波動率
Volatility Strategy 01a quantitative volatility strategy (especially effective in trend direction on the 15min chart on the s&p-index)
the strategy is a rule-based setup, which dynamically adapts to the implied volatility structure (vx1!–vx2!)
context-dependent mean reversion strategy based on multiple timeframes in the vix index
a signal is provided under following conditions:
1. the vvix/vix spread has deviated significantly beyond one standard deviation
2. the vix is positioned above or below 3 moving averages on 3 minor timeframes
3. the trade direction is derived from the projected volatility regime, measured via vx1! and vx2! (cboe)
Options Strategy V1.3📈 Options Strategy V1.3 — EMA Crossover + RSI + ATR + Opening Range
Overview:
This strategy is designed for short-term directional trades on large-cap stocks or ETFs, especially when trading options. It combines classic trend-following signals with momentum confirmation, volatility-based risk management, and session timing filters to help identify high-probability entries with predefined stop-loss and profit targets.
🔍 Strategy Components:
EMA Crossover (Fast/Slow)
Entry signals are triggered by the crossover of a short EMA above or below a long EMA — a traditional trend-following method to detect shifts in momentum.
RSI Filter
RSI confirms the signal by avoiding entries in overbought/oversold zones unless certain momentum conditions are met.
Long entry requires RSI ≥ Long Threshold
Short entry requires RSI ≤ Short Threshold
ATR-Based SL & TP
Stop-loss is set dynamically as a multiple of ATR below (long) or above (short) the entry price.
Take-profit is placed as a ratio (TP/SL) of the stop distance, ensuring consistent reward/risk structure.
Opening Range Filter (Optional)
If enabled, the strategy only triggers trades after price breaks out of the 09:30–09:45 EST range, ensuring participation in directional moves.
Session Filters
No trades from 04:00 to 09:30 and from 16:00 to 20:00 EST, avoiding low-liquidity periods.
All open trades are closed at 15:55 EST, to avoid overnight risk or expiration issues for options.
⚙️ Built-in Presets:
You can choose one of the built-in ticker-specific presets for optimal conditions:
Ticker EMAs RSI (Long/Short) ATR SL×ATR TP/SL
SPY 8/28 56 / 26 14 1.4× 4.0×
TSLA 23/27 56 / 33 13 1.4× 3.6×
AAPL 6/13 61 / 26 23 1.4× 2.1×
MSFT 25/32 54 / 26 14 1.2× 2.2×
META 25/32 53 / 26 17 1.8× 2.3×
AMZN 28/32 55 / 25 16 1.8× 2.3×
You can also choose "Custom" to fully configure all parameters to your own market and strategy preferences.
📌 Best Use Case:
This strategy is especially suited for intraday options trading, where timing and risk control are critical. It works best on liquid tickers with strong trends or clear breakout behavior.
EMA/ATR/RSIThis indicator overlays three key technical measures—Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Average True Range (ATR), and a custom-scaled Relative Strength Index (RSI)—on your price chart, all using the same lookback period.
Features
• EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Smooths price action to highlight trend direction.
• ATR (Average True Range): Measures market volatility via an RMA-smoothed True Range.
• RSI (Modified): Scales the standard RSI by subtracting 35 and multiplying by 2, shifting the baseline for clearer momentum signals.
Inputs
• period (integer): Lookback length for EMA, ATR, and RSI calculations (default: 14).
How to Use
1. Adjust period to suit your preferred timeframe (e.g., 14 for daily charts, 7 for intraday).
2. Use the EMA line to identify trend direction and dynamic support/resistance.
3. Monitor ATR to gauge changing volatility—wider bands signal stronger moves.
4. Watch the modified RSI crossovers around zero:
• Above 0: Bullish momentum
• Below 0: Bearish momentum
Combine these three overlays to refine entries, exits, and stop-loss placement based on trend strength, volatility, and momentum all in one view.
Pro Scalping Strategy [1Min | No Repaint | High Precision]Pro Scalping Strategy
Dual-Mode Precision Scalping System | EMA Trend + RSI + ATR | Non-Repainting
🔍 Overview
This indicator is a precision-engineered scalping tool optimized for lower timeframes (1–5 min), offering stable Buy/Sell signals without repainting.
Built on a robust trend-following framework, this system gives you the choice of two operating modes:
🔒 High Accuracy: Strict filters, fewer but stronger signals
⚡ More Signals: Looser filters, more frequent entries
🧠 How It Works
The logic is based on a multi-filter engine applied on closed candles only, ensuring non-repainting, clean, and confirmed entries.
⚙️ Technical Filters Used
1. EMA Trend Stack
Defines market trend using 3 EMAs (9, 21, 50)
Buy: EMA9 > EMA21 > EMA50
Sell: EMA9 < EMA21 < EMA50
2. EMA Crossover Filter
A confirmed crossover or crossunder is required from 2 candles back
Ensures trend momentum is validated before signal appears
3. EMA Slope Filter
Only accepts signals if mid EMA (EMA21) is sloping in trend direction
4. RSI Filter
Filters out signals when RSI is too extreme
RSI < overbought for Buy / RSI > oversold for Sell
5. ATR Filter
Confirms market has enough volatility
ATR must exceed a minimum threshold
✅ Modes Comparison
Feature High Accuracy Mode More Signals Mode
Min EMA Gap 0.1 0.05
Min ATR 0.2 0.1
RSI Range 30–70 25–75
Entry Frequency Lower Higher
Signal Quality Tighter + Stronger Looser + Flexible
🔔 Features
🔁 No repaint logic
⚙️ Adjustable settings with simple mode switch
⚡ Real-time alerts via alertcondition()
✅ Visual confirmation with BUY/SELL labels
💹 Suitable for scalping crypto, forex, gold, indices, and more
📌 Author: ALIP FX
“Success Elevated, Trade Smarter.”
RFM Strategy - High QualityI trade high-probability resistance fades using a systematic 4-pillar approach that has delivered a proven 60%+ win rate with 2.5+ profit factor."
📊 Core Strategy Elements:
1. VRF Resistance Identification:
Multiple resistance level confluence (minimum 2 levels)
Dynamic resistance zones using 20-period high/low ranges
Only trade when price approaches clustered resistance
2. Volume Weakness Confirmation:
Volume ROC must be ≤ -30% (weak buying pressure)
Identifies exhaustion rallies with poor participation
Confirms institutional selling vs retail buying
3. Momentum Divergence:
SMI ≥ 60 (extreme overbought) OR 25-point momentum collapse
Multi-timeframe confirmation for higher reliability
Catches momentum exhaustion at key levels
4. Price Rejection Patterns:
Long upper wicks (2x body size) at resistance
Doji formations showing indecision
Failed breakout patterns with immediate rejection
⚡ Execution:
Entry: Only when ALL 4 conditions align simultaneously
Risk Management: 6-point stops, 12-point targets (2:1 R/R minimum)
Timeframe: 5-minute charts for precise entries
Selectivity: Quality over quantity - average 5 trades per period
🏆 Performance:
60% win rate (matches manual trading performance)
2.59 Profit Factor (highly profitable)
Systematic approach eliminates emotional decisions
"This strategy automates the discretionary resistance fade setups that institutional traders use, with strict filters ensuring only the highest-probability opportunities."
