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BTC Monkey Jump again今天早上一些朋友問我昨天的buy in 我有沒有買進 一直回答有點累 之間發布一篇 順便把中間的位置也標記出來 也細部分解一下我的作法 因為是半夜 所以我沒有做 但是如果我是醒著 我會買進 但是很快就出了 This morning, some friends asked if I bought in on yesterday’s buy-in. I’ve been a bit tired from answering repeatedly. In between, I posted an update and also marked the intermediate positions. I’ll break down my approach in detail. Since it was the middle of the night, I didn’t trade. But if I had been awake, I would have bought in, though I would have exited quickly. 主要原因是量 這個量是不行的 起漲量放的不夠大 而最大量這跟也沒有亮點 另外 CVD 這邊也是 (我自己有畫輔助線） 沒有有效突破 RSI 不用說應該很明顯 所以當下我要不是收定後馬上出 不然我就是拉高止損到有盈利範圍 不過依照現在來看 我應該是在POE位置就放手了 The main reason is the volume. The volume is insufficient. The initial volume wasn’t big enough, and the maximum volume didn’t have any highlights. Additionally, the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) also didn’t show a valid breakout (I’ve drawn auxiliary lines myself). The RSI (Relative Strength Index) should be quite obvious. So, at that moment, if I hadn’t exited immediately after the stop, I would have raised the stop-loss to a profitable range. However, based on the current situation, I probably would have let go around the POE (Point of Equilibrium) position. 也因為今天這個情況的關係 以及朋友問我 讓我想到我以前畫線時 慣用的標記 陰陽線 （Ying Yang) 因為通常底部也是起漲的開始 昨天註明的SL2 也是底部 反手做多 短線也是獲利的好時機 或許我應該改回 陰陽線的標記方式 Anyways 這兩天有時間再來想想怎麼畫清楚點 回到盤面 這週末應該還是看跌為主 但是下禮拜有機會轉多 我標記了 上方有個 陰陽線 H 這個地方如果能突破站穩2到3天 那趨勢會迎來大家希望的牛 不過同樣的 如果不能 要小心另一個大幅度的調整 另外我也框了一些 我注意的地方 希望對你們有幫助 Also, due to today's situation and friends’ questions, it reminded me of the way I used to mark charts with Yin-Yang lines (陰陽線). Usually, the bottom is also the start of a rise. The SL2 (Stop-Loss 2) marked yesterday was also at the bottom. Going long at that point was a good short-term profit opportunity. Maybe I should revert to using the Yin-Yang line marking method. Anyways, I’ll think more about how to make the charts clearer when I have time in the next couple of days. Back to the market, This weekend, the outlook should remain bearish, but next week there might be a chance for a bullish reversal. I’ve marked an area with a Yin-Yang H. If this area can break through and stabilize for 2 to 3 days, the trend might shift to the bullish phase that everyone hopes for. However, if it doesn’t, be cautious of another significant correction. Additionally, I’ve outlined some areas of interest. I hope this helps you.
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BTC 牛在哪? Where's the bull 上篇的結尾 Last Post “ 接下來原則上 我們剩下 1.我之前偏向的紫色（紅色） 2.綠色 (現在的位置) 3.藍色 有鑑于綠色目前看起來有機會 我也另外把這個劇本的目標放上來 時間點沒錯剛好就是11月大選前 這也是為什麼我會在今天買進的原因之一 當然 我也會關注是否會在下探 走到紫色及藍色的劇本內 看下圖 你就會懂我的顧忌 另外 主圖這邊 我提供一個有可能出現的走勢 當然 這個只是一個臆測 但是依照時間推算 很有可能發生 Next, we are left with: 1 The purple (red) path I previously favored 2 The green path (current position) 3 The blue path Given that the green path currently seems promising, I have also included the target for this scenario. The timing is just right before the November election, which is one of the reasons I bought in today. Of course, I will also be watching for potential downturns into the purple and blue scenarios. Looking at the chart below, you will understand my concerns: Additionally, in the main chart here, I am providing a possible trajectory that might occur. Of course, this is just speculation, but based on the time calculation, it is very likely to happen. ” 很幸運 我在25號出清了 我手上所有的Crypto 先談談為什麼我會出清 第一 我認為時間未滿足 第二 我判斷會有第二隻腳 第三 外部原因 美股跟匯率 另外 我觀察到很多others 原則上都是上漲但是量沒有出來 甚至都是背離的情況 所以我判斷 這次跌幅不算滿足 好一點的情況是做第二隻腳 但是這隻腳的深淺 要再做觀察 54000～55000 是一個高腳區間 但我比較喜歡跌破前低 49000 在做收回 或許可以去嘗試摸通道底部 這樣對於莊家來說 籌碼也乾淨 當然 紫色跟藍色規劃我沒有忘記 這波的下跌 如果我們取6/7～7/5來計算 那大約是在 1.13～1.27之間 如果8/25是高點 那是否就非常有可能會打到紫色預測點（1.13） 反正這邊是一個可見的機會點 列入觀察 Lucky, I cleaned all of my crypto holdings on the 25th. Let me explain why I decided to liquidate: 1 I believe the timing wasn't right. 