Turtle Trading Strategy@lihexieThe full implementation of the Turtle Trading Rules (as distinct from the various truncated versions circulating within the community) is now ready.
This trading strategy script distinguishes itself from all currently publicly available Turtle trading systems on Tradingview by comprehensively embodying the rules for entries, exits, position management, and profit and loss controls.
Market Selection:
Trade in highly liquid markets such as forex, commodity futures, and stock index futures.
Entry Strategies:
Model 1: Buy when the price breaks above the highest point of the last 20 trading days; Sell when the price drops below the lowest point of the last 20 trading days. When an entry opportunity arises, if the previous trade was profitable, skip the current breakout opportunity and refrain from entering.
Model 2: Buy when the price breaks above the highest point of the last 55 trading days; Sell when the price drops below the lowest point of the last 55 trading days.
Position Sizing:
Determine the size of each position based on the price volatility (ATR) to ensure that the risk of each trade does not exceed 2% of the account balance.
Exit Strategies:
1. Use a fixed stop-loss point to limit losses: Close long positions when the price falls below the lowest point of the last 10 trading days.
2. Trailing stop-loss: Once a position is profitable, adjust the stop-loss point to protect profits.
Pyramiding Rules:
Unit Doubling: Increase position size by one unit every time the price moves forward by n (default is 0.5) units of ATR, up to a maximum of 4 units, while also raising the stop-loss point to below the ATR value at the level of additional entries.
海龟交易法则的完整实现（区别于当前社区各种有阉割海龟交易系统代码）
本策略脚本区别于Tradingview目前公开的所有的海龟交易系统，完整的实现了海龟交易法则中入场、出场、仓位管理，止盈止损的规则。
市场选择：
选择流动性高的市场进行交易，如外汇、商品期货和股指期货等。
入市策略：
模式1：当价格突破过去20个交易日的高点时，买入；当价格跌破过去20个交易日的低点时，卖出。当出现入场机会时，如果上一笔交易是盈利的，那么跳过当前突破的机会，不进行入场。
模式2：当价格突破过去55个交易日的高点时，买入；当价格跌破过去55个交易日的低点时，卖出。
头寸规模：
根据价格波动性（ATR）来确定每个头寸的大小, 使每笔交易的风险不超过账户余额的2%。
退出策略：
1. 使用一个固定的止损点来限制损失：当多头头寸的价格跌破过去10个交易日的低点时，平仓止损。
2. 跟踪止损：一旦头寸盈利，移动止损点以保护利润。
加仓规则：
单位加倍：每当价格向前n（默认是0.5）个单位的ATR移动时，就增加一个单位的头寸大小（默认最大头寸数量是4个），同时将止损点提升至加仓点位的ATR值以下。
在腳本中搜尋"量比大于10+外盘大于内盘+股票市场含义"
Goertzel Adaptive JMA T3Hello Fellas,
The Goertzel Adaptive JMA T3 is a powerful indicator that combines my own created Goertzel adaptive length with Jurik and T3 Moving Averages. The primary intention of the indicator is to demonstrate the new adaptive length algorithm by applying it on bleeding-edge MAs.
It is useable like any moving average, and the new Goertzel adaptive length algorithm can be used to make own indicators Goertzel adaptive.
Used Adaptive Length Algorithms
Normalized Goertzel Power: This uses the normalized power of the Goertzel algorithm to compute an adaptive length without the special operations, like detrending, Ehlers uses for his DFT adaptive length.
Ehlers Mod: This uses the Goertzel algorithm instead of the DFT, originally used by Ehlers, to compute a modified version of his original approach, which sticks as close as possible to the original approach.
Scoring System
The scoring system determines if bars are red or green and collects them.
Then, it goes through all collected red and green bars and checks how big they are and if they are above or below the selected MA. It is positive when green bars are under MA or when red bars are above MA.
Then, it accumulates the size for all positive green bars and for all positive red bars. The same happens for negative green and red bars.
Finally, it calculates the score by ((positiveGreenBars + positiveRedBars) / (negativeGreenBars + negativeRedBars)) * 100 with the scale 0–100.
Signals
Is the price above MA? -> bullish market
Is the price below MA? -> bearish market
Usage
Adjust the settings to reach the highest score, and enjoy an outstanding adaptive MA.
It should be useable on all timeframes. It is recommended to use the indicator on the timeframe where you can get the highest score.
Now, follows a bunch of knowledge for people who don't know about the concepts used here.
T3
The T3 moving average, short for "Tim Tillson's Triple Exponential Moving Average," is a technical indicator used in financial markets and technical analysis to smooth out price data over a specific period. It was developed by Tim Tillson, a software project manager at Hewlett-Packard, with expertise in Mathematics and Computer Science.
The T3 moving average is an enhancement of the traditional Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and aims to overcome some of its limitations. The primary goal of the T3 moving average is to provide a smoother representation of price trends while minimizing lag compared to other moving averages like Simple Moving Average (SMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), or EMA.
To compute the T3 moving average, it involves a triple smoothing process using exponential moving averages. Here's how it works:
Calculate the first exponential moving average (EMA1) of the price data over a specific period 'n.'
Calculate the second exponential moving average (EMA2) of EMA1 using the same period 'n.'
Calculate the third exponential moving average (EMA3) of EMA2 using the same period 'n.'
The formula for the T3 moving average is as follows:
T3 = 3 * (EMA1) - 3 * (EMA2) + (EMA3)
By applying this triple smoothing process, the T3 moving average is intended to offer reduced noise and improved responsiveness to price trends. It achieves this by incorporating multiple time frames of the exponential moving averages, resulting in a more accurate representation of the underlying price action.
JMA
The Jurik Moving Average (JMA) is a technical indicator used in trading to predict price direction. Developed by Mark Jurik, it’s a type of weighted moving average that gives more weight to recent market data rather than past historical data.
JMA is known for its superior noise elimination. It’s a causal, nonlinear, and adaptive filter, meaning it responds to changes in price action without introducing unnecessary lag. This makes JMA a world-class moving average that tracks and smooths price charts or any market-related time series with surprising agility.
In comparison to other moving averages, such as the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), JMA is known to track fast price movement more accurately. This allows traders to apply their strategies to a more accurate picture of price action.
Goertzel Algorithm
The Goertzel algorithm is a technique in digital signal processing (DSP) for efficient evaluation of individual terms of the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). It's particularly useful when you need to compute a small number of selected frequency components. Unlike direct DFT calculations, the Goertzel algorithm applies a single real-valued coefficient at each iteration, using real-valued arithmetic for real-valued input sequences. This makes it more numerically efficient when computing a small number of selected frequency components¹.
Discrete Fourier Transform
The Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) is a mathematical technique used in signal processing to convert a finite sequence of equally-spaced samples of a function into a same-length sequence of equally-spaced samples of the discrete-time Fourier transform (DTFT), which is a complex-valued function of frequency . The DFT provides a frequency domain representation of the original input sequence .
Usage of DFT/Goertzel In Adaptive Length Algorithms
Adaptive length algorithms are automated trading systems that can dynamically adjust their parameters in response to real-time market data. This adaptability enables them to optimize their trading strategies as market conditions fluctuate. Both the Goertzel algorithm and DFT can be used in these algorithms to analyze market data and detect cycles or patterns, which can then be used to adjust the parameters of the trading strategy.
The Goertzel algorithm is more efficient than the DFT when you need to compute a small number of selected frequency components. However, for covering a full spectrum, the Goertzel algorithm has a higher order of complexity than fast Fourier transform (FFT) algorithms.
I hope this can help you somehow.
Thanks for reading, and keep it up.
Best regards,
simwai
---
Credits to:
@ClassicScott
@yatrader2
@cheatcountry
@loxx
MACD All In One Screener [ChartPrime]INTRODUCTION
MACD All In One Screener (ChartPrime) is a multi instrument, multi timeframe indicator designed to provide traders with a comprehensive solution to monitoring the market. This indicator is designed to be easy to use and visually appealing while also being highly flexible and feature rich. Users can pick up to 10 symbols not including the chart's symbol and set up alerts for many different signals that the MACD produces. One standout feature of this indicator is its ability to display not only each symbol individually as a MACD but you can also view its chart from within this indicator. This removes the need to flip between symbols to see the price action for your basket.
On top of that we have designed this indicator to be friendly with "indicator on indicator" by providing outputs for all of the standards of price that users may want. Included is an overview section that shows all of the symbols signals symbolically over time. Additionally we have included a table for easy monitoring. This table includes the symbol, its timeframe, the current alert, and its histogram state. To make things as user friendly as possible we have also included rich error handling that tells you exactly what is wrong with your configuration.
HOW TO USE
To use this indicator, simply add it to your chart and navigate to the settings. From there select the symbols you want to monitor and the timeframes you want to use. Next you want to navigate down to the alerts section to select the what alerts you want to receive, and what symbols you want to get alerts for. Finally, you wan to create your alert using "Any alert() function call". Now your screener is all set up!
OVERVIEW OF INPUTS
View allows you to select what the indicator currently displays. You can pick from any one of the selected symbols, an overview of all of the symbols, or simply nothing. If you want to only use the table, "None" is provided so you can move the indicator into the chart panel.
View Toggle lets you pick from displaying the MACD for the selected symbol or the Price Action as a candle chart. To see your "indicator on indicator" you will have to select a symbol from the view list. There is a bug where if you select "Overview" while you are using "indicator on indicator" your added indicator will see the last symbol you viewed. To fix this, simply change the setting of your overlaid indicator and it will correct its self.
History Length is the number of historical bars to calculate over. This feature is here to prevent the indicator from breaking due to uneven historical data between the symbols.
Show Price Line toggles a dotted line that follows the current symbols closing price when "Price" is selected under the "View Toggle" dropdown.
Show Symbol Label toggles a label that displays the current symbols name and timeframe. This only impacts the single symbol view.
Overview Label Color adjusts the color of the symbol labels for both overview and single symbol view.
MA Type lets you pick what kind of moving average you want to use for the oscillator or signal. You can pick from the standard SMA or EMA.
Fast Length is a standard input for MACD. This lets you pick the period of the fast MA.
Slow Length , just like Fast Lenght, is a standard input for MACD. This lets you pick the period of the slow MA.
Signal Length is another standard input for MACD. This lets you configure the period of the signal MA.
MACD Cross Overlay Icon is a toggle to display MACD crosses when viewing a single symbol's MACD. When the MACD has a bullish cross it will plot a bullish dot, and when it has a bearish cross it will plot a bearish dot. This is purely visual.
Regular Bullish and Bearish toggles the visual display of the divergences on the single symbol view. This does not effect the indicators ability do send alerts.
Divergence Look Right adjusts the number of bars into the future to look for confirmation of a signal. This directly impacts lag but enhances stability.
Divergence Look Left adjusts the number of bars into the past to check for a signal. A longer period will filter out smaller moves
Maximum Lookback adjusts the maximum size of a divergence.
Minimum Lookback adjusts the minimum size of a divergence.
Divergence Drawings picks how you want to visualize the divergence. You can pick from displaying it as a line, a label, or both.
Enable Table toggles the overview table. When enabled it will show you the enabled symbols and their current state. From left to right: symbol name, timeframe, current alert, and histogram state.
Position picks where on the chart you want the table to be.
Text Color adjusts the text color of the table.
BG Color adjusts the background color of the table.
Frame Color adjust the frame color of the table.
Current Symbol Time Frame adjusts the timeframe of the chart's symbol.
