ADX Forecast [Titans_Invest]ADX Forecast
This isn’t just another ADX indicator — it’s the most powerful and complete ADX tool ever created, and without question the best ADX indicator on TradingView, possibly even the best in the world.
ADX Forecast represents a revolutionary leap in trend strength analysis, blending the timeless principles of the classic ADX with cutting-edge predictive modeling. For the first time on TradingView, you can anticipate future ADX movements using scientifically validated linear regression — a true game-changer for traders looking to stay ahead of trend shifts.
1. Real-Time ADX Forecasting
By applying least squares linear regression, ADX Forecast projects the future trajectory of the ADX with exceptional accuracy. This forecasting power enables traders to anticipate changes in trend strength before they fully unfold — a vital edge in fast-moving markets.
2. Unmatched Customization & Precision
With 26 long entry conditions and 26 short entry conditions, this indicator accounts for every possible ADX scenario. Every parameter is fully customizable, making it adaptable to any trading strategy — from scalping to swing trading to long-term investing.
3. Transparency & Advanced Visualization
Visualize internal ADX dynamics in real time with interactive tags, smart flags, and fully adjustable threshold levels. Every signal is transparent, logic-based, and engineered to fit seamlessly into professional-grade trading systems.
4. Scientific Foundation, Elite Execution
Grounded in statistical precision and machine learning principles, ADX Forecast upgrades the classic ADX from a reactive lagging tool into a forward-looking trend prediction engine. This isn’t just an indicator — it’s a scientific evolution in trend analysis.
⯁ SCIENTIFIC BASIS LINEAR REGRESSION
Linear Regression is a fundamental method of statistics and machine learning, used to model the relationship between a dependent variable y and one or more independent variables 𝑥.
The general formula for a simple linear regression is given by:
y = β₀ + β₁x + ε
β₁ = Σ((xᵢ - x̄)(yᵢ - ȳ)) / Σ((xᵢ - x̄)²)
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
y = is the predicted variable (e.g. future value of RSI)
x = is the explanatory variable (e.g. time or bar index)
β0 = is the intercept (value of 𝑦 when 𝑥 = 0)
𝛽1 = is the slope of the line (rate of change)
ε = is the random error term
The goal is to estimate the coefficients 𝛽0 and 𝛽1 so as to minimize the sum of the squared errors — the so-called Random Error Method Least Squares.
⯁ LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION
To minimize the error between predicted and observed values, we use the following formulas:
β₁ = /
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
∑ = sum
x̄ = mean of x
ȳ = mean of y
x_i, y_i = individual values of the variables.
Where:
x_i and y_i are the means of the independent and dependent variables, respectively.
i ranges from 1 to n, the number of observations.
These equations guarantee the best linear unbiased estimator, according to the Gauss-Markov theorem, assuming homoscedasticity and linearity.
⯁ LINEAR REGRESSION IN MACHINE LEARNING
Linear regression is one of the cornerstones of supervised learning. Its simplicity and ability to generate accurate quantitative predictions make it essential in AI systems, predictive algorithms, time series analysis, and automated trading strategies.
By applying this model to the ADX, you are literally putting artificial intelligence at the heart of a classic indicator, bringing a new dimension to technical analysis.
⯁ VISUAL INTERPRETATION
Imagine an ADX time series like this:
Time →
ADX →
The regression line will smooth these values and extend them n periods into the future, creating a predicted trajectory based on the historical moment. This line becomes the predicted ADX, which can be crossed with the actual ADX to generate more intelligent signals.
⯁ SUMMARY OF SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS USED
Linear Regression Models the relationship between variables using a straight line.
Least Squares Minimizes the sum of squared errors between prediction and reality.
Time Series Forecasting Estimates future values based on historical data.
Supervised Learning Trains models to predict outputs from known inputs.
Statistical Smoothing Reduces noise and reveals underlying trends.
⯁ WHY THIS INDICATOR IS REVOLUTIONARY
Scientifically-based: Based on statistical theory and mathematical inference.
Unprecedented: First public ADX with least squares predictive modeling.
Intelligent: Built with machine learning logic.
Practical: Generates forward-thinking signals.
Customizable: Flexible for any trading strategy.
⯁ CONCLUSION
By combining ADX with linear regression, this indicator allows a trader to predict market momentum, not just follow it.
ADX Forecast is not just an indicator — it is a scientific breakthrough in technical analysis technology.
⯁ Example of simple linear regression, which has one independent variable:
⯁ In linear regression, observations ( red ) are considered to be the result of random deviations ( green ) from an underlying relationship ( blue ) between a dependent variable ( y ) and an independent variable ( x ).
⯁ Visualizing heteroscedasticity in a scatterplot against 100 random fitted values using Matlab:
⯁ The data sets in the Anscombe's quartet are designed to have approximately the same linear regression line (as well as nearly identical means, standard deviations, and correlations) but are graphically very different. This illustrates the pitfalls of relying solely on a fitted model to understand the relationship between variables.
⯁ The result of fitting a set of data points with a quadratic function:
_______________________________________________________________________
🥇 This is the world’s first ADX indicator with: Linear Regression for Forecasting 🥇_______________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________
🔮 Linear Regression: PineScript Technical Parameters 🔮
_________________________________________________
Forecast Types:
• Flat: Assumes prices will remain the same.
• Linreg: Makes a 'Linear Regression' forecast for n periods.
Technical Information:
ta.linreg (built-in function)
Linear regression curve. A line that best fits the specified prices over a user-defined time period. It is calculated using the least squares method. The result of this function is calculated using the formula: linreg = intercept + slope * (length - 1 - offset), where intercept and slope are the values calculated using the least squares method on the source series.
Syntax:
• Function: ta.linreg()
Parameters:
• source: Source price series.
• length: Number of bars (period).
• offset: Offset.
• return: Linear regression curve.
This function has been cleverly applied to the RSI, making it capable of projecting future values based on past statistical trends.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
⯁ WHAT IS THE ADX❓
The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a technical analysis indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder. It measures the strength of a trend in a market, regardless of whether the trend is up or down.
The ADX is an integral part of the Directional Movement System, which also includes the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and the Minus Directional Indicator (-DI). By combining these components, the ADX provides a comprehensive view of market trend strength.
⯁ HOW TO USE THE ADX❓
The ADX is calculated based on the moving average of the price range expansion over a specified period (usually 14 periods). It is plotted on a scale from 0 to 100 and has three main zones:
• Strong Trend: When the ADX is above 25, indicating a strong trend.
• Weak Trend: When the ADX is below 20, indicating a weak or non-existent trend.
