Alcoa has been trending down over the past year, as denoted by the blue trendline following its price peaks over the past 12 months or so. Over the past two days its finally broken through that line, indicating that the trend may possibly be reversing and Alcoa may rise.
In the short term if Alcoa does continue to rise, expect resistance at $10. This is an important level psychologically (double digits) as well as marking a recent peak that Alcoa was unable to break in mid December.
Volume today is already above the moving average on a strong move above the trendline. I view that (at this moment) as a good indicator that this is a for real bullish move and Alcoa is headed up. I'm still calling this neutral however, as its a one day peak so far on a trading day that is still ongoing.
A few side notes: Alcoa is divided into two major business sections which are due to split towards the second half of 2016. One half focuses on aluminum, the other on aerospace. This makes it an interesting case with regards to aluminum prices influencing a major producer of aluminum, as a large portion of its current business is no longer centered around that metal. Despite that, prices of aluminum will still influence the stock - keep that in mind.
In the short term if Alcoa does continue to rise, expect resistance at $10. This is an important level psychologically (double digits) as well as marking a recent peak that Alcoa was unable to break in mid December.
Volume today is already above the moving average on a strong move above the trendline. I view that (at this moment) as a good indicator that this is a for real bullish move and Alcoa is headed up. I'm still calling this neutral however, as its a one day peak so far on a trading day that is still ongoing.
A few side notes: Alcoa is divided into two major business sections which are due to split towards the second half of 2016. One half focuses on aluminum, the other on aerospace. This makes it an interesting case with regards to aluminum prices influencing a major producer of aluminum, as a large portion of its current business is no longer centered around that metal. Despite that, prices of aluminum will still influence the stock - keep that in mind.