Symbol 1 - 10 pick "Symbol's" symbol and timeframe. To use higher timeframes, the symbol's have to be the same type. You can't have a crypto and a stock using HTF at the same time as they don't have the same sessions and will result in an error. You can use unsafe mode (as described below) to potentially get around this.
Enable Symbol when enabled it will give you alerts for the symbol. This also enables the symbol in the overview. If this is disabled it won't send alerts, and it will not show up in overview, or the table.
Wait for Close enables waiting for the bar to close before printing an alert.
Alert Symbol Size picks what size you want the overview symbols to be.
Enable Cross Over 0 Alert: MACD crosses over the 0 line.
Enable Cross Under 0 Alert: MACD crosses under the 0 line.
Enable MACD Cross Bullish Alert: Bullish MACD cross.
Enable MACD Cross Bearish Alert: Bearish MACD cross.
Enable Histogram Bullish Turn Alert: MACD begins to turn bullish but hasn't crossed.
Enable Histogram Bearish Turn Alert: MACD begins to turn bearish but hasn't crossed.
Enable Histogram Bullish Continuation Alert: MACD is in a bullish cross state and it was declining but began rising again.
Enable Histogram Bearish Continuation Alert: MACD is in a bearish cross state and it was rising but began falling again.
Enable Bullish/Bearish Divergence Alert enables divergence alerts. Divergences are lagging, especially on a higher timeframe. These alerts will also tell you the time in the past when the divergence occurred.
Color Section is provided to allow for personalization of the indicator. Everything can be adjusted here.
Disable Error Checking: Only enable this if you want to bypass the built in error checking. This will enable 'Safe Requesting'. Safe Requesting will only request enabled symbols and you will not be able to view symbols that are not enabled in this mode. Only use this if you want to mix symbol types and you know it will work. (An example would be viewing stocks and SPY at the same time.)
CONCLUSION
The MACD All In One Screener (ChartPrime) is a versatile indicator designed to monitor multiple symbols across various timeframes. The flexibility in customization, from MACD settings to visual alerts and table presentations, allows users to tailor the screener to their needs and preferences. We hope you find this as useful and interesting as we do and wish you good luck in the market!
Enjoy
MACD_TRIGGER_CROSS_TRIANGLEMACD Triangle Trigger Indicator by thebearfib
Overview
The MACD Cross Triangle Indicator is a powerful tool for traders who rely on the MACD's signal line crossovers to make informed trading decisions. This indicator enhances the traditional MACD by allowing users to customize triggers for bullish and bearish signals and by displaying these signals directly on the chart with visually distinctive labels.
Features
Customizable Color Scheme: Choose distinct colors for bullish and bearish signals to fit your chart's theme or your personal preference.
Flexible Trigger Conditions: Select from a variety of trigger conditions based on MACD and signal line behaviors over a specified number of bars back.
Visual Signal Indicators: Bullish and bearish signals are marked with upward and downward triangles, making it easy to spot potential entry or exit points.
Detailed Trigger Descriptions: A comprehensive table lists all available triggers and their descriptions, aiding in selection and understanding of each trigger's mechanism.
Configuration Options
Bullish and Bearish Colors: Customize the color of the labels for bullish (upward) and bearish (downward) signals.
Trend Lookback Period: Choose how far back (in bars) the indicator should look to determine the trend, affecting the calculation of certain triggers.
Trigger Selection for Bullish and Bearish Signals: Pick specific triggers for both bullish and bearish conditions from a list of 10 different criteria, ranging from MACD crossovers to historical comparisons of MACD, signal line, and histogram values.
Label Size and Font Settings: Adjust the size of the signal labels on the chart and the font size of the trigger descriptions table to ensure readability and fit with your chart layout.
Trigger Descriptions Table Position and Color: Customize the position and color of the trigger descriptions table to match your chart's aesthetic and layout preferences.
Trigger Mechanisms
Trigger 1 to 10: Each trigger corresponds to a specific condition involving the MACD line, signal line, and histogram. These include crossovers, directional changes compared to previous bars, and comparisons of current values to historical values.
Usage
1. Select Trigger Conditions: Choose the desired triggers for bullish and bearish signals based on your trading strategy.
2. Customize Visuals: Set your preferred colors for the bullish and bearish labels, adjust label and font sizes, and configure the trigger descriptions table.
3. Analyze Signals: Watch for the upward (bullish) and downward (bearish) triangles to identify potential trading opportunities based on MACD crossover signals.
Conclusion
The MACD Cross Triangle Indicator offers a customizable and visually intuitive way to leverage MACD crossover signals for trading. With its flexible settings and clear signal indicators, traders can tailor the indicator to fit their strategy and improve their decision-making process on TradingView.
EPS GridIntroduction:
This simple indicator offers insights into the relationship between stock prices and earnings, aiding in the assessment of valuation dynamics during different periods.
Understanding Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio:
The commonly used Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio, calculated as Current Price divided by Earnings Per Share (EPS) over the trailing 12 months (TTM), serves as a fundamental metric. Here, we use this formula to estimate a stock's price. For instance, multiplying EPS by 10 provides an approximation of the stock price with a P/E ratio of 10.
The Grid Concept:
Utilizing this principle, a visual grid is constructed to illustrate how stock prices correlate with earnings. This grid facilitates the identification of both potential bargains and overvalued stocks.
How to Utilize:
This indicator is pre-configured with earnings multiples of 10, 15, 20, and 25. Simply add it to your chart and observe whether earnings demonstrate consistent growth. If prices lag behind earnings, a potential catch-up phase may ensue in the future.
Happy Investing!
Embark on your investment journey armed with this indicator, and may it guide you towards informed decisions and successful ventures.
Monte Carlo Future Moves [ChartPrime]ORIGINS AND HISTORICAL BACKGROUND:
Prior to the the advent of the Monte Carlo method, examining well-understood deterministic problems via simulation generally utilized statistical sampling to gauge uncertainty estimations. The Monte Carlo (MC) approach inverts this paradigm by modeling with probabilistic metaheuristics to address deterministic problems. Addressing Buffon's needle problem, an early form of the Monte Carlo method estimated π (3.14159) by dropping needles on a floor. Later, the modern MC inception primarily began when Stanislaw Ulam was playing solitaire games while experiencing illness and recovery.
Ulam further developed, applied, and ascribed "Monte Carlo" as a classified code name to maintain a level of secrecy for the modern method applications during collaborative investigations on neutron diffusion and collision intricacies with John von Neumann. Despite having relevant data, physicist's conventional deterministic mathematical methods were unable to solve mysterious "neutronion problems". Monte Carlo filled in the gaps necessary to resolve this perplexing neutron problem with innovative statistics, and the resilient MC continues onward to have diverse application in many fields of science. MC also extends into the realm of relevance within finance.
APPLICATION IN FINANCE:
Building on its historical roots, the Monte Carlo method's transition into finance opened new avenues for risk assessment and predictive analysis. In financial markets, characterized by uncertainty and complex variables, this method offers a powerful tool for simulating a wide range of scenarios and assessing probabilities of different outcomes. By employing probabilistic models to predict price movements, the Monte Carlo method helps in creating more resilient and informed trading strategies. This approach is particularly valuable in options pricing, portfolio management, and risk assessment, where understanding the range of potential outcomes is crucial for making sound investment decisions. Our indicator utilizes this methodology, blending traditional financial analysis with advanced statistical techniques.
THE INDICATOR:
The Monte Carlo Future Moves (ChartPrime) indicator is designed to predict future price movements. It simulates various possible price paths, showing the likelihood of different outcomes. We have designed it to be simple to use and understand by displaying lines indicating the most likely bullish and bearish outcomes. The arrows point to these areas making it intuitive to understand. Also included is extreme price levels shown in blue and yellow. This is the most likely extreme range that the price will move to. The outcome distribution is there to show you the range of outcomes along with a visual representation of the possible future outcomes. To make things more user friendly we have also included a representation of this distribution as a background heatmap. The brighter the price level, the more likely the price will end at that level. Finally, we have also included a market bias indication on the side that shows you the general bullish/bearish probabilities.
HOW TO USE:
To use this indicator you want to first assess the market bias. From there you want to target the most likely polar outcome. You can use the range of outcomes to assess your risk and set a stop within a reasonable range of the desired target. By default the indicator projects 10 steps into the future, however this can be easily adjusted in the settings. Generally this indicator excels at mid-term estimations and may yield inconclusive results if the prediction period is too short or too long. You can change the granularity of the outcomes to give you a more or less detailed view of the future. That being said, a lower resolution can make the predictions less useful while a higher resolution can give you a less useful picture. If you decide to use a higher resolution we have included an option to smooth the final result. This is intended to reduce the uncertainty and noise in the predicted outcomes. It is advised to use the minimum level of smoothing possible as a high level of smoothing will greatly reduce the accuracy.
INPUT SECTION:
Derivative Source changes how the indicator sees the price movements. When you set this to Candle it will use the difference between the open and close of each candle. If set to Move, it will use the difference between closing prices. If you are in a market with gaps, you might want to use Candle as this will prevent the indicator from seeing gaps.
Number of Simulations is a crucial setting as it is the core of this indicator. This determines the number of simulations the indicator will use to get its final result. By default it is set to 1000 as we feel like that is around the minimum number of simulations required to get a reasonable output while maintaining stability. In tests the maximum number of simulations we have been able to consistently achieve is 2000.
Lookback is the number of historical candles to account for. A lookback that is too short will not have enough data to accurately assess the likelihood of a price movement, while a period that is too large can make the data less relevant. By default this is set to 1000 as we feel like this is a reasonable tradeoff between volume of data and relevance.
Steps Into Future is the prediction period. By default we have picked a period of 10 steps as this has a good balance between accuracy and usability. The more steps into the future you go, the more uncertain the future outcome will be.
Outcome Granularity controls the precision of the simulated outcomes. By default this is set to 40 as its a good balance between resolution and accuracy.
Outcome Smoothing allows you to smooth the outcome distribution. By default this is set to 0 as it is generally not needed for lower resolutions. Smoothing levels beyond 2 are not recommended as it will negatively impact the output.
Returns Granularity controls the level of definition in the collected price movements. This directly impacts indicator performance and is set to 50 by default because its a good balance between fidelity and usability. When this number is too small, the simulations will be less accurate while numbers too large will negatively impact the probabilities of the movements.
Drift is the trend component in the simulation. This adds the directionality of the simulations by biasing the movements in the current direction of the market. We have included both the standard formula for drift and linear regression. Both methods are well suited for simulating future price movements and have their own advantages. The drift period is set to 100 by default as its a good balance between current and historical directionality. You may want to increase or decrease this number depending on the current market conditions but it is advised to use a period that isn't too small. If your period is too small it can skew the outcomes too much resulting in poor performance. When this is set to 0 it will use the same period as your lookback.
Volatility Adjust , adjusts the simulation to include current volatility. This makes sure that the price movements in the simulation reflects the current market conditions better by making sure that each price move is at least a minimum size.
Returns Style allows you to pick between using percent moves and log returns. We have opted to make percent move the default as it is more intuitive for beginners however both settings yield similar results. Log returns can be less cpu intensive so it might be desirable for longer term predictions.
Precision adjusts the rounding of used when collecting the frequency of price movement sizes. By default this is set to 4 as its is fairly accurate without impacting performance too much. A larger number will make the indicator more precise but at the cost of cpu time. Precision levels that are too small can greatly reduce the accuracy of the simulation and even break the indicator all together.