• Neutral Zone: Between 20 and 25, where the trend strength is unclear.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
⯁ ENTRY CONDITIONS
The conditions below are fully flexible and allow for complete customization of the signal.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
🔹 CONDITIONS TO BUY 📈
______________________________________________________
• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
🔹 +DI > -DI
🔹 +DI < -DI
🔹 +DI > ADX
🔹 +DI < ADX
🔹 -DI > ADX
🔹 -DI < ADX
🔹 ADX > Threshold
🔹 ADX < Threshold
🔹 +DI > Threshold
🔹 +DI < Threshold
🔹 -DI > Threshold
🔹 -DI < Threshold
🔹 +DI (Crossover) -DI
🔹 +DI (Crossunder) -DI
🔹 +DI (Crossover) ADX
🔹 +DI (Crossunder) ADX
🔹 +DI (Crossover) Threshold
🔹 +DI (Crossunder) Threshold
🔹 -DI (Crossover) ADX
🔹 -DI (Crossunder) ADX
🔹 -DI (Crossover) Threshold
🔹 -DI (Crossunder) Threshold
🔮 +DI (Crossover) -DI Forecast
🔮 +DI (Crossunder) -DI Forecast
🔮 ADX (Crossover) +DI Forecast
🔮 ADX (Crossunder) +DI Forecast
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
🔸 CONDITIONS TO SELL 📉
______________________________________________________
• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
🔸 +DI > -DI
🔸 +DI < -DI
🔸 +DI > ADX
🔸 +DI < ADX
🔸 -DI > ADX
🔸 -DI < ADX
🔸 ADX > Threshold
🔸 ADX < Threshold
🔸 +DI > Threshold
🔸 +DI < Threshold
🔸 -DI > Threshold
🔸 -DI < Threshold
🔸 +DI (Crossover) -DI
🔸 +DI (Crossunder) -DI
🔸 +DI (Crossover) ADX
🔸 +DI (Crossunder) ADX
🔸 +DI (Crossover) Threshold
🔸 +DI (Crossunder) Threshold
🔸 -DI (Crossover) ADX
🔸 -DI (Crossunder) ADX
🔸 -DI (Crossover) Threshold
🔸 -DI (Crossunder) Threshold
🔮 +DI (Crossover) -DI Forecast
🔮 +DI (Crossunder) -DI Forecast
🔮 ADX (Crossover) +DI Forecast
🔮 ADX (Crossunder) +DI Forecast
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
🤖 AUTOMATION 🤖
• You can automate the BUY and SELL signals of this indicator.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
⯁ UNIQUE FEATURES
______________________________________________________
Linear Regression: (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL
Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
Linear Regression (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Table of Conditions: BUY/SELL
Conditions Label: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the graph above: BUY/SELL
Automate & Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
______________________________________________________
📜 SCRIPT : ADX Forecast
🎴 Art by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
👨💻 Dev by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
🎑 Titans Invest — The Wizards Without Gloves 🧤
✨ Enjoy!
______________________________________________________
o Mission 🗺
• Inspire Traders to manifest Magic in the Market.
o Vision 𐓏
• To elevate collective Energy 𐓷𐓏
Forecasting
True Seasonal Pattern [tradeviZion]True Seasonal Pattern: Uncover Hidden Market Cycles
Markets have rhythms and patterns that repeat with surprising regularity. The True Seasonal Pattern indicator reveals these hidden cycles across different timeframes, helping you anticipate potential market movements based on historical seasonal tendencies.
What This Indicator Does
The True Seasonal Pattern analyzes years of historical price data to identify recurring seasonal trends. It then plots these patterns on your chart, showing you both the historical pattern and future projection based on past seasonal behavior.
Automatic Timeframe Detection: Works with Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts
Historical Pattern Analysis: Analyzes up to 100 years of data (customizable)
Future Projection: Projects the seasonal pattern ahead on your chart
Smart Smoothing: Applies appropriate smoothing based on your timeframe
How to Use This Indicator
Add the indicator to a Daily, Weekly, or Monthly chart (not designed for intraday timeframes)
The indicator automatically detects your chart's timeframe
The blue line shows the historical seasonal pattern
Watch for potential turning points in the pattern that align with other technical signals
Seasonal patterns work best as a supporting factor in your analysis, not as standalone trading signals. They are particularly effective in markets with well-established seasonal influences.
Best Applications
Futures Markets: Commodities and futures often show strong seasonal tendencies due to production cycles, weather patterns, and economic factors
Stock Indices: Many stock markets demonstrate regular seasonal patterns (like the "Sell in May" phenomenon)
Individual Stocks: Companies with seasonal business cycles often show predictable price patterns
Practical Applications
Identify potential turning points based on historical seasonal patterns
Plan entries and exits around seasonal tendencies
Add seasonal context to your existing technical analysis
Understand why certain months or periods might show consistent behavior
Pro Tip: For best results, use this tool on instruments with at least 5+ years of historical data. Longer timeframes often reveal more reliable seasonal patterns.
Important Notes
This indicator works best on Daily, Weekly, and Monthly timeframes - not intraday charts
Seasonal patterns are tendencies, not guarantees
Always combine seasonal analysis with other technical tools
Past patterns may not repeat exactly in the future
// Sample of the seasonal calculation approach
float yearHigh = array.max(currentYearHighs)
float yearLow = array.min(currentYearLows)
// Calculate seasonality for each period
for i = 0 to array.size(currentYearCloses) - 1
float periodClose = array.get(currentYearCloses, i)
if not na(periodClose) and yearHigh != yearLow
float seasonality = (periodClose - yearLow) / (yearHigh - yearLow) * 100
I developed this indicator to help traders incorporate seasonal analysis into their trading approach without the complexity of traditional seasonal tools. Whether you're analyzing agricultural commodities, energy futures, or stock indices, understanding the seasonal context can provide valuable insights for your trading decisions.
Remember: Markets don't always follow seasonal patterns, but when they do, being aware of these tendencies can give you a meaningful edge in your analysis.
Market Warning Dashboard Enhanced📊 Market Warning Dashboard Enhanced
A powerful macro risk dashboard that tracks and visualizes early signs of market instability across multiple key indicators—presented in a clean, professional layout with a real-time thermometer-style danger gauge.
🔍 Included Macro Signals:
Yield Curve Inversion: 10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M spreads
Credit Spreads: High-yield (HYG) vs Investment Grade (LQD)
Volatility Structure: VIX/VXV ratio
Breadth Estimate: SPY vs 50-day MA (as a proxy)
🔥 Features:
Real-time Danger Score: 0 (Safe) to 100 (Extreme Risk)
Descriptive warnings for each signal
Color-coded thermometer gauge
Alert conditions for each macro risk
Background shifts on rising systemic risk
⚠️ This dashboard can save your portfolio by alerting you to macro trouble before it hits the headlines—ideal for swing traders, long-term investors, and anyone who doesn’t want to get blindsided by systemic risk.
Timeframe StrategyThis is a multi-timeframe trading strategy inspired by Ross Cameron's style, optimized for scalping and trend-following across various timeframes (1m, 5m, 15m, 1h, and 1D). The strategy integrates a comprehensive set of technical indicators, dynamic risk management, and visual tools.
Core Features
Dynamic Take Profit, Stop Loss & Trailing Stop
> Separate settings per timeframe for:
-TP% (Take Profit)
-SL% (Stop Loss)
-Trailing Stop %
-Cooldown bars
> Configurable via UI inputs.
>Smart Entry Conditions
Bullish entry: EMA9 crossover EMA20 and EMA50 > EMA200
Bearish entry: EMA9 crossunder EMA20 and EMA50 < EMA200
>Additional confirmation filters:
-Volume Filter (enabled/disabled via UI)
-Time Filter (e.g., only between 15:00–20:00 UTC)
-Spike Filter: rejects high-volatility candles
-RSI Filter: above/below 50 for trend confirmation
-ADX Filter (only applied on 1m, e.g., ADX > 15)
-Micro-Volatility Filter: minimum range percentage (1m only)
-Trend Filter (1m only): price must be above/below EMA200
>Trailing Stop Logic
-Configurable for each timeframe.
