveness vs. smoothness to your strategy.
Trend Logic Modes
Source Above MA – Colors and signals are based on price position relative to the MA.
Rising MA – Colors and signals are determined by MA slope direction.
Support & Resistance Markers
Plots ▲ for potential support touches.
Plots ▼ for potential resistance touches when price interacts with the MA.
Rejection Signals
Flags bullish rejection when price bounces upward after an MA test.
Flags bearish rejection when price reverses downward after an MA test.
Plotted directly on the chart as labeled markers.
Customizable Color Palettes
Select from Classic, Mystic, Accented, or Royal themes.
Define custom bullish/bearish colors for complete visual control.
Glow & Styling Effects
Multi-layer glow lines around the MA enhance visibility.
Keeps charts clean while improving clarity.
How It Works
MA Calculation – Applies the chosen MA type to your selected price source.
Trend Coloring – Colors switch based on price position or MA slope logic.
Support/Resistance Detection – Identifies MA “touch” events with ▲ or ▼ markers.
Rejection Logic – Detects reversals after MA touches, adding bullish/bearish labels.
Practical Use
Trend Following – In “Source Above MA” mode, use color changes and crossovers to confirm bias.
Dynamic S/R – Use ▲ / ▼ markers to identify support or resistance in trending or ranging markets.
Reversal Opportunities – Monitor rejection labels for potential turning points against prevailing trend.
Customization
Select MA type and length to fine-tune indicator behavior.
Switch between trend modes for different trading styles.
Enable or disable S/R and rejection markers.
Personalize visuals with palette selection or custom colors.
⚠️Disclaimer
This indicator is a tool for technical analysis and does not provide guaranteed results. It should be used in conjunction with other analysis methods and proper risk management practices. The creators of this indicator are not responsible for any financial decisions made based on its signals.
Fibo Swing MFI by julzALGOOVERVIEW
Fibo Swing MFI by julzALGO blends MFI → RSI → Least-Squares smoothing to flag overbought/oversold swings and continuously plot Fibonacci retracements from the rolling high/low of the last 200 bars. It’s built to spot momentum shifts while giving you a clean, always-current fib map of the recent market range.
CORE PRINCIPLES
Hybrid Momentum Signal
- Uses MFI to integrate price and volume.
- Applies RSI to MFI for momentum clarity.
- Smooths the result with Least Squares regression to reduce noise.
Swing Identification
- Marks potential swing highs when momentum is overbought.
- Marks potential swing lows when momentum is oversold.
Fixed-Window Fibonacci Mapping
- Always calculates fib levels from the highest high and lowest low of the last 200 bars.
- This keeps fib zones consistent, independent of swing point detection.
Visual Clarity & Non-Repainting Logic
- Clean labels for OB/OS zones.
- Lines and levels update only as new bars confirm changes.
Adaptability
- Works on any market and timeframe.
- Adjustable momentum length, OB/OS thresholds, and smoothing.
HOW IT WORKS
- Computes Money Flow Index (MFI) from price & volume.
- Applies RSI to the MFI for clearer OB/OS momentum.
- Smooths the hybrid with a Least Squares (linear regression) filter.
- Swing labels appear when OB/OS conditions are met (green = swing low, red = swing high).
- Fibonacci retracements are always drawn from the highest high and lowest low of the last 200 bars (rolling window), independent of swing labels.
HOW TO USE
- Watch for OB/OS flips to mark potential swing highs/lows.
- Use the 200-bar fib grid as your active map of pullback levels and reaction zones.
- Combine fib reactions with your price action/volume cues for confirmation.
- Works across markets and timeframes.
SETTINGS
- Length – Period for both MFI and RSI.
- OB/OS Levels – Overbought/oversold thresholds (default 70/30).
- Smooth – Least-Squares smoothing length.
- Fibonacci Window – Fixed at 200 bars in this version (changeable in code via fibLen).
NOTES
- Logic is non-repainting aside from standard bar/label confirmation.