Update Every Bar allows you to recalculate the prediction every bar and is there for you if you want to strictly use the market bias. It is not recommended to enable this feature but it is there for flexibility.
Side of Chart allows you to pick what side of the price action you want the visuals to be on. When its set to the right everything will be to the right of the starting point and when its set to Left it will position everything to the left of the starting point.
Move Visualization is there to give you an arrow to the most likely bullish and bearish moves. It is meant as a visual aid and visualization tool. The color of these arrows use the same colors as the distribution.
Most Likely Move is a horizontal line that indicates the most likely move. It is positioned in the same location as the Move Visualization.
Standard Deviation is horizontal lines at the extremities of the simulated price action. These represent the most likely range of the future outcomes. You can adjust the multiplier of the standard deviation but by default it is set to 2.
Most Likely Direction is a vertical bar that shows you the sum of the up and down probabilities. It is there to show you the bias of the outcomes and guide you in decision making.
Max Probability Zone is a horizontal line that highlights the location of the highest probability move. You can think of it almost like the POC in a volume distribution but in this case it is the "most likely" single outcome.
Outcome Distribution allows you to toggle the distribution on or off. This is the distribution of all of the simulated outcomes. You can toggle the scale width of the distribution to fit your visual style.
Distribution Text toggles the probability text inside of the distribution bars. When you have a large number for the outcome granularity this text may not be visible and you may want to disable this feature.
Background is a heatmap of the outcome distribution. This allows you to visualize the underlying distribution without the need for the distribution histogram. The brighter the color, the more likely the outcome is for that level. It can be useful for visualizing the range of possible outcomes.
Starting Line is simply a horizontal line indicating the starting point of the simulation. It just the opening price for the starting position.
Extend Lines allows you to extend the lines and background past the prediction period.
CONCLUSION:
With its intuitive visuals and flexible settings, the Monte Carlo Future Moves (ChartPrime) indicator is practice and easy to use. It brings clarity to price movement predictions, helping you to build confidence in your strategies. This indicator not only reflects the evolution of technical analysis but also touches on data-driven insights.
Enjoy
Portfolio Management [TrendX_]Portfolio Management is a powerful tool that helps you create and manage your own portfolio of stocks, based on your risk and return preferences.
*** Note: You should select the appropriate index for each stock as the benchmark to compare your portfolio’s performance.
*** Note: You should apply the indicator to the same chart as the benchmark, so that it can capture the historical trends of all the 10 stocks in your portfolio.
USAGE
Analyze your portfolio’s return factor, which shows the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of each stock and the portfolio as a whole, as well as the weight of each stock in the portfolio.
The Weighting approach contains 2 options, Equal and Growth-based method:
Customize your portfolio by selecting up to 10 stocks from a wide range of markets and sectors:
Compare your portfolio’s performance with a benchmark of your choice, which is the S&P500 by default setting.
Evaluate your portfolio’s risk factor, which includes the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the portfolio beta, and the Sharpe ratio of both the portfolio and the benchmark:
- CAPM is a model that calculates the expected return of the portfolio based on its risk and the risk-free rate of return.
- Portfolio beta is a measure of how sensitive the portfolio is to the movements of the benchmark. A beta of 1 means the portfolio moves in sync with the benchmark, a beta of less than 1 means the portfolio is less volatile than the benchmark, and a beta of more than 1 means the portfolio is more volatile than the benchmark.
- Sharpe ratio measures how much excess return the portfolio generates per unit of risk. It is calculated by subtracting the risk-free rate of return from the portfolio’s return, and dividing by the portfolio’s standard deviation. A higher Sharpe ratio means the portfolio has a better risk-adjusted return. A Sharpe ratio of more than 1 is considered good, a Sharpe ratio of more than 2 is considered very good, and a Sharpe ratio of more than 3 is considered excellent .
Adjust your portfolio’s rebalancing strategy, which determines when and how to change the weight of each stock in the portfolio to optimize your return and risk objectives. The tool also suggests a default hedging-stock asset, which is the US dollar interpreted through the dollar index (DXY):
- The dollar index is a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of other major currencies. It is often used as a proxy for the global economic sentiment and the demand for safe-haven assets. A rising dollar index means the US dollar is strengthening, which may indicate a bearish outlook for the stock market. A falling dollar index means the US dollar is weakening, which may indicate a bullish outlook for the stock market.
- The rebalancing strategy suggest increasing the weight of the hedging-stock asset when the dollar index is under positive supertrend condition, and decreasing the weight of the hedging-stock asset when the dollar index is in the downward supertrend. This way, you can hedge against the adverse effects of the stock market fluctuations on your portfolio, simply you can just cash out at the suggested hedging weight.
CONCLUSION
Investors can gain a deeper insight into their portfolio’s performance, risk, and potential, and make informed decisions to achieve their financial goals with confidence and ease.
DISCLAIMER
The results achieved in the past are not all reliable sources of what will happen in the future. There are many factors and uncertainties that can affect the outcome of any endeavor, and no one can guarantee or predict with certainty what will occur.
Therefore, you should always exercise caution and judgment when making decisions based on past performance.
Ichimoku Clouds Strategy Long and ShortOverview:
The Ichimoku Clouds Strategy leverages the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo technique to offer traders a range of innovative features, enhancing market analysis and trading efficiency. This strategy is distinct in its combination of standard methodology and advanced customization, making it suitable for both novice and experienced traders.
Unique Features:
Enhanced Interpretation: The strategy introduces weak, neutral, and strong bullish/bearish signals, enabling detailed interpretation of the Ichimoku cloud and direct chart plotting.
Configurable Trading Periods: Users can tailor the strategy to specific market windows, adapting to different market conditions.
Dual Trading Modes: Long and Short modes are available, allowing alignment with market trends.
Flexible Risk Management: Offers three styles in each mode, combining fixed risk management with dynamic indicator states for versatile trade management.
Indicator Line Plotting: Enables plotting of Ichimoku indicator lines on the chart for visual decision-making support.
Methodology:
The strategy utilizes the standard Ichimoku Kinko Hyo model, interpreting indicator values with settings adjustable through a user-friendly menu. This approach is enhanced by TradingView's built-in strategy tester for customization and market selection.
Risk Management:
Our approach to risk management is dynamic and indicator-centric. With data from the last year, we focus on dynamic indicator states interpretations to mitigate manual setting causing human factor biases. Users still have the option to set a fixed stop loss and/or take profit per position using the corresponding parameters in settings, aligning with their risk tolerance.
Backtest Results:
Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2023.01.01 - 2024.01.04. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions.
Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks.
Maximum Single Position Loss: -6.29%
Maximum Single Profit: 22.32%
Net Profit: +10 901.95 USDT (+109.02%)
Total Trades: 119 (51.26% profitability)
Profit Factor: 1.775
Maximum Accumulated Loss: 4 185.37 USDT (-22.87%)
Average Profit per Trade: 91.67 USDT (+0.7%)
Average Trade Duration: 56 hours
These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters. Backtest is calculated using deep backtest option in TradingView built-in strategy tester
How to Use:
Add the script to favorites for easy access.
Apply to the desired chart and timeframe (optimal performance observed on the 1H chart, ForEx or cryptocurrency top-10 coins with quote asset USDT).
Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu.
Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrex commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation
Multi VWAP [MW]Introduction
The Multi VWAP tool extends the concept of using the Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price, popularized by its founder, Brian Shannon, founder of AlphaTrends, and creates automatic AVWAPS for multiple anchor points, such as for 2-day, 3-day, 4-day, 5-day, and custom date anchors as well as automagically creating month-to-date and year-to-date anchors. Currently, most standard VWAP tools allow users to place custom anchored VWAPs, but the routine of doing this for every equity being watched can become cumbersome. This tool makes that process multi-times easier. Brian Shannon is also the author of “Maximum Trading Gains With Anchored VWAP: The Perfect Combination of Price, Time, and Volume”. Available at Amazon.
Settings
Daily VWAP : A continuous line of the the daily Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weekly VWAP : A continuous line of the weekly VWAP
2-Day AVWAP : The anchored VWAP from 2 trading days ago (holidays and weekends are excluded in this calculation)
3-Day AVWAP : The anchored VWAP from 3 trading days ago
4-Day AVWAP : The anchored VWAP from 4 trading days ago
5-Day AVWAP : The anchored VWAP from 5 trading days ago. The slope of this line and the position of the price relative to this line can be used to determine trend direction.
10-Day AVWAP : The anchored VWAP from 10 trading days ago
Month-to-Date AVWAP : The anchored VWAP from the beginning of the current month
Year-to-Date AVWAP : The anchored VWAP from the beginning of the current year
Custom Date AVWAP : Sets a date to begin an anchored VWAP starting from any time.
Use only the most recent VWAP for Week, Month, and Year: Toggles on and off the continuous weekly, monthly, and yearly VWAPs
Calculations
This indicator does not provide buy or sell signals. It is simply the VWAP calculated starting from an “anchor point”, or start time. It is the calculated by the summation of Price x Volume / Volume for the period starting at the anchor point.
How to Interpret
According to Brian Shannon, VWAP is an objective measure of what the average trader has paid for a particular equity over a given period, and is the value that large institutional investors frequently use as a trade signal. Therefore, by definition, when the price is above an AVWAP, buyers are in control for that period of time. Likewise, if the price is below the AVWAP, sellers are in control for that period of time.
Shannon also distinguishes the importance of an increasing or decreasing 5 day VWAP, which reflects the price sentiment, objectively, for roughly the last trading week, or 5 trading days. Pricing below a decreasing 5-day VWAP is considered very bearish, while pricing above an increasing 5-day VWAP is considered bullish and is recommended before considering long positions.
Additionally, a custom VWAP can be generated to coincide with important events, such as FOMC meetings, CPI reports, earnings reports, etc.
Practically speaking, price action can tend to change direction when a significant VWAP is hit, voiding buy and sell signals. Like moving averages, this indicator can show, in real-time, how a buy or sell signal should be interpreted. A significant AVWAP line is a point of interest, and can serve as strong support or resistance, because large institutions may be using those values for entries or exits. For a great analysis of how to use AVWAP, visit the AlphaTrends channel on Youtube here or you can buy Brian Shannon’s “Anchored VWAP” book on Amazon.
Other Usage Notes and Limitations
It's important for traders to be aware of the limitations of any indicator and to use them as part of a broader, well-rounded trading strategy that includes risk management, fundamental analysis, and other tools that can help with reducing false signals, determining trend direction, and providing additional confirmation for a trade decision. Diversifying strategies and not relying solely on one type of indicator or analysis can help mitigate some of these risks.
Additionally, the indicator may take a little longer to load than usual. On the rare occasion where it fails to load, you may need to remove the indicator and add it back to your chart. Also, if you do encounter this problem, avoid redrawing your chart while the indicator is being added to the screen.
Acknowledgements
This script uses the MarketHolidays library by @Protervus. Also, for debugging, the JavaScript-style Debug Console by @algotraderdev and the TimeFormattingLibrary by @twingall were invaluable. And, of course, without Brian Shannon's books, videos, and interviews, this indicator would would not be possible.
Volume Profile [TFO]This indicator generates Volume Profiles from which to display insights about recent Volume Points of Control and High Volume Nodes. Volume Profile is a way to view trading volume by the price where trades have occurred, rather than the time when they occur (as seen by traditional Volume indicators).