- Optional via toggle (use_trailing).
>Trade Cooldown Logic
-Prevents consecutive trades within X bars, configurable per timeframe.
>Technical Indicators Used
-EMA 9 / 20 / 50 / 200
-VWAP
-RSI (14)
-ATR (14) for volatility-based spike filtering
-Custom-calculated ADX (14) (manually implemented)
>Visual Elements
🔼/🔽 Entry signals (long/short) plotted on the chart.
📉 Table in bottom-left:
Displays current values of EMA/VWAP/volume/ATR/ADX.
> Optional "Tab info" panel in top-right (toggleable):
-Timeframe & strategy settings
-Live status of filters (volume, time, cooldown, spike, RSI, ADX, range, trend)
-Uses emoji (✅ / ❌) for quick diagnostics.
>User Customization
-Inputs per timeframe for all key parameters.
-Toggle switches for:
-Trailing stop
-Volume filter
-Info table visibility
This strategy is designed for active traders seeking a balance between momentum entry, risk control, and adaptability across timeframes. It's ideal for backtesting quick reversals or breakout setups in fast markets, especially at lower timeframes like 1m or 5m.
ConeCastConeCast is a forward-looking projection indicator that visualizes a future price range (or "cone") based on recent trend momentum and adaptive volatility. Unlike lagging bands or reactive channels, this tool plots a predictive zone 3–50 bars ahead, allowing traders to anticipate potential price behavior rather than merely react to it.
How It Works
The core of ConeCast is a dynamic trend-slope engine derived from a Linear Regression line fitted over a user-defined lookback window. The slope of this trend is projected forward, and the cone’s width adapts based on real-time market volatility. In calm markets, the cone is narrow and focused. In volatile regimes, it expands proportionally, using an ATR-based % of price to scale.
Key Features
📈 Predictive Cone Zone: Visualizes a forward range using trend slope × volatility width.
🔄 Auto-Adaptive Volatility Scaling: Expands or contracts based on market quiet/chaotic states.
📊 Regime Detection: Identifies Bull, Bear, or Neutral states using a tunable slope threshold.
🧭 Multi-Timeframe Compatible: Slope and volatility can be calculated from higher timeframes.
🔔 Smart Alerts: Detects price entering the cone, and signals trend regime changes in real time.
🖼️ Clean Visual Output: Optionally includes outer cones, trend-trail marker, and dashboard label.
How to Use It
Use on 15m–4H charts for best forward visibility.
Look for price entering the cone as a potential trend continuation setup.
Monitor regime changes and volatility expansion to filter choppy market zones.
Tune the slope sensitivity and ATR multiplier to match your symbol's behavior.
Use outer cones to anticipate aggressive swings and wick traps.
What Makes It Unique
ConeCast doesn’t follow price — it predicts a possible future price envelope using trend + volatility math, without relying on lagging indicators or repainting logic. It's a hybrid of regression-based forecasting and dynamic risk zoning, designed for swing traders, scalpers, and algo developers alike.
Limitations
ConeCast projects based on current trend and volatility — it does not "know" future price. Like all projection tools, accuracy depends on trend persistence and market conditions. Use this in combination with confirmation signals and risk management.
30-70 RSI Strategy with Colored BarThis script colors price bars based on Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels, giving traders a quick and visual way to assess overbought or oversold market conditions directly on the chart.
📈 Key Features:
✅ RSI-Based Bar Coloring:
Green bars when RSI is above the upper threshold (default 70) – suggests bullish momentum.
Red bars when RSI is below the lower threshold (default 30) – indicates bearish pressure.
Bars remain uncolored when RSI is between thresholds – a neutral zone.
🔧 Customizable RSI Settings:
Adjustable RSI length (default: 14 periods)
Adjustable overbought/oversold levels (default: 70/30)
🧠 Helps traders:
Quickly spot potential reversals or trend continuations
Visually align price action with momentum
🛠️ Usage:
Ideal for trend-following, reversal, and momentum strategies.
Works across any timeframe (1m, 5m, 1h, daily, etc.).
IU Inside out candlestick patternIU Inside Out Candlestick Pattern
This indicator identifies the Inside Out Candlestick Pattern — a unique 3-bar price action setup that captures strong market momentum and potential reversals with greater reliability than traditional patterns.
Pattern Logic:
The Inside Out pattern builds upon a classic engulfing setup by adding a breakout confirmation, making it a refined and filtered approach to candlestick analysis.
Bullish Inside Out Logic:
- Bar must be a bullish engulfing candle (engulfs previous bearish candle).
- Current bar must be bullish and must close above the high of the engulfing candle (a bullish breakout).
- When this setup is confirmed, a shaded green box is drawn around the range of the engulfing candle and its preceding bar.
Bearish Inside Out Logic:
- Bar must be a bearish engulfing candle (engulfs previous bullish candle).
- Current bar must be bearish and must close below the low of the engulfing candle (a bearish breakdown).
- When confirmed, a red box highlights the zone formed by the engulfing candle and its prior bar.
Why this is unique:
Unlike conventional candlestick indicators that trigger signals immediately after an engulfing pattern, this script adds a breakout condition to validate follow-through strength. This reduces false positives and gives traders a clearer edge. The pattern is also rare, which means it captures strong, decisive moves when it does appear.
How users can benefit:
- High-quality entries: Only shows patterns with proven follow-through, improving trade timing.
- Visual clarity: Boxes and labels highlight significant price zones for easy interpretation.
- Flexible use: Applicable across timeframes and instruments — ideal for both intraday and swing traders.
- Alerts included: Real-time alerts help traders stay updated without staring at charts all day.
This script is a powerful tool for price action traders looking to enhance pattern reliability and signal strength through structure-based breakout confirmation.
Day Range DividerThe indicator divides the chart into Israeli trading days, starting at one o’clock after midnight and ending a minute before the next midnight, marking each day’s open with a thin vertical line whose color and width you can choose. A label with the day’s name (in Hebrew) can appear on the very first bar of the session, while another label is placed midway through the previous day, beneath the candles at a fixed distance from the bottom so it doesn’t obscure price. You can adjust the label’s color, size, and letter spacing, customize the line style, and decide whether to show the early-session label. The indicator ignores Saturday and Sunday, works on any intraday timeframe, never repaints after plotting, and lets you quickly spot daily sequences and time-of-day patterns for market analysis.
Global M2 Money Supply Top20 + Offset & WaveThe M2 Top20 is a global aggregation of the M2 money supply from the 20 largest economies in the world , providing a comprehensive view of the total liquidity in the global financial system. It is expressed in trillions of USD.
This script calculates and visualizes the M2 Money Supply of the Top 20 Global Economies, adjusted to various timeframes (4H, 1D, 1W, 1M) with customizable offset adjustments (in days) from -1000 days to +1000 days. This indicator includes data from the Americas, Europe, Africa, and the Asia Middle East , offering a diverse and balanced representation of major economic regions. The M2 of each country has been converted to USD.
Additionally, the user can set a minimum and maximum offset to create a wave around the main offset and expand the comparison.