Close vs 50SMA % (Bars colored by 20SMA)This indicator plots the percentage difference between the Close price and the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA50), and colors each bar based on whether the Close is above or below the 20-period SMA (SMA20).
MACD Triple divergence signalsThis script is a basic combination of several scripts that I found very useful. It's a MACD divergence on steroids. Instead of using only one plot as a source for detecting divergence, I use all of the plots.
The idea is that if more divergence signals appear—especially after a prolonged downtrend or uptrend—they can be interpreted as a strong divergence signal.
The third divergence signal is taken from the MACD signal line. It has a longer-term lookback range, which could provide a more reliable divergence signal.
The default minimum lookback range is 15, much greater than the usual value of 5. This makes it more suitable for long-term trading or for lower timeframes (lower than 4H) to reduce noise from excessive signals. For timeframes higher than 4H, the setting can be reduced to around 10 or even 5.
For the 1W (weekly) timeframe, try using a value of 3.
I also added a band to give a clear visual of overbought and oversold areas. It works similarly to Bollinger Bands (BB). You can spot when the price is ranging or when a stop-loss hunt occurs (i.e., the price breaks the band).
Please do your homework—backtest it yourself to find which timeframe suits you best. You can also tweak the settings if you find the default values too aggressive or too mild.
I’ve found that MACD is more reliable on timeframes greater than 1H. Personally, I use it on the 4H and 1D timeframes.
in bahasa:
MACD dengan 3 sinyal divergence, kalau muncul lebih banyak, bisa jadi sinyal lebih menyakinkan.
Minimum lookback range default-nya 15 agar tidak muncul terlalu banyak sinyal. 15 lebih panjang, lebih ok. Kalau main di higher timeframe seperti 1D, bisa 5-10, kalau weeky timeframe = 3.
Untuk band, cek ketika plot-nya keluar dari band, itu bisa jadi jackpot, apalagi kalau plot-nya membentuk double bottom.
Backtest sendiri, siapa tahu kalian bisa dapet setting sendiri.
MACD with upper and lower band will give you a clear visual of price movements
More divergence signals are generated and when the price breaks out of the oversold band = jackpot.
Dynamic Volatility Channel (DVC) - Smooth
The indicator's adaptability comes from a unique blend of well-known concepts:
The Adaptive Engine (ADX): The indicator uses the Average Directional Index (ADX) in the background to analyze the strength of the trend. This acts as the "brain", telling the channel whether the market is trending strongly or moving sideways.
Hybrid Volatility: This is the core of the indicator. The width of the channel is determined by a weighted mix of two volatility measures:
In trending markets (high ADX), the channel gives more weight to the Average True Range (ATR).
In ranging markets (low ADX), the channel gives more weight to Standard Deviation.
Smooth Centerline (HMA): The channel is centered around a Hull Moving Average (HMA), which is known for its smoothness and reduced lag compared to other moving averages.
Advanced Smoothing Layers: This version includes dedicated smoothing for both the volatility components (ATR and StDev) and the logic that switches between regimes. This ensures the channel expands, contracts, and adapts in a very fluid manner, eliminating sudden jumps and reducing market noise.
Mean Reversion: In ranging markets (indicated by a flatter channel), the outer bands can act as dynamic support and resistance levels. Look for opportunities to sell near the upper band and buy near the lower band, always waiting for price action confirmation like reversal candles.
Trend Following: In strong trends (indicated by a steeply sloped channel), the centerline (HMA) often serves as a dynamic level of support (in an uptrend) or resistance (in a downtrend). Pullbacks to the centerline can present opportunities to join the trend. A "band ride," where price action consistently pushes against the upper or lower band, signals a very strong trend.
Volatility Analysis: A "squeeze," where the bands come very close together, indicates low volatility and can foreshadow a significant price breakout. A sudden expansion of the bands signals an increase in volatility and the potential start of a new, powerful move.
All core parameters are fully customizable to suit your trading style and preferred assets:
You can adjust the lengths for the HMA, ATR, StDev, and the ADX filter.
You can change the multipliers for the ATR and Standard Deviation components.
Crucially, you can control the Volatility Smoothing Length and Logic Smoothing Length to find the perfect balance between responsiveness and smoothness.
Disclaimer: This indicator is provided for educational and analytical purposes only. It is not financial advice, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and backtesting before risking capital in a live market.
Volatility & Momentum Nexus (VMN)Volatility & Momentum Nexus (VMN)
This indicator was designed to solve a common trader's problem: chart clutter from dozens of indicators that often contradict each other. The Volatility & Momentum Nexus ( VMN ) is not just another indicator; it's a complete analysis system that synthesizes four essential market pillars into a single, clean, and intuitive visual signal.
The goal of VMN is to identify high-probability moments where a period of accumulation (low volatility) is about to erupt into an explosive move, confirmed by trend, momentum, and volume.
VMN analyzes the real-time confluence of four critical elements:
The Trend (The Main Filter): A 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sets the overall context. The indicator will only look for buy signals above this line (in an uptrend) and sell signals below it (in a downtrend). The line's color changes for quick visualization.
Volatility (Energy Accumulation): Using Bollinger Bands Width (BBW), the indicator identifies "Squeeze" periods—when the price contracts and builds up energy. These zones are marked with a yellow background on the chart, signaling that a major move is imminent.
Momentum (The Trigger): An RSI (Relative Strength Index) acts as the trigger. A signal is only validated if momentum confirms the direction of the breakout (e.g., RSI > 55 for a buy), ensuring we enter the market with force.
Volume (The Final Confirmation): No breakout move is credible without volume. VMN checks if the volume at the time of the signal is significantly higher than its recent average, adding a vital layer of confirmation.
Green Arrow (Buy Signal): Appears ONLY when ALL the following conditions are met simultaneously:
Price is above the 100 EMA (Bullish Trend).
The chart is exiting a Squeeze zone (yellow background on the previous bar).
Price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band.
RSI is above the buy threshold (default 55).
Volume is above average.
Red Arrow (Sell Signal): Appears ONLY when all the opposite conditions are met.
Do not treat signals as blind commands to trade. They are high-probability confirmations.
Look for signals near key Support/Resistance levels for an even higher success rate.
Always set a Stop Loss (e.g., below the low of the signal candle or below the lower Bollinger Band for a buy).
All parameters (EMA, RSI, Bollinger Bands lengths, thresholds, etc.) can be customized from the settings menu to adapt the indicator to any financial asset or timeframe.
Disclaimer: This indicator is a tool for educational and analytical purposes. It does not constitute and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Trading involves significant risk. Always perform your own analysis and backtesting before risking real capital.