By selecting a Resolution Timeframe (1m in this example), we can aggregate the volume at different prices to build a Volume Profile for a specified Profile Timeframe (1D in this example). In this indicator, we make the simple assumption that a given candle's volume is distributed evenly across all points. Realistically, this is seldom the case, but it gives us a starting point to easily estimate the volume at a given price, in turn helping us to build our profiles in a trivial way.
If we do this for all Resolution Timeframe candles within a Profile Timeframe (all 1m candles in a single 1D candle, in this example), then we can successfully aggregate this data and build a full Volume Profile. And thankfully, Pine Script's new polyline feature ultimately allow us to keep more Volume Profiles on our charts. Before polylines, we would have to consider using lines or boxes to represent the individual levels within a given profile, and each script currently has a cap of 500 lines and boxes, respectively. However, one single polyline can be used to draw the complex shape of an entire profile, and we may show up to 100 polylines in a given script. This helps us keep a lot more data on our charts!
Compared to TradingView's Session Volume Profile indicator (blue/yellow), we can see that our indicator (grey) is nearly identical, which verifies that our assumption of a uniform volume distribution is enough to roughly estimate a given Volume Profile. Note in this example the Row Size was set to 200, meaning that 200 levels are used to approximate profiles from each session's high to its low.
Show VPOC will show the volume point of control of each profile, which represents the price level where the largest amount of volume was traded for a given profile. This is shown with the red lines in the following chart.
Extend Last N VPOCs will look for the most recent, user-defined number of VPOCs (not including the current session's VPOC that's still developing) and extend them to the right of the chart as points of reference. The Show Labels Above option will annotate each VPOC with its respective date above a specified timeframe. This way, if one was using Volume Profiles on intraday timeframes, there wouldn't need to be several date strings all showing the same day.
Show Previous HVNs will show high volume nodes from the previous session. The HVN Strength setting is similar to a "pivot strength" that I use in a lot of my scripts - essentially, HVNs are validated by treating them as local highs. With a HVN Strength of 10 for example, if a given level contains more volume than the 10 levels above and below it, then it is validated as a HVN.
For a cleaner look and feel, HVNs can instead be shown as levels (lines) instead of areas (boxes). With levels enabled, solid lines denote the previous session's VPOC, and dotted lines represent all other HVNs. With areas enabled instead, the tops and bottoms will extend above/below the HVN level until a point with greater volume is discovered (marking the "end" of the node).
This indicator can be computationally intensive and may crash from taking too long to execute. In these cases, it's best to disable unused features, decrease the number of Rows, and/or simply reload the chart until it populates.
ADX and DI (Colored Candles Open-Source)The "ADX and DI (Colored Candles Open-Source)" indicator is a technical analysis tool used in trading. It utilizes the Average Directional Index (ADX) and the Directional Movement Indicators (+DI and -DI) to assess the strength and direction of a price trend. The ADX is calculated based on a 14-period lookback and is displayed as a histogram.
The color of the ADX histogram varies depending on the ADX value and the relative positions of +DI and -DI. Green and purple colors represent bullish and bearish trends respectively, with variations in shades indicating trend strength. Yellow and red colors indicate potential trend exhaustion for bullish and bearish trends, respectively, when ADX is above 50. Gray color is used when ADX is below 10, indicating a neutral trend.
Additionally, the script plots +DI and -DI lines with a fill between them to visually represent their crossover. Horizontal dotted lines are drawn at key ADX levels (0, 10, 25, 50) for reference. The candles on the chart are also colored to match the ADX histogram, providing a clear visual representation of the market trend.
Leveraged Share Decay Tracker [SS]Releasing this utility tool for leveraged share traders and investors.
It is very difficult to track the amount of decay and efficiency that is associated with leveraged shares and since not all leveraged shares are created equally, I developed this tool to help investors/traders ascertain:
1. The general risk, in $$, per share associated with investing in a particular leveraged ETF
2. The ability of a leveraged share to match what it purports to do (i.e. if it is a 3X Bull share, is it actually returning consistently 3X the underlying or is there a large variance?)
3. The general decay at various timepoints expressed in $$$
How to use:
You need to be opened on the chart of the underlying. In the example above, the chart is on DIA, the leveraged share being tracked is UDOW (3X bull share of the DOW).
Once you are on the chart of the underlying, you then put in the leveraged share of interest. The indicator will perform two major assessments:
1. An analysis of the standard error between the underlying and the leveraged share. This is accomplished through linear regression, but instead of creating a linreg equation, it simply uses the results to ascertain the degree of error associated at various time points (the time points are 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 100, 252).
2. An analysis of the variance of returns. The indicator requires you to put in the leverage amount. So if the leverage amount is 3% (i.e. SPXL or UPRO is 3 X SPY), be sure that you are putting that factor in the settings. It will then modify the underlying to match the leverage amount, and perform an assessment of variance over 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 100, 252 days to ensure stability. This will verify whether the leveraged ETF is actually consistently performing how it purports to perform.
Here are some examples, and some tales of caution so you can see, for yourself, how not all leveraged shares are created equal.
SPY and SPXL:
SPY and UPRO:
XBI and LABU (3 x bull share):
XBI and LABD (3 x bear share):
SOX and SOXL:
AAPL and AAPU:
It is VERY pivotal you remember to check and adjust the Leveraged % factor.
For example, AAPU is leveraged 1.5%. You can see above it tracks this well. However, if you accidently leave it at 3%, you will get an erroneous result:
You can also see how some can fail to track the quoted leveraged amount, but still produce relatively lower risk decay.
And, as a final example, let's take a look at the worst leveraged share of life, BOIL:
Trainwreck that one. Stay far away from it!
The chart:
The chart will show you the drift (money value over time) and the variance (% variance between the expected and actual returns) over time. From here, you can ascertain the general length you feel comfortable holding a leveraged share. In general, for most stable shares, <= 50 trading days tends to be the sweet spot, but always check the chart.
There are also options to plot the variances and the drifts so you can see them visually.
And that is the indicator! Kind of boring, but there are absolutely 0 resources out there for doing this job, so hopefully you see the use for it!
Safe trades everyone!
ADX Thrust Reversal & Trend
Created by Love Sharma, CMT, CFTe
the idea is simple. there needs to be thrust in prices before adx goes above any barrier or level say 25/10 or even 10/ The Di plus or Di minus should be above ADX. This indicates the change in direction or change in underlying price and obviously followed by ADX indicator which is dependent on user which level it exceed.
The ADX - Shows Trend Strength
The =/- Di show Thrust or reversal in prices.
it helps in entering the directional change in prices early rather than waiting for ADX
Consolidation FilterDescription:
Consolidation is a technical analysis term used to describe a assets's price movement within a given support and resistance range for a period of time. Consolidations happen either during trending market phases or before a new trend. Consolidation is generally interpreted as market indecisiveness and uncertainty as to which way the market will go next caused due to trader indecisiveness, which ends when the asset's price moves above or below the trading level. A consolidation level could be broken for several reasons, such as the release of materially important news or the triggering of a succession of limit orders.
Markets spend a great amount of time ranging and going sideways. It pays off to know how to identify and trade consolidations because they happen so frequently.
Periods of consolidation can be found in price charts for any time interval, and these periods can last for days, weeks, or months. Technical traders look for support and resistance levels in price charts and then use these levels to make buy and sell decisions. Typically, traders look for certain consolidation patterns: sideways ranges, downward or upward sloping ranges (also called flags), or triangular consolidations (triangles, wedges and pennants).
In contrast, this script offers an alternative, fairly straightforward but effective, way to pinpoint consolidation periods using a forecast oscillator method and simply highlighting relevant regions in the chart (with a yellow background).
In the settings menu you can select one of the three calculation methods, but all of them are based on the forecast oscillator. The indicator settings depend on the asset and on the timeframe. For example for the 2H timeframe BTSUSD preferred settings are period:10/method:2/threshold:0.2, and for the 15M timeframe BTSUSD the settings are period:10/method:2/threshold:0.02. Feel free to experiment with settings to suit your needs.
Stock's Intrinsic Value| DCF modelScript Description
This pine script is based on a YouTube video titled: Warren Buffett: How to Calculate the Intrinsic Value of a Stock. Warren Buffett is a famous value investor who follows the principles of his mentor Benjamin Graham. He looks for companies that have strong competitive advantages, consistent earnings, and low debt. He also considers the intrinsic value of a company, which is the present value of its future cash flows, and compares it to the market price. He prefers to buy stocks that are trading below their intrinsic value and hold them for a long time.
One of the methods that Buffett uses to estimate the intrinsic value of a company is the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. This involves projecting the free cash flow (FCF) of the company for several years and then discounting it back to the present using an appropriate discount rate. The discount rate is usually the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of the company, which reflects its cost of equity and debt. The sum of the discounted FCFs and terminal value is the intrinsic value of the company.
Lastly, a margin of safety is included when using the DCF method for stock valuation because of uncertainty and error in estimating future cash flows and the intrinsic value of the company.
When the current price is below margin of safety, it means that the stock is currently undervalued and being price at significantly below its intrinsic value.
Guideline for determining each variable in this script
FCF growth rate: This is the annual rate at which the free cash flow (FCF) of the company is expected to grow over a forecast 10-year period. You can use historical FCF growth rates, industry averages, analyst estimates, or your assumptions to project the FCF growth rate. The higher the FCF growth rate, the higher the intrinsic value will be.
Discount rate: This is the rate of return that you require to invest in the company. It reflects the risk and opportunity cost of investing in the company. You can use the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of the company, capital pricing model (CAPM), hurdle rate, or market rate as the discount rate. The lower the discount rate, the higher the intrinsic value.
The margin of safety: Provides a cushion against errors in the valuation or adverse events that may affect the company. The margin of safety depends on your personal preference and risk tolerance. Normally is at 15% - 30%, the higher the margin of safety you set, the lower the chance that the stock will hit that level.
How to use this script
Step 1: This script only works for stocks that have financial data of free cash flow and total common shares outstanding
Step 2: Please use a yearly chart (12-month chart)
Step 3: You are required to determine a growth rate that will grow the free cash flow 10 years into the future
Step 4: You are required to determine a discount rate for the calculations
Step 5: You are required to add a margin of safety (Accounting for uncertainty)
Step 6: The rest of the calculations will be done automatically.
Disclaimer when using this script
I'm not a financial advisor
This script is for education purposes only
There are risks involved with stock market investing and investors should not act upon the content or information found here without first seeking advice from an accountant, financial planner, lawyer or other professional.
I can’t guarantee that this script will be error-free as I still consider myself a Pinescript beginner
Before making any decisions, investors should always research companies individually
I'll not be liable for any loss incurred, arising from the use of, or reliance on, this script
Limitations of this script
This script only works on the yearly chart (12 monthly charts)
The intrinsic value of a company will be negative if the company have a negative forecasted free cash flow
You need to make an educated guess about the growth rate, discount rate and margin of safety
This script uses free cash flow instead of owner's earnings (Operating cash flow - Maintenance capital expenditure), therefore it can't accurately estimate the maintenance capital expenditure.
Need at least 6 years’ worth of financial data
Market capitalisation uses total common shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price instead of using company-level total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing price
FlexiMA Variance Tracker - Strategy [presentTrading]█ Introduction and How It Is Different
The FlexiMA Variance Tracker by PresentTrading introduces a novel approach to technical trading strategies. Unlike traditional methods, it calculates deviations between a chosen indicator source (such as price or average) and a moving average with a variable length. This flexibility is achieved through a unique combination of a starting factor and an increment factor, allowing the moving average to adapt dynamically within a specified range. This strategy provides a more responsive and nuanced view of market trends, setting it apart from standard trading methodologies.
