AAPL Defends Key Zone – But Is It a Bullish Trap or Baounce?

📊 GEX Daily Chart (Options Sentiment Breakdown)
Apple (AAPL) closed at $200.85, right on top of the HVL (Highest Volume Level) and slightly under the first GEX resistance zone at 202.5–204. The daily chart shows price rebounded off a strong confluence support zone, but gamma exposure suggests more chop ahead unless bulls push decisively.

GEX Structure Insights:
* 🟩 Positive GEX up to 207.5–215, with 202.5–204 acting as gamma resistance.
* 🟥 Strong put interest builds under 195 → 192.5 → 190 (–13% to –23% GEX), marking critical downside zones.
* 🧊 IVR at 27.8, IV is still low enough to build long premium trades without getting crushed by theta.

💡 Options Trade Ideas (Based on GEX):
* Bullish Breakout: If we reclaim and hold above 204, consider Jul 19 210c or 205c/215c debit spread.
* Bearish Rejection: If AAPL loses 197.5 support, look at Jul 19 195p or 200p/190p vertical spread to catch any gamma flush toward 192.
Dealer hedging likely keeps AAPL pinned between 197.5–204 unless market momentum shifts.

🕵️‍♂️ 1H Chart Breakdown (Swing & Intraday Outlook)

Zooming into the 1-hour, AAPL gave us a bullish defense at 197.5, with multiple CHoCH signals printing off the demand block. However, we’re still stuck under a short-term trendline and near a red SMC supply box around 204–207.9.

Highlights:
* ✅ CHoCH formed at demand, suggesting short-term bullish attempt.
* ⚠️ Overbought signals showing up again — MACD and BBP topping.
* 📐 Rising channel still intact unless price breaks below 198.5–197.5 again.

📈 Swing Plan:
* Long setup: Hold above 200.25 + reclaim 202.5 = possible push to 207.
* Short setup: Fail at 202.5–204 and break below 198.5 = bearish continuation to 195/192.

📊 Intraday Setup:
* AM bounce off 199.5–200 = scalp long toward 202.5.
* Rejection at 202.5 with weakness = scalp short down to 198.5 and scale out near 197.5.
Volume profile and structure say we’re in a retest phase, not confirmed breakout yet. Let price lead.

🧠 Final Thoughts
AAPL is sitting in a classic indecision zone between put support and call walls. There’s potential for a squeeze higher — but only if bulls clear 204 and hold above. Gamma compression suggests limited range unless macro volatility or sector strength gives it juice. Perfect setup for risk-defined options spreads this week.

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational use only. Always do your own research and risk assessment before trading or investing.