Combining these options, this indicator enables users to visualize a range of the global money supply, making it useful for market analysis, economic forecasting, and understanding macroeconomic trends. This indicator is particularly valuable for traders and analysts interested in understanding the dynamics of global monetary systems and their potential impact on financial markets.
Key Features:
Global M2 Money Supply calculation from the Top 20 Economies.
Adjustable Offset: Adjust the offset to align the indicator with the best bar. Adjustment in days, usable on different timeframes (1D, 1W, 4H, 1M).
Wave Projection: Displays a "probability cloud"—a smoothed area that shows the probable path of Bitcoin, derived from shifts in global liquidity.
Min/Max Offset Adjustments: Customizable offsets allow you to determine the range of future windows, helping to shape the wave and better identify liquidity-driven turning points.
Use Cases:
Economic Forecasting: Identify trends in global money supply and their potential market impact (e.g., historically leads Bitcoin price by +/- 78 days to +/-108 days).
Market Analysis: Track the growth or contraction of money supply across key economies.
Macro-Economic Analysis: Understand the relationship between monetary policies and market performance.
How to use:
Add the indicator to your chart.
Set the timeframe to 1D to customize the offset.
Set the Offset (in days).
Set the Offset Range Minimum and Maximum.
Show/Hide the Range Wave
.
Use offset = 0 to have the indicator align directly with the current data, without any shift, providing a baseline for comparison with the most recent market conditions.
Countries included in the M2 Top20:
China (CN), Japan (JP), South Korea (KR), Hong Kong (HK), Taiwan (TW), India (IN), Saudi Arabia (SA), Thailand (TH), Vietnam (VN), United Arab Emirates (AE), Malawi (MW) – Africa, United States (US), Canada (CA), Brazil (BR), Mexico (MX), Eurozone (EU), United Kingdom (GB), Russia (RU), Poland (PL), Switzerland (CH).
These countries were selected from the ranking of the World Economy Indicator of Trading View .
RSI Full Forecast [Titans_Invest]RSI Full Forecast
Get ready to experience the ultimate evolution of RSI-based indicators – the RSI Full Forecast, a boosted and even smarter version of the already powerful: RSI Forecast
Now featuring over 40 additional entry conditions (forecasts), this indicator redefines the way you view the market.
AI-Powered RSI Forecasting:
Using advanced linear regression with the least squares method – a solid foundation for machine learning - the RSI Full Forecast enables you to predict future RSI behavior with impressive accuracy.
But that’s not all: this new version also lets you monitor future crossovers between the RSI and the MA RSI, delivering early and strategic signals that go far beyond traditional analysis.
You’ll be able to monitor future crossovers up to 20 bars ahead, giving you an even broader and more precise view of market movements.
See the Future, Now:
• Track upcoming RSI & RSI MA crossovers in advance.
• Identify potential reversal zones before price reacts.
• Uncover statistical behavior patterns that would normally go unnoticed.
40+ Intelligent Conditions:
The new layer of conditions is designed to detect multiple high-probability scenarios based on historical patterns and predictive modeling. Each additional forecast is a window into the price's future, powered by robust mathematics and advanced algorithmic logic.
Full Customization:
All parameters can be tailored to fit your strategy – from smoothing periods to prediction sensitivity. You have complete control to turn raw data into smart decisions.
Innovative, Accurate, Unique:
This isn’t just an upgrade. It’s a quantum leap in technical analysis.
RSI Full Forecast is the first of its kind: an indicator that blends statistical analysis, machine learning, and visual design to create a true real-time predictive system.
⯁ SCIENTIFIC BASIS LINEAR REGRESSION
Linear Regression is a fundamental method of statistics and machine learning, used to model the relationship between a dependent variable y and one or more independent variables 𝑥.
The general formula for a simple linear regression is given by:
y = β₀ + β₁x + ε
β₁ = Σ((xᵢ - x̄)(yᵢ - ȳ)) / Σ((xᵢ - x̄)²)
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
y = is the predicted variable (e.g. future value of RSI)
x = is the explanatory variable (e.g. time or bar index)
β0 = is the intercept (value of 𝑦 when 𝑥 = 0)
𝛽1 = is the slope of the line (rate of change)
ε = is the random error term
The goal is to estimate the coefficients 𝛽0 and 𝛽1 so as to minimize the sum of the squared errors — the so-called Random Error Method Least Squares.
⯁ LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION
To minimize the error between predicted and observed values, we use the following formulas:
β₁ = /
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
∑ = sum
x̄ = mean of x
ȳ = mean of y
x_i, y_i = individual values of the variables.
Where:
x_i and y_i are the means of the independent and dependent variables, respectively.
i ranges from 1 to n, the number of observations.
These equations guarantee the best linear unbiased estimator, according to the Gauss-Markov theorem, assuming homoscedasticity and linearity.
⯁ LINEAR REGRESSION IN MACHINE LEARNING
Linear regression is one of the cornerstones of supervised learning. Its simplicity and ability to generate accurate quantitative predictions make it essential in AI systems, predictive algorithms, time series analysis, and automated trading strategies.
By applying this model to the RSI, you are literally putting artificial intelligence at the heart of a classic indicator, bringing a new dimension to technical analysis.
⯁ VISUAL INTERPRETATION
Imagine an RSI time series like this:
Time →
RSI →
The regression line will smooth these values and extend them n periods into the future, creating a predicted trajectory based on the historical moment. This line becomes the predicted RSI, which can be crossed with the actual RSI to generate more intelligent signals.
⯁ SUMMARY OF SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS USED
Linear Regression Models the relationship between variables using a straight line.
Least Squares Minimizes the sum of squared errors between prediction and reality.
Time Series Forecasting Estimates future values based on historical data.
Supervised Learning Trains models to predict outputs from known inputs.
Statistical Smoothing Reduces noise and reveals underlying trends.
⯁ WHY THIS INDICATOR IS REVOLUTIONARY
Scientifically-based: Based on statistical theory and mathematical inference.
Unprecedented: First public RSI with least squares predictive modeling.
Intelligent: Built with machine learning logic.
Practical: Generates forward-thinking signals.
Customizable: Flexible for any trading strategy.
⯁ CONCLUSION
By combining RSI with linear regression, this indicator allows a trader to predict market momentum, not just follow it.
RSI Full Forecast is not just an indicator — it is a scientific breakthrough in technical analysis technology.
⯁ Example of simple linear regression, which has one independent variable:
⯁ In linear regression, observations ( red ) are considered to be the result of random deviations ( green ) from an underlying relationship ( blue ) between a dependent variable ( y ) and an independent variable ( x ).
⯁ Visualizing heteroscedasticity in a scatterplot against 100 random fitted values using Matlab:
⯁ The data sets in the Anscombe's quartet are designed to have approximately the same linear regression line (as well as nearly identical means, standard deviations, and correlations) but are graphically very different. This illustrates the pitfalls of relying solely on a fitted model to understand the relationship between variables.
⯁ The result of fitting a set of data points with a quadratic function:
_________________________________________________
🔮 Linear Regression: PineScript Technical Parameters 🔮
_________________________________________________
Forecast Types:
• Flat: Assumes prices will remain the same.
• Linreg: Makes a 'Linear Regression' forecast for n periods.
Technical Information:
ta.linreg (built-in function)
Linear regression curve. A line that best fits the specified prices over a user-defined time period. It is calculated using the least squares method. The result of this function is calculated using the formula: linreg = intercept + slope * (length - 1 - offset), where intercept and slope are the values calculated using the least squares method on the source series.