BTC 8h L/S
Local
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The FlexiMA Variance Tracker, developed by PresentTrading, stands at the forefront of trading strategies, distinguished by its adaptive and multifaceted approach to market analysis. This strategy intricately weaves various technical elements to construct a comprehensive trading logic. Here's an in-depth professional breakdown:
🔶Foundation on Variable-Length Moving Averages:
Central to this strategy is the concept of variable-length Moving Averages (MAs). Unlike traditional MAs with a fixed period, this strategy dynamically adjusts the length of the MA based on a starting factor and an incremental factor. This approach allows the strategy to adapt to market volatility and trend strength more effectively.
Each MA iteration offers a distinct temporal perspective, capturing short-term price movements to long-term trends. This aggregation of various time frames provides a richer and more nuanced market analysis, essential for making informed trading decisions.
🔶Deviation Analysis and Normalization:
The strategy calculates deviations of the price (or the chosen indicator source) from each of these MAs. These deviations are pivotal in identifying the immediate market direction relative to the average trend captured by each MA.
To standardize these deviations for comparability, they undergo a normalization process. The choice of normalization method (Max-Min or Absolute Sum) can significantly influence the interpretation of market conditions, offering distinct insights into price movements and trend strength.
🔹Normalization: Absolute Sum
🔶Composite Oscillator Construction:
A composite oscillator is derived from the median of these normalized deviations. The median serves as a balanced and robust central trend indicator, minimizing the impact of outliers and market noise.
Additionally, the standard deviation of these deviations is computed, providing a measure of market volatility. This volatility indicator is crucial for assessing market risk and can guide traders in setting appropriate stop-loss and take-profit levels.
🔶Integration with SuperTrend Indicator:
The FlexiMA strategy integrates the SuperTrend indicator, renowned for its effectiveness in identifying trend direction and reversals. The SuperTrend's incorporation enhances the strategy's ability to filter out false signals and confirm genuine market trends.
* The SuperTrend Toolkit is made by @QuantiLuxe
This combination of the variable-length MA oscillator with the SuperTrend indicator forms a potent duo, offering traders a dual-confirmation mechanism for trade signals.
🔹Supertrend's incorporation
🔶Strategic Trade Signal Generation:
Trade signals are generated when there is a confluence between the composite oscillator and the SuperTrend indicator. For example, a long position signal might be considered when the oscillator suggests an uptrend, and the SuperTrend flips to bullish.
The strategy's parameters are fully customizable, enabling traders to tailor the signal generation process to their specific trading style, risk tolerance, and market conditions.
█ Usage
To effectively employ the FlexiMA Variance Tracker strategy:
Traders should set their desired trade direction and fine-tune the starting and increment factors according to their market analysis and risk tolerance.
Indicator Length: 5
Indicator Length: 40
The strategy is suitable for a wide range of markets and can be adapted to different time frames, making it a versatile tool for various trading scenarios.
█ Default Settings Impact on Performance: FlexiMA Variance Tracker
1. Trade Direction (Configurable: Long, Short, Both): Determines trade types. 'Long' for buying, 'Short' for selling, 'Both' adapts to market trends.
2. Indicator Source: HLC3: Balances market sentiment by considering high, low, and close, providing comprehensive period analysis.
4. Indicator Length (Default: 10): Baseline for moving averages. Shorter lengths increase responsiveness but add noise, while longer lengths favor trends.
5. Starting and Increment Factor (Default: 1.0): Adjusts MA lengths range. Higher values capture broad market dynamics, lower values focus analysis.
6. Normalization Method (Options: None, Max-Min, Absolute Sum): Standardizes deviations. 'None' for raw deviations, 'Max-Min' for relative scaling, 'Absolute Sum' emphasizes relative strength.
7. SuperTrend Settings (ATR Length: 10, Multiplier: 15.0): Influences indicator sensitivity. Short ATR or high multiplier for short-term, long ATR or low multiplier for long-term trends.
8. Additional Settings (Mesh Style, Color Customization): Enhances visual clarity. Mesh style for detailed deviation view, colors for quick market condition identification.
Logarithmic Volatility Direction Index [IkkeOmar]The LVDI is a Mean-Reversion Indicator. it doesn't detect trends and does not give a signal per se.
What it does is tell you if we have a flashcrash based on the price action and volume that is available. It is not always easy to see with the naked eye, so this indicator can help you DCA into an asset in a smarter way, if you couple it with other trend systems.
Think of this indicator like a form of a volatility index.
Inputs:
len and lenWMA are integers representing different lengths for calculations, and src is the data source
Keep in mind that "Length" is the lookback for the WMA, and the Length smooting is the lookback for the SMA of the "volume_weighted".
WMA Calculation
wma_basic = math.log10(ta.wma(src, len))
This calculates the logarithm (base 10) of the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) of the source data over len periods. WMA is a type of moving average giving more importance to recent data. The reason I use log10, is to make it transformative over a longer timeframe. This makes it easier to see the growth direction. I like to use this for crypto, since there is asymetric upside.
Volume Filter:
average_volume = ta.sma(volume, lenWMA)
volume_weighted = math.log10(wma_basic * (volume / math.log10(average_volume)))
Here, the script first calculates the Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the trading volume over lenWMA periods. Then, it computes a volume-weighted value of the WMA, adjusted by the logarithmic ratio of current volume to average volume.
Distance and Score Calculation:
distance = math.log10(src) - math.log10(volume_weighted)
score = math.sign(distance) * math.pow(math.abs(distance), 2)
The script calculates the logarithmic difference between the source data and the volume-weighted WMA. The score is determined by the sign of this distance multiplied by its square. This potentially amplifies the impact of larger distances.
Plotting:
plot(volume_weighted, title="Volume Weighted WMA", color=color.blue, linewidth = 2)
plot(ta.sma(volume_weighted, lenWMA), title="Volume Weighted WMA", color=color.rgb(189, 160, 0))
Mathematical concepts
Weighted Moving Average (WMA):
WMA is a moving average that assigns more weight to recent data points. The idea is that recent prices are more relevant to the current trend than older prices.
Logarithms:
The use of log10 (logarithm base 10) is interesting. Logarithms help in normalizing data and can make certain patterns more visible, especially when dealing with exponential growth or decay.
Volume Weighting:
Multiplying the WMA by the ratio of current volume to average volume (both logarithmic) integrates volume into the analysis. High trading volume can signify stronger market interest and can thus validate price movements.
Distance and Score:
The distance measures how far the current price is from the volume-weighted WMA on a logarithmic scale. The score squares this distance, potentially highlighting large divergences.
Case example
In the case above (which is a low timeframe that shouldn't be your main system) we see the blue line going up before going below the moving average line (orange). This indicates a local bottom zone. Does that mean that we wont go lower? No! What you can do is calculate a zone range.
We have an average line, you can get that from the POC with the VRVP.
Then you take the low and high of that zone and take the average:
(3.17% + 2.33%) / 2 = 2.75%
This means that we expect that the price can fall an additional 2.75%! Low and behold. When you check the same chart as above:
Hope it makes sense!
Stay safe everyone!
Don't hesitate to ask any questions if you have any!
Price-Action CandlesWhat is a swing high or swing low?
Swing highs and lows are price extremes. For example say we set our swing length to 5. A candle that is a swing high with a swing length of 5 will have 5 bars to the left that are lower and 5 bars to the right that are lower. A candle that is a swing low with a swing length of 5 will have 5 bars to the left that are higher and 5 bars to the right that are higher.
How are the trend candles calculated?
The trend candles are calculated by storing and comparing historical swing lows and swing highs.
The pinescript code goes as follows:
The pinescript code goes as follows:
var int trend = na
trend := ((hh and high >= psh) or close > csh) ? 1 : ((ll and low <= psl) or close < csl) ? -1 : lh or hl ? 0 : trend
What does that gibberish mean?
-Candle can be GREEN IF
- We have a higher high (current swing high is greater than the previous swing high) and the high is greater than the previous swing high
- OR The current close is greater than the current swing high
-Candle can be RED IF
- We have a lower low (current swing low is less than the previous swing low) and the low is less than the previous swing low
- OR The current close is less than the current swing low
-Candle can be YELLOW IF
- We have a new swing high and the new swing high is less than the previous swing high
- OR We have a new swing low and the new swing low is greater than the previous swing low
If none of the conditions above are true then we continue with whatever color the previous bar was.
What is repainting?
Repainting is "script behavior causing historical vs realtime calculations or plots to behave differently." That definition comes directly from Tradingview. If you want to read the full explanation you can visit it here www.tradingview.com . The price-action candles use swing highs and swing lows which need bars to the left (past) and bars to the right ("future") in order to confirm the swing level. Because of the need to wait for confirmation to for swing levels the plot style can be repainting. With the price-action candles indicator the only repainting part of the indicator is the labels. The price-action candles themselves WILL NOT REPAINT. The labels however can be set to repaint or not depending on the user preference. If the user opts to use repainting then the label location is shifted back by the length of the price-action. So if the "Price-Action Length" input is set to 10, and the user wants repainting, the swing high/low label will be shifted back 10 bars. If the user opts for no repainting, the label will not be shifted and instead show on the exact bar the swing level was confirmed.
Examples Below.
Repaint
Here the labels are shifted back the price-action length.
Non-Repaint
Here the labels are not shifted back because the input setting is set to not repaint.
Multi-timeframe Analysis
The users can view the trend from multiple different timeframes at once with a table displayed at the bottom of their charts. The timeframe can be lower or higher than the chart timeframe.
More examples
Be on the lookout for the Price Action Candles (Lower) indicator where you can view the multi-timeframe labels on a lower price grid in order to see the history over time!
simple pull back TJlv26This is a very simple strategy for swing trade in stock indexes.
this strategy only trade long position, recommend to use this in day chart of sp500 or nas100.
SPX
NDX
Buy condition:
close price above long term SMA(default period 200),close price under short term SMA(default period 10), RSI is under 30(default period 3)
Sell condition:
1:if close price is above short period SMA and current close price is lower than low price of previous bar
2:hit the take profit target(default value 10%)
3:hit the stop loss target(default value 5%)
from author:
As you can see, it's a very simple logic. You only start trading when the price is above long-term moving average, so you can avoid risk by taking positions only in the uptrend. You also use stop-loss, so even in situations where there is a significant downturn, you can minimize losses.
However, it's important to note that this strategy performs well only in markets where long-term (approximately 10 years) upward movements are expected. It often yields disappointing results during prolonged bear markets. This is where each user's fundamental analysis comes into play, as there is no such thing as a perfect trading logic.
Another noteworthy point is that, as seen in the results of back testing, this strategy tends to underperform buy-and-hold in most cases. As mentioned earlier, it's a strategy focused on risk mitigation and starting trades at the most advantageous prices, so I believe that using leverage of 2-4 times can maximize profits. However, trading with leverage is highly risky, so it should be assessed based on each individual's risk tolerance.
Supertrend Advance Pullback StrategyHandbook for the Supertrend Advance Strategy
1. Introduction
Purpose of the Handbook:
The main purpose of this handbook is to serve as a comprehensive guide for traders and investors who are looking to explore and harness the potential of the Supertrend Advance Strategy. In the rapidly changing financial market, having the right tools and strategies at one's disposal is crucial. Whether you're a beginner hoping to dive into the world of trading or a seasoned investor aiming to optimize and diversify your portfolio, this handbook offers the insights and methodologies you need. By the end of this guide, readers should have a clear understanding of how the Supertrend Advance Strategy works, its benefits, potential pitfalls, and practical application in various trading scenarios.
