IWM交易想法
IWM buy point for rest of Q1 / IWM的Q1剩餘買點
I'm not certain if the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates in March; currently, the probability is around 50%, and I'm hesitant to make a prediction. According to Tom Lee's forecast, if the IWM ends above 300 by the end of 2024, there could be a potential increase of over 50%. I'm considering investing 15% of my portfolio in TNA to potentially gain 150% or more, especially if the price follows a consistent upward trajectory. Given the significantly different macroeconomic environment compared to 2023 and 2022, I believe that the IWM is unlikely to reach a new low since 2021. My immediate goal is to enter TNA at favorable prices.
I anticipate that the IWM may revisit the 188-190 range due to a pullback in the SPX and QQQ. If the pullback is substantial or if the probability of a rate cut in March decreases, it could decline even further. I intend to purchase IWM at 188, 184, 180, and 172, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels, with each price point representing a 1/4 position. If the price does not drop as anticipated, I will consider buying during a breakout to achieve higher highs. My plan is to acquire all TNA positions before the end of March.
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我不確定三月份美聯儲是否會降息，目前機率大約是50%，我不想去打賭。根據湯姆·李的預測，如果截至2024年底IWM結束在300以上，可能會有超過50%的上升空間。我想嘗試用我的15%投資組合來賭TNA能獲得150%的收益（如果價格一直直線上漲可能會更多）。考慮到2023年和2022年的宏觀環境與眾不同，我認為自2021年以來IWM不太可能再次創造新低。我的當前任務是以合適價格進入TNA。
我認為IWM可能會因為SPX和QQQ的回調再次測試188-190，如果回調更大或三月份降息的機率降低，它可能會跌得更低。我打算在188、184、180和172加碼IWM，符合斐波那契回撤。每個價位佔1/4倉位。如果價格不會下降那麼低，我會考慮在突破時買入以實現高點。我的計劃是在三月底前購入所有TNA倉位。