Future is hereOverview
"Future is Here" is an original, multi-faceted Pine Script indicator designed to provide traders with a comprehensive toolset for identifying high-probability trading opportunities. By integrating volatility-based entry zones, trend-based price targets, momentum confirmation, dynamic support/resistance levels, and risk-reward ratio (RRR) calculations, this indicator offers a cohesive and actionable trading framework. Each feature is carefully designed to complement the others, ensuring a synergistic approach that enhances decision-making across various market conditions. This script is unique in its ability to combine these elements into a single, streamlined interface with clear visual cues and customizable alerts, making it suitable for both novice and experienced traders.
Key Features and How They Work Together
Volatility-Based Entry Zones
Purpose: Identifies overbought and oversold conditions using a volatility-adjusted moving average, helping traders spot potential reversal zones.
Mechanism: Utilizes a user-defined volatility length and multiplier to calculate dynamic overbought/oversold thresholds based on the standard deviation of price. Crossovers and crossunders of these levels trigger "Buy Zone" or "Sell Zone" labels.
Synergy: These zones act as the foundation for entry signals, which are later confirmed by momentum and trend filters to reduce false signals.
Trend-Based Price Targets
Purpose: Projects potential price targets based on the prevailing trend, giving traders clear objectives for profit-taking.
Mechanism: Combines a fast and slow moving average to determine trend direction, then calculates target prices using a multiplier of the price deviation from the slow MA. Labels display bullish or bearish targets when the fast MA crosses the slow MA.
Synergy: Works in tandem with entry zones and momentum signals to align targets with market conditions, ensuring traders aim for realistic price levels supported by trend strength.
Momentum Confirmation
Purpose: Validates entry signals by assessing momentum strength, filtering out weak setups.
Mechanism: Uses the momentum indicator to detect bullish or bearish momentum crossovers, labeling them as "Strong" or "Weak" based on a comparison with a smoothed momentum average.
Synergy: Enhances the reliability of buy/sell signals by ensuring momentum aligns with volatility zones and trend direction, reducing the risk of premature entries.
Dynamic Support/Resistance Levels
Purpose: Highlights key price levels where the market is likely to react, aiding in trade planning and risk management.
Mechanism: Detects pivot highs and lows over a user-defined lookback period, drawing horizontal lines for the most recent support and resistance levels (limited to two each for clarity). Labels mark these levels with price values.
Synergy: Complements entry zones and price targets by providing context for potential reversal or continuation points, helping traders set logical stop-losses or take-profits.
Buy/Sell Signals with Risk-Reward Ratios
Purpose: Generates precise buy/sell signals with integrated take-profit (TP), stop-loss (SL), and RRR calculations for disciplined trading.
Mechanism: Combines volatility zone crossovers, trend confirmation, and positive momentum to trigger signals. ATR-based TP and SL levels are calculated, and the RRR is displayed in labels for quick assessment.
Synergy: This feature ties together all previous components, ensuring signals are only generated when volatility, trend, and momentum align, while providing clear risk-reward metrics for trade evaluation.
Customizable Alerts
Purpose: Enables traders to stay informed of trading opportunities without constant chart monitoring.
Mechanism: Alert conditions are set for buy and sell signals, delivering notifications with the entry price for seamless integration into trading workflows.
Synergy: Enhances usability by allowing traders to act on high-probability setups identified by the indicator’s combined logic.
Originality
"Future is Here" is an original creation that distinguishes itself through its holistic approach to technical analysis. Unlike single-purpose indicators, it integrates volatility, trend, momentum, and support/resistance into a unified system, reducing the need for multiple scripts. The inclusion of RRR calculations directly in signal labels is a unique feature that empowers traders to evaluate trade quality instantly. The script’s design emphasizes clarity and efficiency, with cooldowns to prevent label clutter and a limit on support/resistance lines to maintain chart readability. This combination of features, along with its customizable parameters, makes it a versatile and novel tool for traders seeking a robust, all-in-one solution.
How to Use
Setup: Add the indicator to your TradingView chart and adjust input parameters (e.g., Volatility Length, Trend Length, TP/SL Multipliers) to suit your trading style and timeframe.
Interpretation:
Look for "Buy Zone" or "Sell Zone" labels to identify potential entry points.
Confirm entries with "Bull Mom" or "Bear Mom" labels and trend direction (Bull/Bear Target labels).
Use Support/Resistance lines to set logical TP/SL levels or anticipate reversals.
Evaluate Buy/Sell signals with TP, SL, and RRR for high-probability trades.
Alerts: Set up alerts for Buy/Sell signals to receive real-time notifications.
Customization: Fine-tune multipliers and lengths to adapt the indicator to different markets (e.g., stocks, forex, crypto) or timeframes.
Dow Theory Trend IndicatorIdentifies bullish (Higher Highs/Lows) and bearish (Lower Highs/Lows) trends using Dow Theory principles, with dynamic volume confirmation.
Displays the current trend status ("Bull", "Bear", or "Neutral")
💰 Volume Spike Detector - by TenAMTrader💰 Volume Spike Detector – by TenAMTrader
Overview
This indicator helps you spot potential trading opportunities by identifying volume spikes—a common precursor to strong market moves. When a candle's volume exceeds the average volume of the past sessions by a defined percentage (default 25%), a 💰 emoji will appear beneath the bar on your chart.
How to Use It:
Look for the 💰 money sign plotted below candles—these mark when the current volume is significantly higher than usual.
Use these signals to confirm price action setups, trend reversals, or breakout entries.
Combine with support/resistance or other indicators for higher conviction.
Settings & Customization
Spike Ratio %: The percentage above average volume required to trigger a signal (default: 25%).
Trading Period: The number of past bars used to calculate average volume (default: 21).
Enable Alert: Toggle on/off if you want to be alerted when a spike happens.
How to Set Up Alerts
After adding the script to your chart, click the "Alerts" icon.
Choose the condition: Volume Spike Alert.
Set frequency: Once per bar close or Once per bar.
Save and activate to be notified of incoming volume surges.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always perform your own due diligence and risk management. The creator of this script, TenAMTrader, is not liable for any losses incurred from using this tool.
Step Channel Momentum Trend [ChartPrime]OVERVIEW
Step Channel Momentum Trend is a momentum-based price filtering system that adapts to market structure using pivot levels and ATR volatility. It builds a dynamic channel around a stepwise midline derived from swing highs and lows. The system colors price candles based on whether price remains inside this channel (low momentum) or breaks out (strong directional flow). This allows traders to clearly distinguish ranging conditions from trending ones and take action accordingly.
⯁ STRUCTURAL MIDLNE (STEP CHANNEL CORE)
The midline acts as the backbone of the trend system and is based on structure rather than smoothing.
Calculated as the average of the most recent confirmed Pivot High and Pivot Low.
The result is a step-like horizontal line that only updates when new pivot points are confirmed.
This design avoids lag and makes the line "snap" to recent structural shifts.
It reflects the equilibrium level between recent bullish and bearish control.
snapshot
This unique step logic creates clear regime shifts and prevents noise from distorting trend interpretation.