Syntax:
• Function: ta.linreg()
Parameters:
• source: Source price series.
• length: Number of bars (period).
• offset: Offset.
• return: Linear regression curve.
This function has been cleverly applied to the RSI, making it capable of projecting future values based on past statistical trends.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
⯁ WHAT IS THE RSI❓
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical analysis indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder. It measures the magnitude of recent price movements to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in a market. The RSI is an oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100 and is commonly used to identify potential reversal points, as well as the strength of a trend.
⯁ HOW TO USE THE RSI❓
The RSI is calculated based on average gains and losses over a specified period (usually 14 periods). It is plotted on a scale from 0 to 100 and includes three main zones:
• Overbought: When the RSI is above 70, indicating that the asset may be overbought.
• Oversold: When the RSI is below 30, indicating that the asset may be oversold.
• Neutral Zone: Between 30 and 70, where there is no clear signal of overbought or oversold conditions.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
⯁ ENTRY CONDITIONS
The conditions below are fully flexible and allow for complete customization of the signal.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
🔹 CONDITIONS TO BUY 📈
______________________________________________________
• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
📈 RSI Conditions:
🔹 RSI > Upper
🔹 RSI < Upper
🔹 RSI > Lower
🔹 RSI < Lower
🔹 RSI > Middle
🔹 RSI < Middle
🔹 RSI > MA
🔹 RSI < MA
📈 MA Conditions:
🔹 MA > Upper
🔹 MA < Upper
🔹 MA > Lower
🔹 MA < Lower
📈 Crossovers:
🔹 RSI (Crossover) Upper
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Upper
🔹 RSI (Crossover) Lower
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Lower
🔹 RSI (Crossover) Middle
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Middle
🔹 RSI (Crossover) MA
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) MA
🔹 MA (Crossover) Upper
🔹 MA (Crossunder) Upper
🔹 MA (Crossover) Lower
🔹 MA (Crossunder) Lower
📈 RSI Divergences:
🔹 RSI Divergence Bull
🔹 RSI Divergence Bear
📈 RSI Forecast:
🔹 RSI (Crossover) MA Forecast
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) MA Forecast
🔹 RSI Forecast 1 > MA Forecast 1
🔹 RSI Forecast 1 < MA Forecast 1
🔹 RSI Forecast 2 > MA Forecast 2
🔹 RSI Forecast 2 < MA Forecast 2
🔹 RSI Forecast 3 > MA Forecast 3
🔹 RSI Forecast 3 < MA Forecast 3
🔹 RSI Forecast 4 > MA Forecast 4
🔹 RSI Forecast 4 < MA Forecast 4
🔹 RSI Forecast 5 > MA Forecast 5
🔹 RSI Forecast 5 < MA Forecast 5
🔹 RSI Forecast 6 > MA Forecast 6
🔹 RSI Forecast 6 < MA Forecast 6
🔹 RSI Forecast 7 > MA Forecast 7
🔹 RSI Forecast 7 < MA Forecast 7
🔹 RSI Forecast 8 > MA Forecast 8
🔹 RSI Forecast 8 < MA Forecast 8
🔹 RSI Forecast 9 > MA Forecast 9
🔹 RSI Forecast 9 < MA Forecast 9
🔹 RSI Forecast 10 > MA Forecast 10
🔹 RSI Forecast 10 < MA Forecast 10
🔹 RSI Forecast 11 > MA Forecast 11
🔹 RSI Forecast 11 < MA Forecast 11
🔹 RSI Forecast 12 > MA Forecast 12
🔹 RSI Forecast 12 < MA Forecast 12
🔹 RSI Forecast 13 > MA Forecast 13
🔹 RSI Forecast 13 < MA Forecast 13
🔹 RSI Forecast 14 > MA Forecast 14
🔹 RSI Forecast 14 < MA Forecast 14
🔹 RSI Forecast 15 > MA Forecast 15
🔹 RSI Forecast 15 < MA Forecast 15
🔹 RSI Forecast 16 > MA Forecast 16
🔹 RSI Forecast 16 < MA Forecast 16
🔹 RSI Forecast 17 > MA Forecast 17
🔹 RSI Forecast 17 < MA Forecast 17
🔹 RSI Forecast 18 > MA Forecast 18
🔹 RSI Forecast 18 < MA Forecast 18
🔹 RSI Forecast 19 > MA Forecast 19
🔹 RSI Forecast 19 < MA Forecast 19
🔹 RSI Forecast 20 > MA Forecast 20
🔹 RSI Forecast 20 < MA Forecast 20
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
🔸 CONDITIONS TO SELL 📉
______________________________________________________
• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
📉 RSI Conditions:
🔸 RSI > Upper
🔸 RSI < Upper
🔸 RSI > Lower
🔸 RSI < Lower
🔸 RSI > Middle
🔸 RSI < Middle
🔸 RSI > MA
🔸 RSI < MA
📉 MA Conditions:
🔸 MA > Upper
🔸 MA < Upper
🔸 MA > Lower
🔸 MA < Lower
📉 Crossovers:
🔸 RSI (Crossover) Upper
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Upper
🔸 RSI (Crossover) Lower
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Lower
🔸 RSI (Crossover) Middle
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Middle
🔸 RSI (Crossover) MA
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) MA
🔸 MA (Crossover) Upper
🔸 MA (Crossunder) Upper
🔸 MA (Crossover) Lower
🔸 MA (Crossunder) Lower
📉 RSI Divergences:
🔸 RSI Divergence Bull
🔸 RSI Divergence Bear
📉 RSI Forecast:
🔸 RSI (Crossover) MA Forecast
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) MA Forecast
🔸 RSI Forecast 1 > MA Forecast 1
🔸 RSI Forecast 1 < MA Forecast 1
🔸 RSI Forecast 2 > MA Forecast 2
🔸 RSI Forecast 2 < MA Forecast 2
🔸 RSI Forecast 3 > MA Forecast 3
🔸 RSI Forecast 3 < MA Forecast 3
🔸 RSI Forecast 4 > MA Forecast 4
🔸 RSI Forecast 4 < MA Forecast 4
🔸 RSI Forecast 5 > MA Forecast 5
🔸 RSI Forecast 5 < MA Forecast 5
🔸 RSI Forecast 6 > MA Forecast 6
🔸 RSI Forecast 6 < MA Forecast 6
🔸 RSI Forecast 7 > MA Forecast 7
🔸 RSI Forecast 7 < MA Forecast 7
🔸 RSI Forecast 8 > MA Forecast 8
🔸 RSI Forecast 8 < MA Forecast 8
🔸 RSI Forecast 9 > MA Forecast 9
🔸 RSI Forecast 9 < MA Forecast 9
🔸 RSI Forecast 10 > MA Forecast 10
🔸 RSI Forecast 10 < MA Forecast 10
🔸 RSI Forecast 11 > MA Forecast 11
🔸 RSI Forecast 11 < MA Forecast 11
🔸 RSI Forecast 12 > MA Forecast 12
🔸 RSI Forecast 12 < MA Forecast 12
🔸 RSI Forecast 13 > MA Forecast 13
🔸 RSI Forecast 13 < MA Forecast 13
🔸 RSI Forecast 14 > MA Forecast 14
🔸 RSI Forecast 14 < MA Forecast 14
🔸 RSI Forecast 15 > MA Forecast 15
🔸 RSI Forecast 15 < MA Forecast 15
🔸 RSI Forecast 16 > MA Forecast 16
🔸 RSI Forecast 16 < MA Forecast 16
🔸 RSI Forecast 17 > MA Forecast 17
🔸 RSI Forecast 17 < MA Forecast 17
🔸 RSI Forecast 18 > MA Forecast 18
🔸 RSI Forecast 18 < MA Forecast 18
🔸 RSI Forecast 19 > MA Forecast 19
🔸 RSI Forecast 19 < MA Forecast 19
🔸 RSI Forecast 20 > MA Forecast 20
🔸 RSI Forecast 20 < MA Forecast 20
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
🤖 AUTOMATION 🤖
• You can automate the BUY and SELL signals of this indicator.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
⯁ UNIQUE FEATURES
______________________________________________________
Linear Regression: (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL
Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
Linear Regression (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL
Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
______________________________________________________
📜 SCRIPT : RSI Full Forecast
🎴 Art by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
👨💻 Dev by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
🎑 Titans Invest — The Wizards Without Gloves 🧤
✨ Enjoy!
