Market breadth indicators have been turning over for months. I'm watching SPX for one last thing before I start shorting everything. Based on a small checklist of indicators I use, I'm expecting the market to crash before the year's end.
With AAPL being the most owned stock making up large percentages of professional investors' portfolios, if the market starts dropping and panic ensues, you'll see it first in AAPL. Fundamentals don't matter during a crash, but you could point the blame on slowing growth in China (and their market crashing which could effectively lead to less discretionary income for things like iPhones which make up most of AAPL's revenue). Nonetheless, if AAPL crashed in 2012 with great fundamentals, why couldn't it do so again?
Companies' earnings have been increasing in large part due to buybacks fueled by bond issuance and low rates. Once rates begin to rise, will companies be as likely to buyback stock? Will earnings begin to suffer?
If China's market continues it's plummet and their economy starts to suffer, what impact will that have on our economy?
With oil prices being so low, when companies' hedges begin to expire, how many more people will be laid off and what effect will this have on our economy?
The easy money's been made in AAPL. Now is the time to get out.
With AAPL being the most owned stock making up large percentages of professional investors' portfolios, if the market starts dropping and panic ensues, you'll see it first in AAPL. Fundamentals don't matter during a crash, but you could point the blame on slowing growth in China (and their market crashing which could effectively lead to less discretionary income for things like iPhones which make up most of AAPL's revenue). Nonetheless, if AAPL crashed in 2012 with great fundamentals, why couldn't it do so again?
Companies' earnings have been increasing in large part due to buybacks fueled by bond issuance and low rates. Once rates begin to rise, will companies be as likely to buyback stock? Will earnings begin to suffer?
If China's market continues it's plummet and their economy starts to suffer, what impact will that have on our economy?
With oil prices being so low, when companies' hedges begin to expire, how many more people will be laid off and what effect will this have on our economy?
The easy money's been made in AAPL. Now is the time to get out.