⯁ DYNAMIC VOLATILITY BANDS (ATR FILTERING)
To detect momentum strength, the script constructs upper and lower bands using the ATR (Average True Range):
The distance from the midline is determined by ATR × multiplier (default: 200-period ATR × 0.6).
These bands adjust dynamically to volatility, expanding in high-ATR environments and contracting in calm markets.
The area between upper and lower bands represents a neutral or ranging market state.
Breakouts outside the bands are treated as significant momentum shifts.
snapshot
This filtering approach ensures that only meaningful breakouts are visually emphasized — not every candle fluctuation.
⯁ MOMENTUM-BASED CANDLE COLORING
The system visually transforms price candles into momentum indicators:
When price (hl2) is above the upper band, candles are green → bullish momentum.
snapshot
When price is below the lower band, candles are red → bearish momentum.
snapshot
When price is between the bands, candles are orange → low or no momentum (range).
snapshot
The candle body, wick, and border are all colored uniformly for visual clarity.
This gives traders instant feedback on when momentum is expanding or fading — ideal for breakout, pullback, or trend-following strategies.
⯁ PIVOT-BASED SWING ANCHORS
Each confirmed pivot is plotted as a label ⬥ directly on the chart:
snapshot
They also serve as potential manual entry zones, SL/TP anchors, or confirmation points.
⯁ MOMENTUM STATE LABEL
To reinforce the current market mode, a live label is displayed at the most recent candle:
Displays either:
“Momentum Up” when price breaks above the upper band.
snapshot
“Momentum Down” when price breaks below the lower band.
snapshot
“Range” when price remains between the bands.
snapshot
Label color matches the candle color for quick identification.
Automatically updates on each bar close.
This helps discretionary traders filter trades based on market phase.
USAGE
Use the green/red zones to enter with momentum and ride trending moves.
Use the orange zone to stay out or fade ranges.
The step midline can act as a breakout base, pullback anchor, or bias reference.
Combine with other indicators (e.g., order blocks, divergences, or volume) to build high-confluence systems.
CONCLUSION
Step Channel Momentum Trend gives traders a clean, adaptive framework for identifying trend direction, volatility-based breakouts, and ranging environments — all from structural logic and ATR responsiveness. Its stepwise midline provides clarity, while its dynamic color-coded candles make momentum shifts impossible to miss. Whether you’re scalping intraday momentum or managing swing entries, this tool helps you trade with the market’s rhythm — not against it.
Profit Seeker📈 Profit Seeker — Precision Trend Signal Indicator
Profit Seeker is a trend-based multi-condition indicator designed to identify high-probability long and short trade setups by combining the strengths of multiple proven technical tools:
🔍 Core Features:
Heiken Ashi Mode (Optional): Smoothens price action to reduce noise and improve trend clarity.
Stochastic Ribbon Pivots: Detect trend reversals with built-in “HUNT” signals.
Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO): Confirms weakening or strengthening momentum — labeled as “SIGHT”.
Bollinger Bands (BB): Pinpoint final entry triggers when price breaches volatility extremes — the “FIRE” signal.
Multi-Timeframe Trend Filtering: Trade only in the direction of a dominant higher-timeframe trend.
Color-coded Flags:
🟢 HUNT: Initial trend signal
🟢 SIGHT: Momentum alignment
🟢 FIRE: Volatility-based confirmation
Smart Alerts: Receive real-time long or short alerts when all conditions align.
🛠️ Use Cases:
Ideal for swing and intraday traders
Works on all asset classes: crypto, forex, equities, commodities
Compatible with manual trading or automated bots
[Mad]Triple Bollinger Bands ForecastTriple Bollinger Bands Forecast (BBx3+F)
This open-source indicator is an advanced version of the classic Bollinger Bands, designed to provide a more comprehensive and forward-looking view of market volatility and potential price levels.
It plots three distinct sets of Bollinger Bands and projects them into the future based on statistical calculations.
How It Is Built and Key Features
Triple Bollinger Bands: Instead of a single set of bands, this indicator plots three. All three share the same central basis line (a Simple Moving Average), but each has a different standard deviation multiplier. This creates three distinct volatility zones for analyzing price deviation from its mean.
Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Capability: The indicator can calculate and display Bollinger Bands from a higher timeframe (e.g., showing daily bands on a 4-hour chart). This allows for contextualizing price action within the volatility structure of a more significant trend.
(Lower HTF selection will result in script-crash!)
Future Forecasting: This is the indicator's main feature. It projects the calculated Bollinger Bands up to 8 bars into the future. This forecast is a recalculation of the Simple Moving Average and Standard Deviation based on a projected future source price.
Selectable Forecast Methods: The mathematical model for estimating the future source price can be selected:
Flat: A model that uses the most recent closing price as the price for all future bars in the calculation window.
Linreg (Linear Regression): A model that calculates a linear regression trend on the last few bars and projects it forward to estimate the future source price.
Efficient Drawing with Polylines: The future projections are drawn on the chart using Pine Script's polyline object. This is an efficient method that draws the forecast data only on the last bar, which avoids repainting issues.
Differences from a Classical Bollinger Bands Indicator
Band Count: A classical indicator shows one set of bands. This indicator plots three sets for a multi-layered view of volatility.
Perspective: Classical Bollinger Bands are purely historical. This indicator is both historical and forward-looking .
Forecasting: The classic version has no forecasting capability. This indicator projects the bands into the future .
Timeframe: The classic version works only on the current timeframe. This indicator has full Multi-Timeframe (MTF) support .
The Mathematics Behind the Future Predictions
The core challenge in forecasting Bollinger Bands is that a future band value depends on future prices, which are unknown. This indicator solves this by simulating a future price series. Here is the step-by-step logic:
Forecast the Source Price for the Next Bar
First, the indicator estimates what the price will be on the next bar.
Flat Method: The forecasted price is the current bar's closing price.
Price_forecast = close
Linreg Method: A linear regression is calculated on the last few bars and extrapolated one step forward.
Price_forecast = ta.linreg(close, linreglen, 1)
Calculate the Future SMA (Basis)
To calculate the Simple Moving Average for the next bar, a new data window is simulated. This window includes the new forecasted price and drops the oldest historical price. For a 1-bar forecast, the calculation is:
SMA_future = (Price_forecast + close + close + ... + close ) / length
Calculate the Future Standard Deviation
Similarly, the standard deviation for the next bar is calculated over this same simulated window of prices, using the new SMA_future as its mean.
// 1. Calculate the sum of squared differences from the new mean
d_f = Price_forecast - SMA_future
d_0 = close - SMA_future
// ... and so on for the rest of the window's prices
SumOfSquares = (d_f)^2 + (d_0)^2 + ... + (d_length-2)^2
// 2. Calculate future variance and then the standard deviation
Var_future = SumOfSquares / length
StDev_future = sqrt(Var_future)
Extending the Forecast (2 to 8 Bars)
For forecasts further into the future (e.g., 2 bars), the script uses the same single Price_forecast for all future steps in the calculation. For a 2-bar forecast, the simulated window effectively contains the forecasted price twice, while dropping the two oldest historical prices. This provides a statistically-grounded projection of where the Bollinger Bands are likely to form.