______________________________________________________
o Mission 🗺
• Inspire Traders to manifest Magic in the Market.
o Vision 𐓏
• To elevate collective Energy 𐓷𐓏
Bitcoin as % Global M2 signalThis script provides signal system:
Buy signal: each time the YoY of the Global M2 rises more than 2.5% while the distance between the bitcoin price as a percentage of the Global M2 is below its yearly SMA.
Sell signal: the distance between the bitcoin price as a percentage of the Global M2 and its yearly SMA is > 0.7
This is a very simple system, but it seems to work pretty well to ride the bitcoin price cycle wave.
The parameters are hard coded but they can be easily changed to test different levels for both the buy and sell signals.
Global M2 YoY % Increase signalThe script produces a signal each time the global M2 increases more than 2.5%. This usually coincides with bitcoin prices pumps, except when it is late in the business cycle or the bitcoin price / halving cycle.
It leverages dylanleclair Global M2 YoY % change, with several modifications:
adding a 10 week lead at the YoY Change plot for better visibility, so that the bitcoin pump moreless coincides with the YoY change.
signal increases > 2.5 in Global M2 at the point at which they occur with a green triangle up.
BTST By ANTThe BTST Indicator is a powerful tool specifically designed for traders in the Indian stock market. This unique indicator identifies and highlights key price movements at a pivotal time—3:15 PM. This time is crucial for making BTST (Buy Today, Sell Tomorrow) decisions, a popular trading strategy in India.
Key Features:
Gap Identification : The indicator detects whether the current price action represents a gap-up or gap-down situation compared to the Heikinashi candle close price. This information is vital for short-term traders looking to capitalize on price momentum.
Visual Alerts : When a gap-up trend is detected, a green label "Gap Up" is displayed above the relevant bar. Similarly, a red label "Gap Down" appears below the bar for gap-down movements. These visual indicators help traders make quick and informed decisions.
User-Friendly Insights: The BTST Indicator provides vital information about last closed prices and the dynamics between normal candles and Heikinashi candles. With detailed logs, users can see the exact conditions leading to buy or sell signals, helping optimize trading strategies.
Why Use the BTST Indicator?
Timeliness: The focus on the 3:15 PM mark aligns perfectly with trading patterns and market behavior specific to the Indian stock market, making it an invaluable addition to your trading arsenal.
Enhanced Decision-Making: By receiving immediate visual cues on significant price movements, traders can execute their BTST strategies with greater confidence and speed.
Designed for Indian Markets: This indicator caters specifically to the nuances of Indian stock trading, ensuring relevance and effectiveness for local traders.
Start utilizing the BTST Indicator today to enhance your trading strategies and position yourself for successful trades in the Indian stock market!
Global M2 [BizFing]MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN ECONOMICS:USM2
This is an indicator designed to show the correlation between the global M2 money supply and Bitcoin.
This indicator basically provides a Global M2 index by summing the M2 money supply data from the United States, South Korea, China, Japan, the EU, and the United Kingdom.
Furthermore, it is configured to allow you to add or remove the M2 data of desired countries within the settings.
I hope this proves to be a small aid in predicting the future price of Bitcoin.
If you have any questions or require any improvements while using it, please feel free to contact me.
Thank you.
Sharpe Ratio Forced Selling StrategyThis study introduces the “Sharpe Ratio Forced Selling Strategy”, a quantitative trading model that dynamically manages positions based on the rolling Sharpe Ratio of an asset’s excess returns relative to the risk-free rate. The Sharpe Ratio, first introduced by Sharpe (1966), remains a cornerstone in risk-adjusted performance measurement, capturing the trade-off between return and volatility. In this strategy, entries are triggered when the Sharpe Ratio falls below a specified low threshold (indicating excessive pessimism), and exits occur either when the Sharpe Ratio surpasses a high threshold (indicating optimism or mean reversion) or when a maximum holding period is reached.
The underlying economic intuition stems from institutional behavior. Institutional investors, such as pension funds and mutual funds, are often subject to risk management mandates and performance benchmarking, requiring them to reduce exposure to assets that exhibit deteriorating risk-adjusted returns over rolling periods (Greenwood and Scharfstein, 2013). When risk-adjusted performance improves, institutions may rebalance or liquidate positions to meet regulatory requirements or internal mandates, a behavior that can be proxied effectively through a rising Sharpe Ratio.
By systematically monitoring the Sharpe Ratio, the strategy anticipates when “forced selling” pressure is likely to abate, allowing for opportunistic entries into assets priced below fundamental value. Exits are equally mechanized, either triggered by Sharpe Ratio improvements or by a strict time-based constraint, acknowledging that institutional rebalancing and window-dressing activities are often time-bound (Coval and Stafford, 2007).
The Sharpe Ratio is particularly suitable for this framework due to its ability to standardize excess returns per unit of risk, ensuring comparability across timeframes and asset classes (Sharpe, 1994). Furthermore, adjusting returns by a dynamically updating short-term risk-free rate (e.g., US 3-Month T-Bills from FRED) ensures that macroeconomic conditions, such as shifting interest rates, are accurately incorporated into the risk assessment.
While the Sharpe Ratio is an efficient and widely recognized measure, the strategy could be enhanced by incorporating alternative or complementary risk metrics:
• Sortino Ratio: Unlike the Sharpe Ratio, the Sortino Ratio penalizes only downside volatility (Sortino and van der Meer, 1991). This would refine entries and exits to distinguish between “good” and “bad” volatility.
• Maximum Drawdown Constraints: Integrating a moving window maximum drawdown filter could prevent entries during persistent downtrends not captured by volatility alone.
• Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): A measure of expected shortfall beyond the Value at Risk, CVaR could further constrain entry conditions by accounting for tail risk in extreme environments (Rockafellar and Uryasev, 2000).
• Dynamic Thresholds: Instead of static Sharpe thresholds, one could implement dynamic bands based on the historical distribution of the Sharpe Ratio, adjusting for volatility clustering effects (Cont, 2001).