Overview of the Supertrend Advance Pullback Strategy:
At its core, the Supertrend Advance Strategy is an evolution of the popular Supertrend Indicator. Designed to generate buy and sell signals in trending markets, the Supertrend Indicator has been a favorite tool for many traders around the world. The Advance Strategy, however, builds upon this foundation by introducing enhanced mechanisms, filters, and methodologies to increase precision and reduce false signals.
1. Basic Concept:
The Supertrend Advance Strategy relies on a combination of price action and volatility to determine the potential trend direction. By assessing the average true range (ATR) in conjunction with specific price points, this strategy aims to highlight the potential starting and ending points of market trends.
2. Methodology:
Unlike the traditional Supertrend Indicator, which primarily focuses on closing prices and ATR, the Advance Strategy integrates other critical market variables, such as volume, momentum oscillators, and perhaps even fundamental data, to validate its signals. This multidimensional approach ensures that the generated signals are more reliable and are less prone to market noise.
3. Benefits:
One of the main benefits of the Supertrend Advance Strategy is its ability to filter out false breakouts and minor price fluctuations, which can often lead to premature exits or entries in the market. By waiting for a confluence of factors to align, traders using this advanced strategy can increase their chances of entering or exiting trades at optimal points.
4. Practical Applications:
The Supertrend Advance Strategy can be applied across various timeframes, from intraday trading to swing trading and even long-term investment scenarios. Furthermore, its flexible nature allows it to be tailored to different asset classes, be it stocks, commodities, forex, or cryptocurrencies.
In the subsequent sections of this handbook, we will delve deeper into the intricacies of this strategy, offering step-by-step guidelines on its application, case studies, and tips for maximizing its efficacy in the volatile world of trading.
As you journey through this handbook, we encourage you to approach the Supertrend Advance Strategy with an open mind, testing and tweaking it as per your personal trading style and risk appetite. The ultimate goal is not just to provide you with a new tool but to empower you with a holistic strategy that can enhance your trading endeavors.
2. Getting Started
Navigating the financial markets can be a daunting task without the right tools. This section is dedicated to helping you set up the Supertrend Advance Strategy on one of the most popular charting platforms, TradingView. By following the steps below, you'll be able to integrate this strategy into your charts and start leveraging its insights in no time.
Setting up on TradingView:
TradingView is a web-based platform that offers a wide range of charting tools, social networking, and market data. Before you can apply the Supertrend Advance Strategy, you'll first need a TradingView account. If you haven't set one up yet, here's how:
1. Account Creation:
• Visit TradingView's official website.
• Click on the "Join for free" or "Sign up" button.
• Follow the registration process, providing the necessary details and setting up your login credentials.
2. Navigating the Dashboard:
• Once logged in, you'll be taken to your dashboard. Here, you'll see a variety of tools, including watchlists, alerts, and the main charting window.
• To begin charting, type in the name or ticker of the asset you're interested in the search bar at the top.
3. Configuring Chart Settings:
• Before integrating the Supertrend Advance Strategy, familiarize yourself with the chart settings. This can be accessed by clicking the 'gear' icon on the top right of the chart window.
• Adjust the chart type, time intervals, and other display settings to your preference.
Integrating the Strategy into a Chart:
Now that you're set up on TradingView, it's time to integrate the Supertrend Advance Strategy.
1. Accessing the Pine Script Editor:
• Located at the top-center of your screen, you'll find the "Pine Editor" tab. Click on it.
• This is where custom strategies and indicators are scripted or imported.
2. Loading the Supertrend Advance Strategy Script:
• Depending on whether you have the script or need to find it, there are two paths:
• If you have the script: Copy the Supertrend Advance Strategy script, and then paste it into the Pine Editor.
• If searching for the script: Click on the “Indicators” icon (looks like a flame) at the top of your screen, and then type “Supertrend Advance Strategy” in the search bar. If available, it will show up in the list. Simply click to add it to your chart.
3. Applying the Strategy:
• After pasting or selecting the Supertrend Advance Strategy in the Pine Editor, click on the “Add to Chart” button located at the top of the editor. This will overlay the strategy onto your main chart window.
4. Configuring Strategy Settings:
• Once the strategy is on your chart, you'll notice a small settings ('gear') icon next to its name in the top-left of the chart window. Click on this to access settings.
• Here, you can adjust various parameters of the Supertrend Advance Strategy to better fit your trading style or the specific asset you're analyzing.
5. Interpreting Signals:
• With the strategy applied, you'll now see buy/sell signals represented on your chart. Take time to familiarize yourself with how these look and behave over various timeframes and market conditions.
3. Strategy Overview
What is the Supertrend Advance Strategy?
The Supertrend Advance Strategy is a refined version of the classic Supertrend Indicator, which was developed to aid traders in spotting market trends. The strategy utilizes a combination of data points, including average true range (ATR) and price momentum, to generate buy and sell signals.
In essence, the Supertrend Advance Strategy can be visualized as a line that moves with the price. When the price is above the Supertrend line, it indicates an uptrend and suggests a potential buy position. Conversely, when the price is below the Supertrend line, it hints at a downtrend, suggesting a potential selling point.
Strategy Goals and Objectives:
1. Trend Identification: At the core of the Supertrend Advance Strategy is the goal to efficiently and consistently identify prevailing market trends. By recognizing these trends, traders can position themselves to capitalize on price movements in their favor.
2. Reducing Noise: Financial markets are often inundated with 'noise' - short-term price fluctuations that can mislead traders. The Supertrend Advance Strategy aims to filter out this noise, allowing for clearer decision-making.
3. Enhancing Risk Management: With clear buy and sell signals, traders can set more precise stop-loss and take-profit points. This leads to better risk management and potentially improved profitability.
4. Versatility: While primarily used for trend identification, the strategy can be integrated with other technical tools and indicators to create a comprehensive trading system.
Type of Assets/Markets to Apply the Strategy:
1. Equities: The Supertrend Advance Strategy is highly popular among stock traders. Its ability to capture long-term trends makes it particularly useful for those trading individual stocks or equity indices.
2. Forex: Given the 24-hour nature of the Forex market and its propensity for trends, the Supertrend Advance Strategy is a valuable tool for currency traders.
3. Commodities: Whether it's gold, oil, or agricultural products, commodities often move in extended trends. The strategy can help in identifying and capitalizing on these movements.
4. Cryptocurrencies: The volatile nature of cryptocurrencies means they can have pronounced trends. The Supertrend Advance Strategy can aid crypto traders in navigating these often tumultuous waters.
5. Futures & Options: Traders and investors in derivative markets can utilize the strategy to make more informed decisions about contract entries and exits.
It's important to note that while the Supertrend Advance Strategy can be applied across various assets and markets, its effectiveness might vary based on market conditions, timeframe, and the specific characteristics of the asset in question. As always, it's recommended to use the strategy in conjunction with other analytical tools and to backtest its effectiveness in specific scenarios before committing to trades.
4. Input Settings
Understanding and correctly configuring input settings is crucial for optimizing the Supertrend Advance Strategy for any specific market or asset. These settings, when tweaked correctly, can drastically impact the strategy's performance.
Grouping Inputs:
Before diving into individual input settings, it's important to group similar inputs. Grouping can simplify the user interface, making it easier to adjust settings related to a specific function or indicator.
Strategy Choice:
This input allows traders to select from various strategies that incorporate the Supertrend indicator. Options might include "Supertrend with RSI," "Supertrend with MACD," etc. By choosing a strategy, the associated input settings for that strategy become available.
Supertrend Settings:
1. Multiplier: Typically, a default value of 3 is used. This multiplier is used in the ATR calculation. Increasing it makes the Supertrend line further from prices, while decreasing it brings the line closer.
2. Period: The number of bars used in the ATR calculation. A common default is 7.
EMA Settings (Exponential Moving Average):
1. Period: Defines the number of previous bars used to calculate the EMA. Common periods are 9, 21, 50, and 200.
2. Source: Allows traders to choose which price (Open, Close, High, Low) to use in the EMA calculation.
RSI Settings (Relative Strength Index):
1. Length: Determines how many periods are used for RSI calculation. The standard setting is 14.
2. Overbought Level: The threshold at which the asset is considered overbought, typically set at 70.
3. Oversold Level: The threshold at which the asset is considered oversold, often at 30.
MACD Settings (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
1. Short Period: The shorter EMA, usually set to 12.
2. Long Period: The longer EMA, commonly set to 26.
3. Signal Period: Defines the EMA of the MACD line, typically set at 9.
CCI Settings (Commodity Channel Index):
1. Period: The number of bars used in the CCI calculation, often set to 20.
2. Overbought Level: Typically set at +100, denoting overbought conditions.
3. Oversold Level: Usually set at -100, indicating oversold conditions.
SL/TP Settings (Stop Loss/Take Profit):
1. SL Multiplier: Defines the multiplier for the average true range (ATR) to set the stop loss.
2. TP Multiplier: Defines the multiplier for the average true range (ATR) to set the take profit.
Filtering Conditions:
This section allows traders to set conditions to filter out certain signals. For example, one might only want to take buy signals when the RSI is below 30, ensuring they buy during oversold conditions.
Trade Direction and Backtest Period:
1. Trade Direction: Allows traders to specify whether they want to take long trades, short trades, or both.
2. Backtest Period: Specifies the time range for backtesting the strategy. Traders can choose from options like 'Last 6 months,' 'Last 1 year,' etc.
It's essential to remember that while default settings are provided for many of these tools, optimal settings can vary based on the market, timeframe, and trading style. Always backtest new settings on historical data to gauge their potential efficacy.
5. Understanding Strategy Conditions
Developing an understanding of the conditions set within a trading strategy is essential for traders to maximize its potential. Here, we delve deep into the logic behind these conditions, using the Supertrend Advance Strategy as our focal point.
Basic Logic Behind Conditions:
Every strategy is built around a set of conditions that provide buy or sell signals. The conditions are based on mathematical or statistical methods and are rooted in the study of historical price data. The fundamental idea is to recognize patterns or behaviors that have been profitable in the past and might be profitable in the future.
Buy and Sell Conditions:
1. Buy Conditions: Usually formulated around bullish signals or indicators suggesting upward price momentum.
2. Sell Conditions: Centered on bearish signals or indicators indicating downward price momentum.
Simple Strategy:
The simple strategy could involve using just the Supertrend indicator. Here:
• Buy: When price closes above the Supertrend line.
• Sell: When price closes below the Supertrend line.
Pullback Strategy:
This strategy capitalizes on price retracements:
• Buy: When the price retraces to the Supertrend line after a bullish signal and is supported by another bullish indicator.
• Sell: When the price retraces to the Supertrend line after a bearish signal and is confirmed by another bearish indicator.
Indicators Used:
EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
• Logic: EMA gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to current price movements. A shorter-period EMA crossing above a longer-period EMA can be a bullish sign, while the opposite is bearish.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
• Logic: RSI measures the magnitude of recent price changes to analyze overbought or oversold conditions. Values above 70 are typically considered overbought, and values below 30 are considered oversold.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
• Logic: MACD assesses the relationship between two EMAs of a security’s price. The MACD line crossing above the signal line can be a bullish signal, while crossing below can be bearish.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index):
• Logic: CCI compares a security's average price change with its average price variation. A CCI value above +100 may mean the price is overbought, while below -100 might signify an oversold condition.
