inflection point!!!! 休息了一趟回來 覺得不能再發懶了
Be lazy after my Japan trip, feeling can’t be lazy anymore
先說總結
回到我之前提過的理論
現在很有可能是要走1964～1984這段時期
當然依照時間壓縮的關係
當初的20年可能會被壓縮到1/2以上
大約是5～10年間
但過程會極為類似
如果理論成立
短期內很難進入真牛市
或許會突破新高（選舉前）
但是會被拉回
而且要注意的是高點不過
但低點會破新低
而依照過往經驗
選前一年的下半年股市統計上是跌多
過年後才開始轉強
雖然目前很多分析師是認為漲多回檔
但我個人是認為即將回歸熊市
到明年5月再重啟小牛
而這點在3大指數上週期吻合
個人認為中段期要多留意
當然這只是一個大方向的推測
實際操作上有什麼訊號或型態都按照紀律進行即可
Let's start with a summary:
Returning to the theory I mentioned earlier, it's highly likely that we're entering the period between 1964 and 1984. Of course, due to time compression, the initial 20 years might be compressed to over half, roughly 5 to 10 years. However, the process will be very similar.
If the theory holds true, it's unlikely for us to enter a true bull market in the short term. We might surpass the previous highs (before the elections), but then be pulled back. Also, note that the highs won't go beyond, but the lows might break new lows.
Based on historical experiences, the second half of the year before the election tends to see more declines in the stock market. The strength usually starts after the Chinese New Year. Although many analysts believe in a rise followed by a correction, I personally think we're about to return to a bear market and will likely initiate a minor bull run around May next year.
This aligns cyclically with the three major indexes. In my opinion, the mid-term period needs more attention.
Of course, this is just a general directional speculation. In actual trading, follow any signals or patterns with discipline.
DJI
如預期過3不到2
目前看起來有點支撐注意34727是否會有壓力
另外是否能回到3以上才是重點
現在要擔心是否會牛市結束回熊
簡易抓 最壞情況看紫色及藍色線
會這樣抓建立在AB=CD 及時間週期
如果真的回熊 目標明年5月才會再反小牛進入選舉行情
As anticipated, we haven't reached 3 yet. Currently, there seems to be some support, watch if 34,727 faces resistance. Also, whether it can climb back above 3 is the key point.
Now, we need to worry about whether the bull market ends and returns to a bear market. A simple approach is to consider the worst-case scenario, indicated by the purple and blue lines. This approach is based on AB=CD and time cycles.
If we really enter a bear market, the target is to see a minor bull run again around May next year during the election period.
NDQ
跟DJI走勢一樣
注意點數13841這個區間
但大致上等同 DJI
Similar to DJI's trend, watch the level at 13,841. But overall, it's roughly equivalent to DJI.
SPX
這個時間點及範圍抓的最準 (今年3月10號的預估)
或許是因為我重心大部分都是分析SPX
禮拜五當日有反彈
要觀察下禮拜是否能突破區間有效站穩
但以目前整體形勢或許有困難
對於SPX 4457~4541 這個區間要特別注意
只要沒有有效突破
市場沒有看多及反轉的機會
對我個人而言 真正定義為牛市的轉折線是1
This timing and range have been the most accurate (predicted on March 10th this year), perhaps because my focus is mostly on analyzing SPX. There was a bounce on Friday. We'll need to observe next week whether it can break the range and hold steady. Given the current situation, it might be challenging.
For SPX, the range of 4457 to 4541 requires special attention. As long as there's no effective breakthrough, the market won't have a chance to turn bullish or reverse.
For me personally, the true turning point defining the transition to a bear market is at 1.
BTC
之前畫的通道破了以後直接來一根殺盤
現在要關注的是能否回到26500以上
如果續跌不能守住25596
目標先看21500左右
After the channel I drew broke, there was an aggressive drop. Now, we need to focus on whether it can return above 26,500. If the decline continues and can't hold at 25,596, the target is around 21,500.