Each of these risk parameters could be incorporated into the current script as additional input controls, further tailoring the model to different market regimes or investor risk appetites.
References
• Cont, R. (2001) ‘Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues’, Quantitative Finance, 1(2), pp. 223-236.
• Coval, J.D. and Stafford, E. (2007) ‘Asset Fire Sales (and Purchases) in Equity Markets’, Journal of Financial Economics, 86(2), pp. 479-512.
• Greenwood, R. and Scharfstein, D. (2013) ‘The Growth of Finance’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27(2), pp. 3-28.
• Rockafellar, R.T. and Uryasev, S. (2000) ‘Optimization of Conditional Value-at-Risk’, Journal of Risk, 2(3), pp. 21-41.
• Sharpe, W.F. (1966) ‘Mutual Fund Performance’, Journal of Business, 39(1), pp. 119-138.
• Sharpe, W.F. (1994) ‘The Sharpe Ratio’, Journal of Portfolio Management, 21(1), pp. 49-58.
• Sortino, F.A. and van der Meer, R. (1991) ‘Downside Risk’, Journal of Portfolio Management, 17(4), pp. 27-31.
Sharpe & Sortino Ratio PROSharpe & Sortino Ratio PRO offers an advanced and more precise way to calculate and visualize the Sharpe and Sortino Ratios for financial assets on TradingView. Its main goal is to provide a scientifically accurate method for assessing the risk-adjusted performance of assets, both in the short and long term. Unlike TradingView’s built-in metrics, this script correctly handles periodic returns, uses optional logarithmic returns, properly annualizes both returns and volatility, and adjusts for the risk-free rate — all critical factors for truly meaningful Sharpe and Sortino calculations.
Users can customize the rolling analysis window (e.g., 252 periods for one year on daily data) and the long-term smoothing period (e.g., 1260 periods for five years). There’s also an option to select between linear and logarithmic returns and to manually input a risk-free rate if real-time data from FRED (the 3-Month T-Bill Rate via FRED:DGS3MO) is unavailable. Based on the chart’s timeframe (daily, weekly, or monthly), the script automatically adjusts the risk-free rate to a per-period basis.
The Sharpe Ratio is calculated by first determining the asset’s excess returns (returns after subtracting the risk-free return per period), then computing the average and standard deviation of those excess returns over the specified window, and finally annualizing these figures separately — in line with best scientific practices (Sharpe, 1994). The Sortino Ratio follows a similar approach but only considers negative returns, focusing specifically on downside risk (Sortino & Van der Meer, 1991).
To enhance readability, the script visualizes the ratios using a color gradient: strong negative values are shown in red, neutral values in yellow, and strong positive values in green. Additionally, the long-term averages for both Sharpe and Sortino are plotted with steady colors (teal and orange, respectively), making it easier to spot enduring performance trends.
Why calculating Sharpe and Sortino Ratios manually on TradingView is necessary?
While TradingView provides basic Sharpe and Sortino Ratios, they come with significant methodological flaws that can lead to misleading conclusions about an asset’s true risk-adjusted performance.
First, TradingView often computes volatility based on the standard deviation of price levels rather than returns (TradingView, 2023). This method is problematic because it causes the volatility measure to be directly dependent on the asset’s absolute price. For instance, a stock priced at $1,000 will naturally show larger absolute daily price moves than a $10 stock, even if their percentage changes are similar. This artificially inflates the measured standard deviation and, as a result, depresses the calculated Sharpe Ratio.
Second, TradingView frequently neglects to adjust for the risk-free rate. By treating all returns as risky returns, the computed Sharpe Ratio may significantly underestimate risk-adjusted performance, especially when interest rates are high (Sharpe, 1994).
Third, and perhaps most critically, TradingView doesn’t properly annualize the mean excess return and the standard deviation separately. In correct financial math, the mean excess return should be multiplied by the number of periods per year, while the standard deviation should be multiplied by the square root of the number of periods per year (Cont, 2001; Fabozzi et al., 2007). Incorrect annualization skews the Sharpe and Sortino Ratios and can lead to under- or overestimating investment risk.
These flaws lead to three major issues:
• Overstated volatility for high-priced assets.
• Incorrect scaling between returns and risk.
• Sharpe Ratios that are systematically biased downward, especially in high-price or high-interest environments.
How to properly calculate Sharpe and Sortino Ratios in Pine Script?
To get accurate results, the Sharpe and Sortino Ratios must be calculated using the correct methodology:
1. Use returns, not price levels, to calculate volatility. Ideally, use logarithmic returns for better mathematical properties like time additivity (Cont, 2001).
2. Adjust returns by subtracting the risk-free rate on a per-period basis to obtain true excess returns.
3. Annualize separately:
• Multiply the mean excess return by the number of periods per year (e.g., 252 for daily data).
• Multiply the standard deviation by the square root of the number of periods per year.
4. Finally, divide the annualized mean excess return by the annualized standard deviation to calculate the Sharpe Ratio.
The Sortino Ratio follows the same structure but uses downside deviations instead of standard deviations.
By following this scientifically sound method, you ensure that your Sharpe and Sortino Ratios truly reflect the asset’s real-world risk and return characteristics.
References
• Cont, R. (2001). Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues. Quantitative Finance, 1(2), pp. 223–236.
• Fabozzi, F.J., Gupta, F. and Markowitz, H.M. (2007). The Legacy of Modern Portfolio Theory. Journal of Investing, 16(3), pp. 7–22.
• Sharpe, W.F. (1994). The Sharpe Ratio. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21(1), pp. 49–58.
• Sortino, F.A. and Van der Meer, R. (1991). Downside Risk: Capturing What’s at Stake in Investment Situations. Journal of Portfolio Management, 17(4), pp. 27–31.
• TradingView (2023). Help Center - Understanding Sharpe and Sortino Ratios. Available at: www.tradingview.com (Accessed: 25 April 2025).
ka66: ADR EstimationThis is based on Daryl Guppy's Average Daily Range indicator, the link is difficult to find, but it is an estimation/projection indicator for a daily range.
The thesis is (if I understand correctly):
The range (high - low) of a particular day can be determined, with 85% probability, by taking the ranges of the last 5 days, and getting their average, then multiplying this average value by 0.75. This final value is the estimated range for the next day.
The indicator does not say anything about potential direction, so it may be used as a Take Profit or Stop Loss estimator for the trading strategy in use. Either on the daily timeframe, or an intraday timeframe.
And if we enter the market intraday for a day trade, when the day's range has already exceeded or is close to exceeding the estimated/projected value, perhaps the move is already quite exhausted, and the trade needs to be reconsidered.
A further implication is: if 0.75 multiple occurs with 85% probability, then a lower multiple is even more probable, if one was looking for a more conservative estimate.
The indicator shows three things for a visual inspection of the validity of this concept (and allows basic customisation of parameters):
The day's range, shown in a translucent gray/deep green, as columns. This is the current bar's range. If intraday, it will repaint.
The 5 day average up to the current bar, shown as a step-line plot in orange. If intraday, it will repaint.
The projected range: a thinner blue histogram column, this is offset one bar forward, as it is a future estimate/forward-looking. It too will repaint if the current day is still not complete.