2 I anticipated there would be a second leg down. 3 External factors such as the U.S. stock market and exchange rates. Additionally, I noticed that many other assets have generally been rising, but the volume hasn't picked up, and there are even cases of divergence. So I concluded that the current decline hasn't fully satisfied its potential. A better scenario would be a second leg down, but the depth of this leg still needs to be observed. The range of 54,000 to 55,000 is a high area, but I would prefer a drop below the previous low of 49,000 for a rebound. It might be worth trying to touch the bottom of the channel, which would clean up the position for the market makers. Of course, I haven't forgotten about the purple and blue scenarios. If we calculate the recent drop from June 7 to July 5, it falls between 1.13 and 1.27. If August 25 was the high, it is very likely that it will reach the purple forecast point (1.13). This is a visible opportunity and worth observing. 接下來我的簡易計畫有兩個部分 一個是 右側 一個左側 供參考 右側就是突破Buy-in (A) 即下單買進 止損 SL 1 (A) 及 SL ALL （A） 這個原則上偏向短單 除非量能有出來 但是注意到紫色框的部分就要考慮止盈或拉高止損到有盈利的位置 左側當然就是預計會續跌到紫色區域 這個我會先掛單 但是一樣看情況更動 其他掛單比較偏短線操作的我就不細說 但是原則上就是上面提到第二隻腳的位置 以及通道邊緣 2 simple plan for now 1 The right side, it involves breaking through the Buy-in (A) and placing a buy order. The stop-loss is set at SL 1 (A) and SL ALL (A). This approach is generally for short trades unless the volume increases. However, if you notice the purple box area, you should consider taking profits or raising the stop-loss to a profitable position. 2 The left side I anticipate further declines to the purple area. I will place limit orders for this but will adjust based on the situation. I won’t go into detail about other limit orders that are more short-term, but generally, they relate to the second leg position mentioned above and the channel edges.
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27/8 BTC日內短線分析Furseals🦭小日記🧾 27/8 BTC日內短線分析 昨天測試完63200支撐反彈力度太弱就開始陰跌了 這裏基本上要等下個支撐了昨天說的61700去決定之後的去向 穩健可以觀察有沒有站穩或跌破，去開始佈局多空 跌破後基本上反彈做空~ 今天關注64000-64600壓力，61500-62000支撐 -------------------------------------------------------- 操作思路 61500-62000輕倉短多 -------------------------------------------------------- 上方壓力:63200,64000,65500 下方支撐:61700,60000,58750 分批抄底現貨價:55000,52000，49600，46200，42600 -------------------------------------------------------- Furseals觀點僅供參考,不構成任何投資建議
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26/8 BTC日內短線分析Furseals🦭小日記🧾 26/8 BTC日內短線分析 自從拉上來之後繼續高位震盪，繼續洗一些空軍 後續看回調到哪裏，強勢大概到63200支撐住就反彈上去 如比較關鍵的位置就在61700，這裏是多空分割位 穩健可以觀察有沒有站穩或跌破，去開始佈局多空 今天關注65400-66000壓力，61500-62000支撐 -------------------------------------------------------- 操作思路 63000-62800輕倉短多 61500-62000短多 -------------------------------------------------------- 上方壓力:65500,67250,68500 下方支撐:63200,61700,60000 分批抄底現貨價:55000,52000，49600，46200，42600 -------------------------------------------------------- Furseals觀點僅供參考,不構成任何投資建議
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22/8 BTC日內短線分析Furseals🦭小日記🧾 22/8 BTC日內短線分析 近期還是持續震盪，4小時MACD量能還是比較少的 暫時方向不明顯，可以等待到震盪區間壓力支撐博弈一下 現時在60000上方，看看有沒有機會向上測試前高61700-62500 如關鍵支撐壓力沒什麼反應，要小心突破風險 如果有機會繼續向下測試補少量現貨就可以了 今天關注61700-62500壓力，56700-57400支撐 -------------------------------------------------------- 操作思路 61700-62700輕倉短空 57000-56300輕倉短多 -------------------------------------------------------- 上方壓力:60865,61700,62700 下方支撐:60000,58700,57750 分批抄底現貨價:49500,46400，42600 -------------------------------------------------------- Furseals觀點僅供參考,不構成任何投資建議
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8/22 交易計劃觀點 昨日21號，猴盤上下洗，切勿衝動，不然一定是止損出場，當下現在也一樣是還沒結束，不躁進 目前還在通道與支撐阻力之間，持續關注，可待行情比較明朗再入場 交易計劃1 阻力位 59950~59705，還上不去的話，可以考慮做空，目標 58800~58620 交易計劃2 跌破通道下軌則做空，目標58800~58620 交易計劃3 突破上軌且動能夠大的話，嘗試在60500抓反轉做空，因為這邊有訂單有流動性，目標60185~60050