Usage as a Forecast Extension
This indicator's functionality is designed to be modular. It can be used in conjunction with as example Mad Triple Bollinger Bands MTF script to separate the rendering of historical data from the forward-looking forecast.
Configuration for Combined Use:
Add both the Mad Triple Bollinger Bands MTF and this Triple Bollinger Bands Forecast indicator to your chart.
Open the Settings for this indicator (BBx3+F).
In the 'General Settings' tab, disable the Activate Plotting option.
To ensure data consistency, the Bollinger Length, Multipliers, and Higher Timeframe settings should be identical across both indicators.
This configuration prevents the rendering of duplicate historical bands. The Mad Triple Bollinger Bands MTF script will be responsible for visualizing the historical and current bands, while this script will overlay only the forward-projected polyline data.
Momo MasterA combination of moving averages and macd in one indicator.
Shows trend directionality and momentum.
SMA200 and VWAP are additional indicators that help to quickly assess whether we are in an up or down trend
COG GravityBased on the COG concept by veryfid — but shown directly on the chart instead of an oscillator pane.
Long Entry
Price crosses above the COG line, and
Price is above the SMA
COG velocity is rising (momentum is building)
Short Entry
Price crosses below the COG line, and
Price is below the SMA
COG velocity is falling (momentum is weakening)
Feel free to modify the script and let me know ☺️
Liquidity Sweep Strategy v2 - Fixed Close LabelsThe Liquidity Sweep Strategy v2 is designed to detect stop-loss hunting behavior, commonly seen in institutional trading. It capitalizes on false breakouts beyond recent swing highs or lows (liquidity zones), which are followed by sharp reversals.
This strategy is particularly effective during high-volume liquidity grabs when markets trigger stop-loss clusters and then reverse direction — a phenomenon often referred to as a liquidity sweep or stop hunt
volatility-adjusted breakout envelopethis indicator is designed to help traders visually identify potential entry and exit points based on volatility-adjusted price thresholds. it works by calculating a dynamic expected price move around the previous close using historical volatility data smoothed by exponential moving averages to reduce noise and present a clear range boundary on the chart.
the indicator first computes the logarithmic returns over a user-defined lookback period and calculates the standard deviation of these returns, which represents raw volatility. it annualizes this volatility according to the chart timeframe selected, then uses it to estimate an expected price movement for the current timeframe. this expected move is smoothed to avoid sudden spikes or drops that could cause confusing signals.
using this expected move, the indicator generates two key threshold lines: an upper threshold and a lower threshold. these lines create a volatility-based range around the smoothed previous close price. the thresholds themselves are further smoothed with exponential moving averages to produce smooth, easy-to-interpret lines that adapt to changing market conditions without being choppy.
the core trading signals are generated when the price closes outside of these smoothed threshold ranges. specifically, a long entry signal is indicated when the price closes above the upper threshold for the first time, signaling potential upward momentum beyond normal volatility expectations. a short entry signal occurs when the price closes below the lower threshold for the first time, indicating potential downward momentum.
once an entry signal is triggered, the indicator waits for the price to close back inside the threshold range before signaling an exit. when this occurs, an exit marker is displayed to indicate that the price has returned within normal volatility bounds, which may suggest that the previous trend is losing strength or the breakout has ended.
these signals are visually represented on the chart using small shapes: triangles pointing upwards mark the initial long entries, triangles pointing downwards mark short entries, and x shapes mark the exits for both long and short positions. the colors of these shapes are customizable to suit user preferences.
to use this indicator effectively, traders should watch for the first close outside the smoothed volatility range to consider entering a position in the breakout direction. the exit signals help identify when price action reverts back into the expected range, which can be used to close or reduce the position. this method emphasizes trading breakouts supported by statistically significant moves relative to recent volatility while providing a clear exit discipline.
this indicator is best applied to intraday or daily charts with consistent volatility and volume characteristics. users should adjust the volatility lookback period, smoothing factor, and trading session times to match their specific market and trading style. because it relies on price volatility rather than fixed price levels, it can adapt to changing market conditions but should be combined with other analysis tools and proper risk management.
overall, this indicator provides a smoothed, dynamic volatility envelope with clear visual entry and exit cues based on first closes outside and back inside these envelopes, making it a helpful assistant for manual traders seeking to capture statistically significant breakouts while maintaining disciplined exits.
Uptrick: Universal Z-Score ValuationOverview
The Uptrick: Universal Z-Score Valuation is a tool designed to help traders spot when the market might be overreacting—whether that’s on the upside or the downside. It does this by combining the Z-scores of multiple key indicators into a single average, letting you see how far the current market conditions have stretched away from “normal.” This average is shown as a smooth line, supported by color-coded visuals, signal markers, optional background highlights, and a live breakdown table that shows the contribution of each indicator in real time. The focus here is on spotting potential reversals, not following trends. The indicator works well across all timeframes and asset classes, from fast intraday charts like the 1-minute and 5-minute, to higher timeframes such as the 4-hour, daily, or even weekly. Its universal design makes it suitable for any market — whether you're trading crypto, stocks, forex, or commodities.
Introduction
To understand what this indicator does, let’s start with the idea of a Z-score. In simple terms, a Z-score tells you how far a number is from the average of its recent history, measured in standard deviations. If the price of an asset is two standard deviations above its mean, that means it’s statistically “rare” or extended. That doesn’t guarantee a reversal—but it suggests the move is unusual enough to pay attention.
This concept isn’t new, but what this indicator does differently is apply the Z-score to a wide set of market signals—not just price. It looks at momentum, volatility, volume, risk-adjusted performance, and even institutional price baselines. Each of those indicators is normalized using Z-scores, and then they’re combined into one average. This gives you a single, easy-to-read line that summarizes whether the entire market is behaving abnormally. Instead of reacting to one indicator, you’re reacting to a statistically balanced blend.
Purpose
The goal of this script is to catch turning points—places where the market may be topping out or bottoming after becoming overstretched. It’s built for traders who want to fade sharp moves rather than follow trends. Think of moments when price explodes upward and starts pulling away from every moving average, volume spikes, volatility rises, and RSI shoots up. This tool is meant to spot those situations—not just when price is stretched, but when multiple different indicators agree that something is overdone.
Originality and Uniqueness
Most indicators that use Z-scores only apply them to one thing—price, RSI, or maybe Bollinger Bands. This one is different because it treats each indicator as a contributor to the full picture. You decide which ones to include, and the script averages them out. This makes the tool flexible but also deeply informative.
It doesn’t rely on complex or hidden math. It uses basic Z-score formulas, applies them to well-known indicators, and shows you the result. What makes it unique is the way it brings those signals together—statistically, visually, and interactively—so you can see what’s happening in the moment with full transparency. It’s not trying to be flashy or predictive. It’s just showing you when things have gone too far, too fast.