To evaluate the historical results of the chosen settings visually (eye-ball it!), compare the blue histogram bar to the gray bar/column, i.e. the estimate vs. actual range:
When the blue bar is generally within the gray column, and close enough to that column's size/range, then the projected estimation has been reasonable.
if the blue bar tends to be relatively smaller than the gray bar, then we are underestimating often. Increase the projection multiple setting, as a simple fix.
if the blue bar tends to exceed the range of the gray bar a lot, we are overestimating often. Lower the projection multiple setting, as a simple fix.
Guppy's document says that they basically calculate this ADR for multiple markets and focus on markets with the top 5 ranges (in descending order, of course), to maximise the profit potential on intraday trades planned for the next day. Because it is an estimation, this calculation can be run at the end of the day on completed bars.
This indicator also allows displaying the value as percentages, taking the logic of the ATR% (ATR Percent) indicator, which divides the ATR by the close value and multiplies it by 100 to get a normalised percentage value, allowing it to be compared across markets (but in the same timeframe!).
QuantumSync Pulse [ w.aritas ]QuantumSync Pulse (QSP) is an advanced technical indicator crafted for traders seeking a dynamic and adaptable tool to analyze diverse market conditions. By integrating momentum, mean reversion, and regime detection with quantum-inspired calculations and entropy analysis, QSP offers a powerful histogram that reflects trend strength and market uncertainty. With multi-timeframe synchronization, adaptive filtering, and customizable visualization, it’s a versatile addition to any trading strategy.
Key Features
Hybrid Signals: Combines momentum and mean reversion, dynamically weighted by market regime.
Quantum Tunneling: Enhances responsiveness in volatile markets using volatility-adjusted calculations.
3-State Entropy: Assesses market uncertainty across up, down, and neutral states.
Regime Detection: Adapts signal weights with Hurst exponent and volatility ROC.
Multi-Timeframe Alignment: Syncs with higher timeframe trends for context.
Customizable Histogram: Displays trend strength with ADX-based visuals and flexible styling.
How to Use and Interpret
Histogram Interpretation
Positive (Above Zero): Bullish momentum; color intensity shows trend strength.
Negative (Below Zero): Bearish momentum; gradients indicate weakness.
Overlaps: Alignment of final_z (signal) and ohlc4 (price) histograms highlights key price levels or turning points.
Regime Visualization
Green Background: Trending market; prioritize momentum signals.
Red Background: Mean-reverting market; focus on reversion signals.
Blue Background: Neutral state; balance both signal types.
Trading Signals
Buy: Histogram crosses above zero or shows positive divergence between histograms.
Sell: Histogram crosses below zero or exhibits negative divergence.
Confirmation: Match signals with regime background—green for trends, red for ranges.
Customization
Tweak Momentum Length, Entropy Lookback, and Hurst Exponent Lookback for sensitivity.
Adjust color themes and transparency to suit your charts.
Tips for Optimal Use
Timeframes: Use higher timeframes (1h, 4h) for trend context and lower (5m, 15m) for entries.
Pairing: Combine with RSI, MACD, or volume indicators for confirmation.
Backtesting: Test settings on historical data for asset-specific optimization.
Overlaps: Watch for histogram overlaps to identify support, resistance, or reversals.
Simulated Performance
Trending Markets: Histogram stays above/below zero, with overlaps at retracements for entries.
Range-Bound Markets: Oscillates around zero; overlaps signal reversals in red regimes.
Volatile Markets: Quantum tunneling ensures quick reactions, with filters reducing noise.
Elevate your trading with QuantumSync Pulse—a sophisticated tool that adapts to the market’s rhythm and your unique style.
Auto Trend Channel + Buy/Sell AlertsThis indicator automatically detects trend channels using a linear regression line, and dynamically plots upper and lower channel boundaries based on standard deviation. It helps traders identify potential Buy and Sell zones with clear visual signals and customizable alerts.
💡 How It Works:
🧠 Regression-Based Channel: Calculates the central trend line using ta.linreg() over a user-defined length.
📏 Dynamic Boundaries: Upper and lower channel lines are offset by a multiplier of the standard deviation for precision volatility tracking.
✅ Buy Signals: Triggered when price crosses above the lower boundary — potential bounce entry.
❌ Sell Signals: Triggered when price crosses below the upper boundary — potential reversal exit.
🔔 Alerts Enabled: Get real-time alerts when price touches the channel lines.
NIG Probability TableNormal-Inverse Gaussian Probability Table
This indicator implements the Normal-Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution to estimate the likelihood of future price based on recent market behavior.
📊 Key Features:
- Estimates the parameters (α: tail heaviness, β: skewness, δ: scale, μ: location)
of the NIG distribution using a sliding window over log returns.
- Uses a numerically approximated version of the modified Bessel function (K₁)
to calculate the NIG probability density function (PDF).
- Normalizes the total probability across all bins to ensure the values are interpretable.
- Displays a dynamic probability table showing the chance of future returns falling into each bin.
⚠️ Notes:
- This is a real-time approximation. The Bessel function and posterior inference are simplified.
- Tail probabilities and shape parameters are sensitive to the window size and input settings.
- Useful for risk analysis, option overlays, and strategy filters.
M2 Global Liquidity Index [Extended + Offset]M2 Global Liquidity Index
This indicator visualizes global M2 money supply, weighted in USD, based on major economic regions.
Features:
Standard Mode: Includes M2 data from the USA, China, Eurozone, Japan, and the UK.
Extended Mode: Adds Switzerland, Canada, India, Russia, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, and South Africa.
Offset Function: Adjustable time lag (78 or 108 days) to analyze the delayed impact of liquidity on financial markets.
Use Case:
Designed to help identify global liquidity cycles and assess potential turning points in financial markets. Rising global liquidity generally supports risk assets like equities and crypto, while declining liquidity can put downward pressure on these markets.
Technical Details:
Non-USD M2 values are converted using real-time FX rates.
All values are displayed in trillions of USD (Tn).
Note:
Not all countries release M2 data in real-time or at the same frequency. Minor delays and discrepancies may occur.
Example:
Log-Normal Price ForecastLog-Normal Price Forecast
This Pine Script creates a log-normal forecast model of future price movements on a TradingView chart, based on historical log returns. It plots expected price trajectories and bands representing different levels of statistical deviation.
Parameters
Model Length – Number of bars used to calculate average and standard deviation of log returns (default: 100).
Forecast Length – Number of bars into the future for which the forecast is projected (default: 100, max: 500).
Volatility SMA Length – The smoothing length for the standard deviation (default: 20).
Confidence Intervals – Confidence intervals for price bands (default: 95%, 99%, 99.9%).
for your comparison: Global M2 Money Supply // Days Offset =📈 Global M2 Money Supply Overlay – Offset Adjustable
This script plots an aggregated, FX-adjusted global M2 money supply index directly on your TradingView chart. It pulls M2 data from multiple global regions—including North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, and more—and normalizes it for comparison in USD terms.
You can apply a custom time offset to the M2 line using the settings, allowing you to test potential leading or lagging correlations between global liquidity and market price action (e.g., Bitcoin, equities, commodities).
💡 Ideal for macro traders, long-term investors, and anyone interested in liquidity-driven market behavior.
Features:
Combines M2 data from 20+ countries and currency zones
FX-adjusted for consistency in USD terms
Offset slider to shift M2 data forward or backward in time
Scaled to trillions for readability
Plots directly on the main chart for visual comparison