- Increase Length on very low timeframes to reduce noise.
- Swing labels help context; fibs are always based on the most recent 200-bar high/low range.
SUMMARY
Fibo Swing MFI by julzALGO is a momentum-plus-price action tool that merges MFI → RSI → smoothing to identify overbought/oversold swings and automatically plot Fibonacci retracements based on the rolling high/low of the last 200 bars. It’s designed to help traders quickly see potential reversal points and pullback zones, offering visual confluence between momentum shifts and fixed-window price structure.
DISCLAIMER
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade responsibly with proper risk management.
Becak I-series: Indicator Floating Panels v.80Becak I-series: Floating Panels v.80th (Indonesia Independence Days)
What it does:
This indicator creates three floating overlay panels that display MACD, RSI, and Stochastic oscillators directly on your price chart. Unlike traditional separate panes, these panels hover over your chart with customizable positioning and transparency, providing a clean, space-efficient way to monitor multiple technical indicators simultaneously.
When to use:
When you need to monitor momentum, trend strength, and overbought/oversold conditions without cluttering your workspace
Perfect for traders who want quick visual access to multiple oscillators while maintaining focus on price action
Ideal for any timeframe and asset class (stocks, crypto, forex, commodities)
How it works:
The script calculates standard MACD (12,26,9), RSI (14), and Stochastic (14,3,3) values, then renders them as floating panels with:
MACD Panel: Shows MACD line (blue), Signal line (orange), and histogram (green/red bars)
RSI Panel: Displays RSI line (purple) with overbought (70) and oversold (30) reference levels
Stochastic Panel: Shows %K (blue) and %D (orange) lines with optional buy/sell signals and highlighted overbought/oversold zones
Customization options:
Position: Choose Top, Bottom, or Auto-Center placement
Size: Adjust panel height (15-35% of chart) and spacing between panels
Positioning: Fine-tune vertical center offset and horizontal positioning
Appearance: Toggle panel backgrounds and adjust transparency (50-95%)
Parameters: Modify all indicator lengths and overbought/oversold levels
Signals: Enable/disable Stochastic crossover signals
Display: Control lookback period (30-100 bars) and right margin spacing
Universal compatibility: Works seamlessly across all asset types with automatic range detection and scaling.
DIRGAHAYU HARI KEMERDEKAAN KE 80 - INDONESIA ... MERDEKA!!!!!
Previous Day Fibonacci + Opening RangePrev Day Fibonacci & Opening Range Levels
This indicator is designed for professional traders who want to combine yesterday’s market structure with today’s intraday levels.
🔹 Features:
Automatic Fibonacci Retracements: Draws customizable Fibonacci retracement/extension levels based on the previous day’s High & Low.
Full Customization: Users can adjust the Fibonacci ratios and colors directly in settings.
Opening Range Levels: Plots today’s first candle High & Low (user-selectable timeframe for OR).
Clear Visuals: Helps identify key reversal zones, breakout levels, and confluence areas between higher timeframe structure and intraday moves.
🔹 Usage Ideas:
Spot potential reversal zones when price reacts to previous-day Fib levels.
Combine Opening Range breakout strategies with daily Fib levels for high-probability setups.
Use as confluence levels with your existing price action or indicator-based strategy.
⚡ Pro Tip: Look for overlaps between the Opening Range and Fibonacci retracements — these zones often act as strong support/resistance areas.
Currency Strength v3.0Currency Strength v3.0
Summary
The Currency Strength indicator is a powerful tool designed to gauge the relative strength of major and emerging market currencies. By plotting the True Strength Index (TSI) of various currency indices, it provides a clear visual representation of which currencies are gaining momentum and which are losing it. This indicator automatically detects the currency pair on your chart and highlights the corresponding strength lines, simplifying analysis and helping you quickly identify potential trading opportunities based on currency dynamics.