Inputs and Parameters
This indicator includes a wide range of configurable inputs, allowing users to customize which components are included in the Z-score average, how each indicator is calculated, and how results are displayed visually. Below is a detailed explanation of each input:
General Settings
Z-Score Lookback (default: 100): Number of bars used to calculate the mean and standard deviation for Z-score normalization. Larger values smooth the Z-scores; smaller values make them more reactive.
Bar Color Mode (default: None): Determines how bars are visually colored. Options include: None: No candle coloring applied. - Heat: Smooth gradient based on the Z-score value. - Latest Signal: Applies a solid color based on the most recent buy or sell signal
Boolean - General
Plot Universal Valuation Line (default: true): If enabled, plots the average Z-score (zAvg) line in the separate pane.
Show Signals (default: true): Displays labels ("𝓤𝓹" for buy, "𝓓𝓸𝔀𝓷" for sell) when zAvg crosses above or below user-defined thresholds.
Show Z-Score Table (default: true): Displays a live table listing each enabled indicator's Z-score and the current average.
Select Indicators
These toggles enable or disable each indicator from contributing to the Z-score average:
Use VWAP Z-Score (default: true)
Use Sortino Z-Score (default: true)
Use ROC Z-Score (default: true)
Use Price Z-Score (default: true)
Use MACD Histogram Z-Score (default: false)
Use Bollinger %B Z-Score (default: false)
Use Stochastic K Z-Score (default: false)
Use Volume Z-Score (default: false)
Use ATR Z-Score (default: false)
Use RSI Z-Score (default: false)
Use Omega Z-Score (default: true)
Use Sharpe Z-Score (default: true)
Only enabled indicators are included in the average. This modular design allows traders to tailor the signal mix to their preferences.
Indicator Lengths
These inputs control how each individual indicator is calculated:
MACD Fast Length (default: 12)
MACD Slow Length (default: 26)
MACD Signal Length (default: 9)
Bollinger Basis Length (default: 20): Used to compute the Bollinger %B.
Bollinger Deviation Multiplier (default: 2.0): Standard deviation multiplier for the Bollinger Band calculation.
Stochastic Length (default: 14)
ATR Length (default: 14)
RSI Length (default: 14)
ROC Length (default: 10)
Zones
These thresholds define key signal levels for the Z-score average:
Neutral Line Level (default: 0): Baseline for the average Z-score.
Bullish Zone Level (default: -1): Optional intermediate zone suggesting early bullish conditions.
Bearish Zone Level (default: 1): Optional intermediate zone suggesting early bearish conditions.
Z = +2 Line Level (default: 2): Primary threshold for bearish signals.
Z = +3 Line Level (default: 3): Extreme bearish warning level.
Z = -2 Line Level (default: -2): Primary threshold for bullish signals.
Z = -3 Line Level (default: -3): Extreme bullish warning level.
These zone levels are used to generate signals, fill background shading, and draw horizontal lines for visual reference.
Why These Indicators Were Merged
Each indicator in this script was chosen for a specific reason. They all measure something different but complementary.
The VWAP Z-score helps you see when price has moved far from the volume-weighted average, often used by institutions.
Sortino Ratio Z-score focuses only on downside risk, which is often more relevant to traders than overall volatility.
ROC Z-score shows how fast price is changing—strong momentum may burn out quickly.
Price Z-score is the raw measure of how far current price has moved from its mean.
RSI Z-score shows whether momentum itself is stretched.
MACD Histogram Z-score captures shifts in trend strength and acceleration.
%B (Bollinger) Z-score indicates how close price is to the upper or lower volatility envelope.
Stochastic K Z-score gives a sense of how high or low price is relative to its recent range.
Volume Z-score shows when trading activity is unusually high or low.
ATR Z-score gives a read on volatility, showing if price movement is expanding or contracting.
Sharpe Z-score measures reward-to-risk performance, useful for evaluating trend quality.
Omega Z-score looks at the ratio of good returns to bad ones, offering a more nuanced view of efficiency.
By normalizing each of these using Z-scores and averaging only the ones you turn on, the script creates a flexible, balanced view of the market’s statistical stretch.
Calculations
The core formula is the standard Z-score:
Z = (current value - average) / standard deviation
Every indicator uses this formula after it’s calculated using your chosen settings. For example, RSI is first calculated as usual, then its Z-score is calculated over your selected lookback period. The script does this for every indicator you enable. Then it averages those Z-scores together to create a single value: zAvg. That value is plotted and used to generate visual cues, signals, table values, background color changes, and candle coloring.
Sequence
Each selected indicator is calculated using your custom input lengths.
The Z-score of each indicator is computed using the shared lookback period.
All active Z-scores are added up and averaged.
The resulting zAvg value is plotted as a line.
Signal conditions check if zAvg crosses user-defined thresholds (default: ±2).
If enabled, the script plots buy/sell signal labels at those crossover points.
The candle color is updated using your selected mode (heatmap or signal-based).
If extreme Z-scores are reached, background highlighting is applied.
A live table updates with each individual Z-score so you know what’s driving the signal.
Features
This script isn’t just about stats—it’s about making them usable in real time. Every feature has a clear reason to exist, and they’re all there to give you a better read on market conditions.
1. Universal Z-Score Line
This is your primary reference. It reflects the average Z-score across all selected indicators. The line updates live and is color-coded to show how far it is from neutral. The further it gets from 0, the brighter the color becomes—cyan for deeply oversold conditions, magenta for overbought. This gives you instant feedback on how statistically “hot” or “cold” the market is, without needing to read any numbers.
2. Signal Labels (“𝓤𝓹” and “𝓓𝓸𝔀𝓷”)
When the average Z-score drops below your lower bound, you’ll see a "𝓤𝓹" label below the bar, suggesting potential bullish reversal conditions. When it rises above the upper bound, a "𝓓𝓸𝔀𝓷" label is shown above the bar—indicating possible bearish exhaustion. These labels are visually clear and minimal so they don’t clutter your chart. They're based on clear crossover logic and do not repaint.
3. Real-Time Z-Score Table
The table shows each indicator's individual Z-score and the final average. It updates every bar, giving you a transparent breakdown of what’s happening under the hood. If the market is showing an extreme average score, this table helps you pinpoint which indicators are contributing the most—so you’re not just guessing where the pressure is coming from.
4. Bar Coloring Modes
You can choose from three modes:
None: Keeps your candles clean and untouched.
Heat: Applies a smooth gradient color based on Z-score intensity. As conditions become more extreme, candle color transitions from neutral to either cyan (bullish pressure) or magenta (bearish pressure).
Latest Signal: Applies hard coloring based on the most recent signal—greenish for a buy, purple for a sell. This mode is great for tracking market state at a glance without relying on a gradient.
Every part of the candle is colored—body, wick, and border—for full visibility.
5. Background Highlighting
When zAvg enters an extreme zone (typically above +2 or below -2), the background shifts color to reflect the market’s intensity. These changes aren’t overwhelming—they’re light fills that act as ambient warnings, helping you stay aware of when price might be reaching a tipping point.