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13/8 BTC日內短線分析Furseals🦭小日記🧾 13/8 BTC日內短線分析 昨晚上下插針後維持在59000附近，暫時偏弱勢震盪 後續看看能不能突破60000，否則有機會繼續下探去測試55000附近 震盪壓力支撐可以輕微博弈一下 今天關注60000-60900壓力，56700-57800支撐 -------------------------------------------------------- 操作思路 60100-60800輕倉短空 57600-58100輕倉短多 56800-56200短多 -------------------------------------------------------- 上方壓力:60000,60850,61700 下方支撐:58700,57750,65700 分批抄底現貨價:49500,46400，42600 -------------------------------------------------------- Furseals觀點僅供參考,不構成任何投資建議
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7/8 BTC日內短線分析Furseals🦭小日記🧾 7/8 BTC日內短線分析 自從跌到48900就開始反彈，目前還是緩慢上漲中量能也逐漸衰退 大概還會要再向下二探50000附近，首先關注54950支撐如破了有瀑布就要注意了 暫時中間位置建議觀望 今天關注58770-59650壓力，54360-54950支撐 57800以上可以輕倉嘗試空 52000以下可以開始佈局長線多 -------------------------------------------------------- 操作思路 58770-59650輕倉短空 52500-53200輕倉短多 50000-49000短多 -------------------------------------------------------- 上方壓力:57800,58750,59360 下方支撐:54950,53522,52000 分批抄底現貨價:49500,46400，42600 -------------------------------------------------------- Furseals觀點僅供參考,不構成任何投資建議
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BTC Bear Attack? 這個是之前的規劃 現在來複習一下 上次最後一段我提到 ”目前規劃大致上有4個路徑規格 可以參考 而機率上 紫色路徑的機率很高 原因是這個路徑符合了4個測量方式 但是也因為太過符合分析 是否有可能是一個陷阱？ 不管如何依然按照紀律執行即可 而現在有沒有機會只是超跌 馬上要進行反轉 這個可能性不能說沒有 但是需要時間去消化情緒 個人是有在今天進場買入 主要是因為這邊算是一個潛在反轉區 但是如果情況持續惡化或者是無法有效突破下降趨勢線（橘色） 我會在跌破下降通道後暫時離場避險 “ 回到圖面上 我在7-4號 買入後 隔日又殺一根 後開始反彈 這時我觀察的是黃色及白色預測線 但是量能上明顯對不上 所以我很幸運的在進入三角區間後 設立了一個停損位置 7-25號的低點 到此 我們可以先拿掉黃白色 This was the previous plan. Let's review it now. In the last section, I mentioned: "Currently, there are roughly four path scenarios to consider. Statistically, the probability of the purple path is high because it matches four measurement methods. However, because it fits the analysis too well, could it be a trap? Regardless, we should still execute according to discipline. Is there a chance that this is just an overshoot and a reversal is imminent? This possibility cannot be ruled out, but it will take time to digest the sentiment. Personally, I entered the market today because this is considered a potential reversal area. However, if the situation continues to deteriorate or if it fails to effectively break through the descending trendline (orange), I will temporarily exit to hedge when it breaks below the descending channel. " Back to the chart: On 7/4, after I bought in, there was another drop the next day, followed by a rebound. At this point, I was observing the yellow and white prediction lines, but the volume clearly did not match. So I was fortunate enough to set a stop-loss position at the low point of 7/25 after entering the triangle zone. At this point, we can remove the yellow and white lines. 接下來原則上 我們剩下 1.我之前偏向的紫色（紅色） 2.綠色 (現在的位置) 3.藍色 有鑑于綠色目前看起來有機會 我也另外把這個劇本的目標放上來 時間點沒錯剛好就是11月大選前 這也是為什麼我會在今天買進的原因之一 當然 我也會關注是否會在下探 走到紫色及藍色的劇本內 看下圖 你就會懂我的顧忌 Next, we are left with: 1 The purple (red) path I previously favored 2 The green path (current position) 3 The blue path Given that the green path currently seems promising, I have also included the target for this scenario. The timing is just right before the November election, which is one of the reasons I bought in today. Of course, I will also be watching for potential downturns into the purple and blue scenarios. Looking at the chart below, you will understand my concerns: 另外 主圖這邊 我提供一個有可能出現的走勢 當然 這個只是一個臆測 但是依照時間推算 很有可能發生 Additionally, in the main chart here, I am providing a possible trajectory that might occur. Of course, this is just speculation, but based on the time calculation, it is very likely to happen.
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