Key Features
Comprehensive Currency Analysis: Tracks the strength of 19 currencies, including major pairs and several emerging market currencies.
Automatic Pair Detection: Intelligently identifies the base and quote currency of the active chart, automatically highlighting the relevant strength lines.
Dynamic Coloring: The base currency is consistently colored blue, and the quote currency is colored gold, making it easy to distinguish between the two at a glance.
Non-Repainting TSI Calculation: Uses the True Strength Index (TSI) for smooth and reliable momentum readings that do not repaint.
Customizable Settings: Allows for adjustment of the fast and slow periods for the TSI calculation to fit your specific trading style.
Clean Interface: Features a minimalist legend table that only displays the currencies relevant to your current chart, keeping your workspace uncluttered.
How It Works
The indicator pulls data from major currency indices (like DXY for the US Dollar and EXY for the Euro). For currencies that don't have a dedicated index, it uses their USD pair (e.g., USDCNY) and inverts the calculation to derive the currency's strength relative to the dollar. It then applies the True Strength Index (TSI) to this data. The TSI is a momentum oscillator that is less volatile than other oscillators, providing a more reliable measure of strength. The resulting values are plotted on the chart, allowing you to see how different currencies are performing against each other in real-time.
How to Use
Trend Confirmation: When the base currency's line is rising and above the zero line, and the quote currency's line is falling, it can confirm a bullish trend for the pair. The opposite would suggest a bearish trend.
Identifying Divergences: Look for divergences between the currency strength lines and the price action of the pair. For example, if the price is making higher highs but the base currency's strength is making lower highs, it could signal a potential reversal.
Crossovers: A crossover of the base and quote currency lines can signal a shift in momentum. A bullish signal occurs when the base currency line crosses above the quote currency line. A bearish signal occurs when it crosses below.
Overbought/Oversold Levels: The horizontal dashed lines at 0.5 and -0.5 can be used as general guides for overbought and oversold conditions, respectively. Strength moving beyond these levels may indicate an unsustainable move that is due for a correction.
Settings
Fast Period: The short-term period for the TSI calculation. Default is 7.
Slow Period: The long-term period for the TSI calculation. Default is 15.
Index Source: The price source used for the calculations (e.g., Close, Open). Default is Close.
Base Currency Color: The color for the base currency line. Default is Royal Blue.
Quote Currency Color: The color for the quote currency line. Default is Goldenrod.
Disclaimer
This indicator is intended for educational and analytical purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and risk management before making any trading decisions.
RSI Divergence Buy/Sell Alertsbuy or sell when bullish or bearish divergence occurs in and over sold or over bought condition
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience
In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.
Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather."
The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients.
Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance.
The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios.
The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification.
Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting.
The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing.
The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years.
The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions.
Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets.
In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors.
The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts.
Understanding the Four Economic Seasons
The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks.
This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously.
Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework.
The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication
The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities.
The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility.
The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits.
The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns.
Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001).
Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks
Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios.
During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance.
More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time.
The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly.
However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money."
Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide
The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies.
To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes.
For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error.
At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges.
The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management.
For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations.
The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance.
Understanding the Indicator's Functionality
The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software.
The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets.
DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS
Portfolio Configuration Module
The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period.
The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs.
Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures.
The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures.
Visual Display System
The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table.
Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit.
Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention.
Advanced Label System
The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol.
"Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail.
"Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required.
Professional Color Themes
Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts.
"Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations.
Real-Time Portfolio Tracking
The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift.
Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors.
Performance Analytics Suite
The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance.
Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality.
Data Quality Monitoring
Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations.
When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions.
Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations
Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns.
Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s.
Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times.
Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management.
Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities.
Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis
Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities.
ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually.
Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees.
Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually.
For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000.
Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth.
Alternative Implementations and Customizations
While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities.
Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies.
Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts.
Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management.
Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error.
Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game
The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence.
The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth.
Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance.
The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation.
For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons.
As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds.
STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE
Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance.
Initial Setup Process
Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart.
Portfolio Configuration Settings
Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision.
Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking.
Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection.
Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading.
Display Configuration Options
Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users.
Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions.
Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities.
Advanced Label Customization
Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods.
Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF.
Appearance Customization
Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making.
Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme.
Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility.
Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues
If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components.
When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels.
If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization.
COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING
PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS
Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS
Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research.
Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations.
Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39.
Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127.
Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53.
Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS
Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427.
Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427.
ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press.
Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12.
CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59.
Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar.
PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH
Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management
Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research
Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy
RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE
For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky.
Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes.
Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
U Table • LITEA compact, educational version of my workflow that combines trend, momentum, trend strength, and a clean trigger:
Trend: EMA Fast vs EMA Slow (auto-lengths by chart TF)
Momentum: RSI > 50 for longs / < 50 for shorts
Strength: ADX above a user-set threshold (fallback implementation; can be replaced by ta.adx() when available)
Trigger: price crosses the Bollinger basis (center line)
Signals
LONG: crossover(close, BB basis) while EMA Fast > EMA Slow, RSI > 50, ADX > threshold
SHORT: crossunder(close, BB basis) while EMA Fast < EMA Slow, RSI < 50, ADX > threshold
Visuals
EMA Fast / EMA Slow / BB basis
Markers “L” / “S” on triggers
Latest confirmed pivot high/low (broken line style)
Small diagnostics table (ADX, EMA relation, RSI, last pivots) on the last bar
Inputs
Pivot length: pivot confirmation window (default 5)
ADX threshold: minimum trend strength to allow signals (default 20)
Notes
Signals are intended to be evaluated on bar close. Intrabar values may change until the bar closes.
Pivot lines appear after confirmation; they do not repaint once confirmed.
No external data or security() calls are used.
This LITE build focuses on clarity and speed (few calculations, overlay-friendly). It can be used as a stand-alone study or as a scaffold for your own research and risk management.
EMA Cross by TejasFor all Free Sub users. Feel free to use it everywhere. Mostly ASTA students. Very Eaasy to use with signals.
Index Options Expirations and Calendar EffectsFeatures
- Highlights monthly equity options expiration (opex) dates.
- Marks VIX options expiration dates based on standard 30-day offset.
- Shows configurable vanna/charm pre-expiration window (green shading).
- Shows configurable post-opex weakness window (red shading).
- Adjustable colors, start/end offsets, and on/off toggles for each element.
What this does
This overlay highlights option-driven calendar windows around monthly equity options expiration (opex) and VIX options expiration. It draws:
- Solid blue lines on the third Friday of each month (typical monthly opex).
- Dashed orange lines on the Wednesday ~30 days before next month’s opex (typical VIX expiration schedule).
- Green shading during a pre-expiration window when vanna/charm effects are often strongest.
- Red shading during the post-expiration "window of non-strength" often observed into the Tuesday after opex.
How it works
1. Monthly opex is detected when Friday falls between the 15th–21st of the month.
2. VIX expiration is calculated by finding next month’s opex date, then subtracting 30 calendar days and marking that Wednesday.
3. Vanna/charm window (green) : starts on the Monday of the week before opex and ends on Tuesday of opex week.
4. Post-opex weakness window (red) : starts Wednesday of opex week and ends Tuesday after opex.
How to use
- Add to any chart/timeframe.
- Adjust inputs to toggle VIX/opex lines, choose colors, and fine-tune the start/end offsets for shaded windows.
- This is an educational visualization of typical timing and not a trading signal.
Limitations
- Exchange holidays and contract-specific exceptions can shift expirations; this script uses standard calendar rules.
- No forward-looking data is used; all dates are derived from historical and current bar time.
- Past patterns do not guarantee future behavior.
Originality
Provides a single, adjustable visualization combining opex, VIX expiration, and configurable vanna/charm/weakness windows into one tool. Fully explained so non-coders can use it without reading the source code.