And others...
As the strategy expands or contracts, more indicators might be added or removed. The crucial point is to understand the core logic behind each, ensuring they align with the strategy's objectives.
Logic Behind Each Indicator:
1. EMA: Emphasizes recent price movements; provides dynamic support and resistance levels.
2. RSI: Indicates overbought and oversold conditions based on recent price changes.
3. MACD: Showcases momentum and direction of a trend by comparing two EMAs.
4. CCI: Measures the difference between a security's price change and its average price change.
Understanding strategy conditions is not just about knowing when to buy or sell but also about comprehending the underlying market dynamics that those conditions represent. As you familiarize yourself with each condition and indicator, you'll be better prepared to adapt and evolve with the ever-changing financial markets.
6. Trade Execution and Management
Trade execution and management are crucial aspects of any trading strategy. Efficient execution can significantly impact profitability, while effective management can preserve capital during adverse market conditions. In this section, we'll explore the nuances of position entry, exit strategies, and various Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) methodologies within the Supertrend Advance Strategy.
Position Entry:
Effective trade entry revolves around:
1. Timing: Enter at a point where the risk-reward ratio is favorable. This often corresponds to confirmatory signals from multiple indicators.
2. Volume Analysis: Ensure there's adequate volume to support the movement. Volume can validate the strength of a signal.
3. Confirmation: Use multiple indicators or chart patterns to confirm the entry point. For instance, a buy signal from the Supertrend indicator can be confirmed with a bullish MACD crossover.
Position Exit Strategies:
A successful exit strategy will lock in profits and minimize losses. Here are some strategies:
1. Fixed Time Exit: Exiting after a predetermined period.
2. Percentage-based Profit Target: Exiting after a certain percentage gain.
3. Indicator-based Exit: Exiting when an indicator gives an opposing signal.
Percentage-based SL/TP:
• Stop Loss (SL): Set a fixed percentage below the entry price to limit potential losses.
• Example: A 2% SL on an entry at $100 would trigger a sell at $98.
• Take Profit (TP): Set a fixed percentage above the entry price to lock in gains.
• Example: A 5% TP on an entry at $100 would trigger a sell at $105.
Supertrend-based SL/TP:
• Stop Loss (SL): Position the SL at the Supertrend line. If the price breaches this line, it could indicate a trend reversal.
• Take Profit (TP): One could set the TP at a point where the Supertrend line flattens or turns, indicating a possible slowdown in momentum.
Swing high/low-based SL/TP:
• Stop Loss (SL): For a long position, set the SL just below the recent swing low. For a short position, set it just above the recent swing high.
• Take Profit (TP): For a long position, set the TP near a recent swing high or resistance. For a short position, near a swing low or support.
And other methods...
1. Trailing Stop Loss: This dynamic SL adjusts with the price movement, locking in profits as the trade moves in your favor.
2. Multiple Take Profits: Divide the position into segments and set multiple TP levels, securing profits in stages.
3. Opposite Signal Exit: Exit when another reliable indicator gives an opposite signal.
Trade execution and management are as much an art as they are a science. They require a blend of analytical skill, discipline, and intuition. Regularly reviewing and refining your strategies, especially in light of changing market conditions, is crucial to maintaining consistent trading performance.
7. Visual Representations
Visual tools are essential for traders, as they simplify complex data into an easily interpretable format. Properly analyzing and understanding the plots on a chart can provide actionable insights and a more intuitive grasp of market conditions. In this section, we’ll delve into various visual representations used in the Supertrend Advance Strategy and their significance.
Understanding Plots on the Chart:
Charts are the primary visual aids for traders. The arrangement of data points, lines, and colors on them tell a story about the market's past, present, and potential future moves.
1. Data Points: These represent individual price actions over a specific timeframe. For instance, a daily chart will have data points showing the opening, closing, high, and low prices for each day.
2. Colors: Used to indicate the nature of price movement. Commonly, green is used for bullish (upward) moves and red for bearish (downward) moves.
Trend Lines:
Trend lines are straight lines drawn on a chart that connect a series of price points. Their significance:
1. Uptrend Line: Drawn along the lows, representing support. A break below might indicate a trend reversal.
2. Downtrend Line: Drawn along the highs, indicating resistance. A break above might suggest the start of a bullish trend.
Filled Areas:
These represent a range between two values on a chart, usually shaded or colored. For instance:
1. Bollinger Bands: The area between the upper and lower band is filled, giving a visual representation of volatility.
2. Volume Profile: Can show a filled area representing the amount of trading activity at different price levels.
Stop Loss and Take Profit Lines:
These are horizontal lines representing pre-determined exit points for trades.
1. Stop Loss Line: Indicates the level at which a trade will be automatically closed to limit losses. Positioned according to the trader's risk tolerance.
2. Take Profit Line: Denotes the target level to lock in profits. Set according to potential resistance (for long trades) or support (for short trades) or other technical factors.
Trailing Stop Lines:
A trailing stop is a dynamic form of stop loss that moves with the price. On a chart:
1. For Long Trades: Starts below the entry price and moves up with the price but remains static if the price falls, ensuring profits are locked in.
2. For Short Trades: Starts above the entry price and moves down with the price but remains static if the price rises.
Visual representations offer traders a clear, organized view of market dynamics. Familiarity with these tools ensures that traders can quickly and accurately interpret chart data, leading to more informed decision-making. Always ensure that the visual aids used resonate with your trading style and strategy for the best results.
8. Backtesting
Backtesting is a fundamental process in strategy development, enabling traders to evaluate the efficacy of their strategy using historical data. It provides a snapshot of how the strategy would have performed in past market conditions, offering insights into its potential strengths and vulnerabilities. In this section, we'll explore the intricacies of setting up and analyzing backtest results and the caveats one must be aware of.
Setting Up Backtest Period:
1. Duration: Determine the timeframe for the backtest. It should be long enough to capture various market conditions (bullish, bearish, sideways). For instance, if you're testing a daily strategy, consider a period of several years.
2. Data Quality: Ensure the data source is reliable, offering high-resolution and clean data. This is vital to get accurate backtest results.
3. Segmentation: Instead of a continuous period, sometimes it's helpful to backtest over distinct market phases, like a particular bear or bull market, to see how the strategy holds up in different environments.
Analyzing Backtest Results:
1. Performance Metrics: Examine metrics like the total return, annualized return, maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, and others to gauge the strategy's efficiency.
2. Win Rate: It's the ratio of winning trades to total trades. A high win rate doesn't always signify a good strategy; it should be evaluated in conjunction with other metrics.
3. Risk/Reward: Understand the average profit versus the average loss per trade. A strategy might have a low win rate but still be profitable if the average gain far exceeds the average loss.
4. Drawdown Analysis: Review the periods of losses the strategy could incur and how long it takes, on average, to recover.
9. Tips and Best Practices
Successful trading requires more than just knowing how a strategy works. It necessitates an understanding of when to apply it, how to adjust it to varying market conditions, and the wisdom to recognize and avoid common pitfalls. This section offers insightful tips and best practices to enhance the application of the Supertrend Advance Strategy.
When to Use the Strategy:
1. Market Conditions: Ideally, employ the Supertrend Advance Strategy during trending market conditions. This strategy thrives when there are clear upward or downward trends. It might be less effective during consolidative or sideways markets.
2. News Events: Be cautious around significant news events, as they can cause extreme volatility. It might be wise to avoid trading immediately before and after high-impact news.
3. Liquidity: Ensure you are trading in assets/markets with sufficient liquidity. High liquidity ensures that the price movements are more reflective of genuine market sentiment and not due to thin volume.
Adjusting Settings for Different Markets/Timeframes:
1. Markets: Each market (stocks, forex, commodities) has its own characteristics. It's essential to adjust the strategy's parameters to align with the market's volatility and liquidity.
2. Timeframes: Shorter timeframes (like 1-minute or 5-minute charts) tend to have more noise. You might need to adjust the settings to filter out false signals. Conversely, for longer timeframes (like daily or weekly charts), you might need to be more responsive to genuine trend changes.
3. Customization: Regularly review and tweak the strategy's settings. Periodic adjustments can ensure the strategy remains optimized for the current market conditions.
10. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Given the complexities and nuances of the Supertrend Advance Strategy, it's only natural for traders, both new and seasoned, to have questions. This section addresses some of the most commonly asked questions regarding the strategy.
1. What exactly is the Supertrend Advance Strategy?
The Supertrend Advance Strategy is an evolved version of the traditional Supertrend indicator. It's designed to provide clearer buy and sell signals by incorporating additional indicators like EMA, RSI, MACD, CCI, etc. The strategy aims to capitalize on market trends while minimizing false signals.
2. Can I use the Supertrend Advance Strategy for all asset types?
Yes, the strategy can be applied to various asset types like stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. However, it's crucial to adjust the settings accordingly to suit the specific characteristics and volatility of each asset type.
3. Is this strategy suitable for day trading?
Absolutely! The Supertrend Advance Strategy can be adjusted to suit various timeframes, making it versatile for both day trading and long-term trading. Remember to fine-tune the settings to align with the timeframe you're trading on.
4. How do I deal with false signals?
No strategy is immune to false signals. However, by combining the Supertrend with other indicators and adhering to strict risk management protocols, you can minimize the impact of false signals. Always use stop-loss orders and consider filtering trades with additional confirmation signals.
5. Do I need any prior trading experience to use this strategy?
While the Supertrend Advance Strategy is designed to be user-friendly, having a foundational understanding of trading and market analysis can greatly enhance your ability to employ the strategy effectively. If you're a beginner, consider pairing the strategy with further education and practice on demo accounts.
6. How often should I review and adjust the strategy settings?
There's no one-size-fits-all answer. Some traders adjust settings weekly, while others might do it monthly. The key is to remain responsive to changing market conditions. Regular backtesting can give insights into potential required adjustments.
7. Can the Supertrend Advance Strategy be automated?
Yes, many traders use algorithmic trading platforms to automate their strategies, including the Supertrend Advance Strategy. However, always monitor automated systems regularly to ensure they're operating as intended.
8. Are there any markets or conditions where the strategy shouldn't be used?
The strategy might generate more false signals in markets that are consolidative or range-bound. During significant news events or times of unexpected high volatility, it's advisable to tread with caution or stay out of the market.
9. How important is backtesting with this strategy?
Backtesting is crucial as it allows traders to understand how the strategy would have performed in the past, offering insights into potential profitability and areas of improvement. Always backtest any new setting or tweak before applying it to live trades.
10. What if the strategy isn't working for me?
No strategy guarantees consistent profits. If it's not working for you, consider reviewing your settings, seeking expert advice, or complementing the Supertrend Advance Strategy with other analysis methods. Remember, continuous learning and adaptation are the keys to trading success.
Other comments
Value of combining several indicators in this script and how they work together
Diversification of Signals: Just as diversifying an investment portfolio can reduce risk, using multiple indicators can offer varied perspectives on potential price movements. Each indicator can capture a different facet of the market, ensuring that traders are not overly reliant on a single data point.
Confirmation & Reduced False Signals: A common challenge with many indicators is the potential for false signals. By requiring confirmation from multiple indicators before acting, the chances of acting on a false signal can be significantly reduced.
Flexibility Across Market Conditions: Different indicators might perform better under different market conditions. For example, while moving averages might excel in trending markets, oscillators like RSI might be more useful during sideways or range-bound conditions. A mashup strategy can potentially adapt better to varying market scenarios.