6. Customizable Zone Lines and Fills
You can define what counts as neutral, overbought, and oversold using manual inputs. Horizontal lines show your thresholds, and shaded regions highlight the most extreme zones (+2 to +3 and -2 to -3). These lines give you visual structure to understand where price currently stands in relation to your personal reversal model.
7. Modular Indicator Control
You don’t have to use all the indicators. You can enable or disable any of the 12 with a simple checkbox. This means you can build your own “blend” of market context—maybe you only care about RSI, price, and volume. Or maybe you want everything on. The script adapts accordingly, only averaging what you select.
8. Fully Customizable Sensitivity and Lengths
You can adjust the Z-score lookback length globally (default 100), and tweak individual indicator lengths separately. This lets you tune the indicator’s responsiveness to suit your trading style—slower for longer swings, faster for scalping.
9. Clean Integration with Any Chart Layout
All visual elements are designed to be informative without taking over your chart. The coloring is soft but clear, the labels are readable without being huge, and you can turn off any feature you don’t need. The indicator can work as a full dashboard or as a simple line with a couple of alerts—it’s up to you.
10. Precise, Real-Time Signal Logic
The crossover logic for signals is exact and only fires when the Z-score moves across your defined boundary. No estimation, no delay. Everything is calculated based on current and previous bar data, and nothing repaints or back-adjusts.
Conclusion
The Universal Z-Score Valuation indicator is a tool for traders who want a clear, unbiased way to detect overextension. Instead of relying on a single signal, you get a composite of several market perspectives—momentum, volatility, volume, and more—all standardized into a single view. The script gives you the freedom to control the logic, the visuals, and the components. Whether you use it as a confirmation tool or a primary signal source, it’s designed to give you clarity when markets become chaotic.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for research and educational use only. It does not constitute financial advice or guarantees of performance. All trading involves risk, and users should test any strategy thoroughly before applying it to live markets. Use this tool at your own discretion.
KST Strategy [Skyrexio]Overview
KST Strategy leverages Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator in conjunction with the Williams Alligator and Moving average to obtain the high probability setups. KST is used for for having the high probability to enter in the direction of a current trend when momentum is rising, Alligator is used as a short term trend filter, while Moving average approximates the long term trend and allows trades only in its direction. Also strategy has the additional optional filter on Choppiness Index which does not allow trades if market is choppy, above the user-specified threshold. Strategy has the user specified take profit and stop-loss numbers, but multiplied by Average True Range (ATR) value on the moment when trade is open. The strategy opens only long trades.
Unique Features
ATR based stop-loss and take profit. Instead of fixed take profit and stop-loss percentage strategy utilizes user chosen numbers multiplied by ATR for its calculation.
Configurable Trading Periods. Users can tailor the strategy to specific market windows, adapting to different market conditions.
Optional Choppiness Index filter. Strategy allows to choose if it will use the filter trades with Choppiness Index and set up its threshold.
Methodology
The strategy opens long trade when the following price met the conditions:
Close price is above the Alligator's jaw line
Close price is above the filtering Moving average
KST line of Know Sure Thing indicator shall cross over its signal line (details in justification of methodology)
If the Choppiness Index filter is enabled its value shall be less than user defined threshold
When the long trade is executed algorithm defines the stop-loss level as the low minus user defined number, multiplied by ATR at the trade open candle. Also it defines take profit with close price plus user defined number, multiplied by ATR at the trade open candle. While trade is in progress, if high price on any candle above the calculated take profit level or low price is below the calculated stop loss level, trade is closed.
Strategy settings
In the inputs window user can setup the following strategy settings:
ATR Stop Loss (by default = 1.5, number of ATRs to calculate stop-loss level)
ATR Take Profit (by default = 3.5, number of ATRs to calculate take profit level)
Filter MA Type (by default = Least Squares MA, type of moving average which is used for filter MA)
Filter MA Length (by default = 200, length for filter MA calculation)
Enable Choppiness Index Filter (by default = true, setting to choose the optional filtering using Choppiness index)
Choppiness Index Threshold (by default = 50, Choppiness Index threshold, its value shall be below it to allow trades execution)
Choppiness Index Length (by default = 14, length used in Choppiness index calculation)
KST ROC Length #1 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST ROC Length #2 (by default = 15, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST ROC Length #3 (by default = 20, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST ROC Length #4 (by default = 30, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST SMA Length #1 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST SMA Length #2 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST SMA Length #3 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST SMA Length #4 (by default = 15, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST Signal Line Length (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
User can choose the optimal parameters during backtesting on certain price chart.
Justification of Methodology
Before understanding why this particular combination of indicator has been chosen let's briefly explain what is KST, Williams Alligator, Moving Average, ATR and Choppiness Index.
The KST (Know Sure Thing) is a momentum oscillator developed by Martin Pring. It combines multiple Rate of Change (ROC) values, smoothed over different timeframes, to identify trend direction and momentum strength. First of all, what is ROC? ROC (Rate of Change) is a momentum indicator that measures the percentage change in price between the current price and the price a set number of periods ago.
ROC = 100 * (Current Price - Price N Periods Ago) / Price N Periods Ago
In our case N is the KST ROC Length inputs from settings, here we will calculate 4 different ROCs to obtain KST value:
KST = ROC1_smooth × 1 + ROC2_smooth × 2 + ROC3_smooth × 3 + ROC4_smooth × 4
ROC1 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #1), smoothed by KST SMA Length #1,
ROC2 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #2), smoothed by KST SMA Length #2,
ROC3 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #3), smoothed by KST SMA Length #3,
ROC4 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #4), smoothed by KST SMA Length #4
Also for this indicator the signal line is calculated:
Signal = SMA(KST, KST Signal Line Length)
When the KST line rises, it indicates increasing momentum and suggests that an upward trend may be developing. Conversely, when the KST line declines, it reflects weakening momentum and a potential downward trend. A crossover of the KST line above its signal line is considered a buy signal, while a crossover below the signal line is viewed as a sell signal. If the KST stays above zero, it indicates overall bullish momentum; if it remains below zero, it points to bearish momentum. The KST indicator smooths momentum across multiple timeframes, helping to reduce noise and provide clearer signals for medium- to long-term trends.
Next, let’s discuss the short-term trend filter, which combines the Williams Alligator and Williams Fractals. Williams Alligator
Developed by Bill Williams, the Alligator is a technical indicator that identifies trends and potential market reversals. It consists of three smoothed moving averages:
Jaw (Blue Line): The slowest of the three, based on a 13-period smoothed moving average shifted 8 bars ahead.
Teeth (Red Line): The medium-speed line, derived from an 8-period smoothed moving average shifted 5 bars forward.
Lips (Green Line): The fastest line, calculated using a 5-period smoothed moving average shifted 3 bars forward.
When the lines diverge and align in order, the "Alligator" is "awake," signaling a strong trend. When the lines overlap or intertwine, the "Alligator" is "asleep," indicating a range-bound or sideways market. This indicator helps traders determine when to enter or avoid trades.