Comprehensive Analysis: With multiple indicators, traders can gauge trend strength, momentum, volatility, and potential market reversals all at once, providing a holistic view of the market.
How do the different indicators in the Supertrend Advance Strategy work together?
Supertrend: This is primarily a trend-following indicator. It provides traders with buy and sell signals based on the volatility of the price. When combined with other indicators, it can filter out noise and give more weight to strong, confirmed trends.
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): EMA gives more weight to recent price data. It can be used to identify the direction and strength of a trend. When the price is above the EMA, it's generally considered bullish, and vice versa.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): An oscillator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. By cross-referencing with other indicators like EMA or MACD, traders can spot potential reversals or confirmations of a trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): This indicator identifies changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock's price. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it can be a bullish sign, and when it crosses below, it can be bearish. Pairing MACD with Supertrend can provide dual confirmation of a trend.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index): Initially developed for commodities, CCI can indicate overbought or oversold conditions. It can be used in conjunction with other indicators to determine entry and exit points.
In essence, the synergy of these indicators provides a balanced, comprehensive approach to trading. Each indicator offers its unique lens into market conditions, and when they align, it can be a powerful indication of a trading opportunity. This combination not only reduces the potential drawbacks of each individual indicator but leverages their strengths, aiming for more consistent and informed trading decisions.
Backtesting and Default Settings
• This indicator has been optimized to be applied for 1 hour-charts. However, the underlying principles of this strategy are supply and demand in the financial markets and the strategy can be applied to all timeframes. Daytraders can use the 1min- or 5min charts, swing-traders can use the daily charts.
• This strategy has been designed to identify the most promising, highest probability entries and trades for each stock or other financial security.
• The combination of the qualifiers results in a highly selective strategy which only considers the most promising swing-trading entries. As a result, you will normally only find a low number of trades for each stock or other financial security per year in case you apply this strategy for the daily charts. Shorter timeframes will result in a higher number of trades / year.
• Consequently, traders need to apply this strategy for a full watchlist rather than just one financial security.
• Default properties: RSI on (length 14, RSI buy level 50, sell level 50), EMA, RSI, MACD on, type of strategy pullback, SL/TP type: ATR (length 10, factor 3), trade direction both, quantity 5, take profit swing hl 5.1, highest / lowest lookback 2, enable ATR trail (ATR length 10, SL ATR multiplier 1.4, TP multiplier 2.1, lookback = 4, trade direction = both).
Captain Backtest Model [TFO]Created by @imjesstwoone and @mickey1984, this trade model attempts to capture the expansion from the 10:00-14:00 EST 4h candle using just 3 simple steps. All of the information presented in this description has been outlined by its creators, all I did was translate it to Pine Script. All core settings of the trade model may be edited so that users can test several variations, however this description will cover its default, intended behavior using NQ 5m as an example.
Step 1 is to identify our Price Range. In this case, we are concerned with the highest high and the lowest low created from 6:00-10:00 EST.
Step 2 is to wait for either the high or low of said range to be taken out. Whichever side gets taken first determines the long/short bias for the remainder of the Trade Window (i.e. if price takes the range high, bias is long, and vice versa). Bias must be determined by 11:15 EST, otherwise no trades will be taken. This filter is intended to weed out "choppy" trading days.
Step 3 is to wait for a retracement and enter with a close through the previous candle's high (if long biased) or low (if short biased). There are a couple toggleable criteria that we use to define a retracement; one is checking for opposite close candles that indicate a pullback; another is checking if price took the previous candle's low (if long biased) or high (if short biased).
This trade model was initially tested for index futures, particularly ES and NQ, using a 5m chart, however this indicator allows us to backtest any symbol on any timeframe. Creators @imjesstwoone and @mickey1984 specified a 5 point stop loss on ES and a 25 point stop loss on NQ with their testing.
I've personally found some success in backtesting NQ 5m using a 25 point stop loss and 75 point profit target (3:1 R). Enabling the Use Fixed R:R parameter will ensure that these stops and targets are utilized, otherwise it will enter and hold the position until the close of the Trade Window.
Bollinger Bands (Nadaraya Smoothed) | Flux ChartsTicker: AMEX:SPY , Timeframe: 1m, Indicator settings: default
General Purpose
This script is an upgrade to the classic Bollinger Bands. The idea behind Bollinger bands is the detection of price movements outside of a stock's typical fluctuations. Bollinger Bands use a moving average over period n plus/minus the standard deviation over period n times a multiplier. When price closes above or below either band this can be considered an abnormal movement. This script allows for the classic Bollinger Band interpretation while de-noising or "smoothing" the bands.
Efficacy
Ticker: AMEX:SPY , Timeframe: 1m, Indicator settings: Standard Dev: 2; Level 1 : off; Level 2: off; labels: off
Upper Band Key:
Blue: Bollinger No smoothing
Orange: Bollinger SMA smoothing period of 10
Purple: Bollinger EMA smoothing period of 10
Red: Nadaraya Smoothed Bollinger bandwidth of 6
Here we chose periods so that each would have a similar offset from the original Bollinger's. Notice that the Red Band has a much smoother result while on average having a similar fit to the other smoothing techniques. Increasing the EMA's or SMA's period would result in them being smoother however the offset would increase making them less accurate to the original data.
Ticker: AMEX:SPY , Timeframe: 1m, Indicator settings: Standard Dev: 2; Level 1: off; Level 2: off; labels: off
Upper Band Key:
Blue: Bollinger No smoothing
Orange: Bollinger SMA smoothing period of 20
Purple: Bollinger EMA smoothing period of 20
Red: Nadaraya Smoothed Bollinger bandwidth of 6
This makes the Nadaraya estimator a particularly efficacious technique in this use case as it achieves a superior smoothness to fit ratio.
How to Use
This indicator is not intended to be used on its own. Its use case is to identify outlier movements and periods of consolidation. The Smoothing Factor when lowered results in a more reactive but noisy graph. This setting is also known as the "bandwidth" ; it essentially raises the amplitude of the kernel function causing a greater weighting to recent data similar to lowering the period of a SMA or EMA. The repaint smoothing simply draws on the Bollinger's each chart update. Typically repaint would be used for processing and displaying discrete data however currently it's simply another way to display the Bollinger Bands.
What makes this script unique.
Since Bollinger bands use standard deviation they have excess noise. By noise we mean minute fluctuations which most traders will not find useful in their strategies. The Nadaraya-Watson estimator, as used, is essentially a weighted average akin to an ema. A gaussian kernel is placed at the candlestick of interest. That candlestick's value will have the highest weight. From that point the other candlesticks' values effect on the average will decrease with the slope of the kernel function. This creates a localized mean of the Bollinger Bands allowing for reduced noise with minimal distortion of the original Bollinger data.
ICT Silver Bullet with signals
The "ICT Silver Bullet with signals" indicator (inspired from the lectures of "The Inner Circle Trader" (ICT)),
goes a step further than the ICT Silver Bullet publication, which I made for LuxAlgo :
• uses HTF candles
• instant drawing of Support & Resistance (S/R) lines when price retraces into FVG
• NWOG - NDOG S/R lines
• signals
The Silver Bullet (SB) window which is a specific 1-hour interval where a Fair Value Gap (FVG) pattern can be formed.
When price goes back to the FVG, without breaking it, Support & Resistance lines will be drawn immediately.
There are 3 different Silver Bullet windows (New York local time):
The London Open Silver Bullet (03 AM — 04 AM ~ 03:00 — 04:00)
The AM Session Silver Bullet (10 AM — 11 AM ~ 10:00 — 11:00)
The PM Session Silver Bullet (02 PM — 03 PM ~ 14:00 — 15:00)
🔶 USAGE
This technique can visualise potential support/resistance lines, which can be used as targets.
The script contains 2 main components:
• forming of a Fair Value Gap (FVG)
• drawing support/resistance (S/R) lines
🔹 Forming of FVG
When HTF candles forms an FVG, the FVG will be drawn at the end (close) of the last HTF candle.
To make it easier to visualise the 2 HTF candles that form the FVG, you can enable
• SHOW -> HTF candles
During the SB session, when a FVG is broken, the FVG will be removed, together with its S/R lines.
The same goes if price did not retrace into FVG at the last bar of the SB session
Only exception is when "Remove broken FVG's" is disabled.
In this case a FVG can be broken, as long as price bounces back before the end of the SB session, it will remain to be visible:
🔹 Drawing support/resistance lines
S/R target lines are drawn immediately when price retraces into the FVG.
They will remain updated until they are broken (target hit)
Potential S/R lines are formed by:
• previous swings (swing settings (left-right)
• New Week Opening Gap (NWOG): close on Friday - weekly open
• New Day Opening Gap (NWOG): close previous day - current daily open
Only non-broken lines are included.
Broken =
• minimum of open and close below potential S/R line
• maximum of open and close above potential S/R line
NDOG lines are coloured fuchsia (as in the ICT lectures), NWOG are coloured white (darkmode) or black (lightmode ~ ICT lectures)
Swing line colour can be set as desired.
Here S/R includes NDOG lines:
The same situation, with "Extend Target-lines to their source" enabled:
Here with NWOG lines:
This publication contains a "Minimum Trade Framework (mTFW)", which represents the best-case expected price delivery, this is not your actual trade entry - exit range.
• 40 ticks for index futures or indices
• 15 pips for Forex pairs
The minimum distance (if applicable) can be shown by enabling "Show" - "Minimum Trade Framework" -> blue arrow from close to mTFW
Potential S/R lines needs to be higher (bullish) or lower (bearish) than mTFW.
🔶 SETTINGS
(check USAGE for deeper insights and explanation)
🔹 Only last x bars: when enabled, the script will do most of the calculations at these last x candles, potentially this can speeds calculations.
🔹 Swing settings (left-right): Sets the length, which will set the lookback period/sensitivity of the ZigZag patterns (which directs the trend and points for S/R lines)
🔹 FVG
HTF (minutes): 1-15 minutes.
• When the chart TF is equal of higher, calculations are based on current TF.
• Chart TF > 15 minutes will give the warning: "Please use a timeframe <= 15 minutes".
Remove broken FVG's: when enabled the script will remove FVG (+ associated S/R lines) immediately when FVG is broken at opposite direction.
FVG's still will be automatically removed at the end of the SB session, when there is no retrace, together with associated S/R lines,...
~ trend: Only include FVG in the same direction as the current trend
Note -> when set 'right' (swing setting) rather high ( > 3), he trend change will be delayed as well (default 'right' max 5)
Extend: extend FVG to max right side of SB session
🔹 Targets – support/resistance
Extend Target-lines to their source: extend lines to their origin
Colours (Swing S/R lines)
🔹 Show
SB session: show lines and labels of SB session (+ colour)
• Labels can be disabled separately in the 'Style' section, colour is set at the 'Inputs' section
Trend : Show trend (ZigZag, coloured ~ trend)
HTF candles: Show the 2 HTF candles that form the FVG
Minimum Trade Framework: blue arrow (if applicable)
🔶 ALERTS
There are 4 signals provided (bullish/bearish):
FVG Formed
FVG Retrace
Target reached
FVG cancelled
You can choose between dynamic alerts - only 1 alert needs to be set for all signals, or you can set specific alerts as desired.
💜 PURPLE BARS 😈
• Since TradingView has chosen to give away our precious Purple coloured Wizard Badge, bars are coloured purple 😊😉