The next indicator is Moving Average. It has a lot of different types which can be chosen to filter trades and the Least Squares MA is used by default settings. Let's briefly explain what is it.
The Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) — also known as Linear Regression Moving Average — is a trend-following indicator that uses the least squares method to fit a straight line to the price data over a given period, then plots the value of that line at the most recent point. It draws the best-fitting straight line through the past N prices (using linear regression), and then takes the endpoint of that line as the value of the moving average for that bar. The LSMA aims to reduce lag and highlight the current trend more accurately than traditional moving averages like SMA or EMA.
Key Features:
It reacts faster to price changes than most moving averages.
It is smoother and less noisy than short-term EMAs.
It can be used to identify trend direction, momentum, and potential reversal points.
ATR (Average True Range) is a volatility indicator that measures how much an asset typically moves during a given period. It was introduced by J. Welles Wilder and is widely used to assess market volatility, not direction.
To calculate it first of all we need to get True Range (TR), this is the greatest value among:
High - Low
abs(High - Previous Close)
abs(Low - Previous Close)
ATR = MA(TR, n) , where n is number of periods for moving average, in our case equals 14.
ATR shows how much an asset moves on average per candle/bar. A higher ATR means more volatility; a lower ATR means a calmer market.
The Choppiness Index is a technical indicator that quantifies whether the market is trending or choppy (sideways). It doesn't indicate trend direction — only the strength or weakness of a trend. Higher Choppiness Index usually approximates the sideways market, while its low value tells us that there is a high probability of a trend.
Choppiness Index = 100 × log10(ΣATR(n) / (MaxHigh(n) - MinLow(n))) / log10(n)
where:
ΣATR(n) = sum of the Average True Range over n periods
MaxHigh(n) = highest high over n periods
MinLow(n) = lowest low over n periods
log10 = base-10 logarithm
Now let's understand how these indicators work in conjunction and why they were chosen for this strategy. KST indicator approximates current momentum, when it is rising and KST line crosses over the signal line there is high probability that short term trend is reversing to the upside and strategy allows to take part in this potential move. Alligator's jaw (blue) line is used as an approximation of a short term trend, taking trades only above it we want to avoid trading against trend to increase probability that long trade is going to be winning.
Almost the same for Moving Average, but it approximates the long term trend, this is just the additional filter. If we trade in the direction of the long term trend we increase probability that higher risk to reward trade will hit the take profit. Choppiness index is the optional filter, but if it turned on it is used for approximating if now market is in sideways or in trend. On the range bounded market the potential moves are restricted. We want to decrease probability opening trades in such condition avoiding trades if this index is above threshold value.
When trade is open script sets the stop loss and take profit targets. ATR approximates the current volatility, so we can make a decision when to exit a trade based on current market condition, it can increase the probability that strategy will avoid the excessive stop loss hits, but anyway user can setup how many ATRs to use as a stop loss and take profit target. As was said in the Methodology stop loss level is obtained by subtracting number of ATRs from trade opening candle low, while take profit by adding to this candle's close.
Backtest Results
Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2023.01.01 - 2025.05.01. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions.
Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks.
Initial capital: 10000 USDT
Percent of capital used in every trade: 60%
Maximum Single Position Loss: -5.53%
Maximum Single Profit: +8.35%
Net Profit: +5175.20 USDT (+51.75%)
Total Trades: 120 (56.67% win rate)
Profit Factor: 1.747
Maximum Accumulated Loss: 1039.89 USDT (-9.1%)
Average Profit per Trade: 43.13 USDT (+0.6%)
Average Trade Duration: 27 hours
These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters.
How to Use
Add the script to favorites for easy access.
Apply to the desired timeframe and chart (optimal performance observed on 1h BTC/USDT).
Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu.
Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrexio commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation.
VWAP Deviation Channels with Probability (Lite)VWAP Deviation Channels with Probability (Lite)
Version 1.2
Overview
This indicator is a powerful tool for intraday traders, designed to identify high-probability areas of support and resistance. It plots the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) as a central "value" line and then draws statistically-based deviation channels around it.
Its unique feature is a dynamic probability engine that analyzes thousands of historical price bars to calculate and display the real-time likelihood of the price touching each of these deviation levels. This provides a quantifiable edge for making trading decisions.
Core Concepts Explained
This indicator is built on three key concepts:
The VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price): The dotted midline of the channels is the session VWAP. Unlike a Simple Moving Average (SMA) which only considers price, the VWAP incorporates volume into its calculation. This makes it a much more significant benchmark, as it represents the true average price where the most business has been transacted during the day. It's heavily used by institutional traders, which is why price often reacts strongly to it.
Standard Deviation Channels: The channels above and below the VWAP are based on standard deviations. Standard deviation is a statistical measure of volatility.
- Wide Bands: When the channels are wide, it signifies high volatility.
- Narrow Bands: When the channels are tight and narrow, it signifies low volatility and
consolidation (a "squeeze").
The Conditional Probability Engine: This is the heart of the indicator. For every deviation level, the script displays a percentage. This percentage answers a very specific question:
"Based on thousands of previous bars, when the last candle had a certain momentum (bullish or bearish), what was the historical probability that the price would touch this specific level?"
The probabilities are calculated separately depending on whether the previous candle was green (bullish) or red (bearish). This provides a nuanced, momentum-based edge. The level with the highest probability is highlighted, acting as a "price magnet."
How to Use This Indicator
Recommended Timeframes:
This indicator is designed specifically for intraday trading. It works best on timeframes like the 1-minute, 5-minute, and 15-minute charts. It will not display correctly on daily or higher timeframes.
Recommended Trading Strategy: Mean Reversion
The primary strategy for this indicator is "Mean Reversion." The core idea is that as the price stretches to extreme levels far away from the VWAP (the "mean"), it is statistically more likely to "snap back" toward it.
Here is a step-by-step guide to trading this setup:
1. Identify the Extreme: Wait for the price to push into one of the outer deviation bands (e.g., the -2, -3, or -4 bands for a buy setup, or the +2, +3, or +4 bands for a sell setup).
2. Look for the High-Probability Zone: Pay close attention to the highlighted probability label. This is the level that has historically acted as the strongest magnet for price. A touch of this level represents a high-probability area for a potential reversal.
3. Wait for Confirmation: Do not enter a trade just because the price has touched a band. Wait for a confirmation candle that shows momentum is shifting.
- For a Buy: Look for a strong bullish candle (e.g., a green engulfing candle or a hammer/pin
bar) to form at the lower bands.
- For a Sell: Look for a strong bearish candle (e.g., a red engulfing candle or a shooting star)
to form at the upper bands.
Define Your Exit:
- Take Profit: A logical primary target for a mean reversion trade is the VWAP (midLine).
- Stop Loss: A logical place for a stop-loss is just outside the next deviation band. For
example, if you enter a long trade at the -3 band, your stop loss could be placed just
below the -4 band.
Disclaimer: This indicator is a tool for analysis and should not be considered a standalone trading system. Trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always use this indicator in conjunction with other forms of analysis and sound risk management practices.
