已更新

AMD - PICKING THE TOP / MARKET TOP / MARKET CRASH PREP

1. I would think that picking the top on this one, would be a #1 priority.

2. I think this top will be much higher.

3. Some all calling for January consolidation, I think we go straight up.

4. I think the Trump Effect, and easy money, are taking us much higher.

Just ask Robert Shiller. Smart Guy.

cnbc.com/2019/12/22/robert-shiller-trump-effect-could-drive-record-rally-through-2020.html

5. 2001 and 2006 are irrelevant charting points for AMD. Fundamentals are not the same.

6. Earnings is coming. Many believe that will be the catalyst for selling. Semis and earnings as follows:

1. NVDA – Feb 13
2. AMD – Jan 28
3. MU – Dec 18
4. XLNX – Jan 22
5. TSM – 16 Jan *** NEXT
6. INTC – 23 Jan
7. AMAT – 13 Feb
8. AVGO – Mar 12
9. LRCX – 22 Jan
10. KLAC – 28 Jan
11. MRVL – 05 Mar
12. ON – 31 Jan
13. QCOM – 29 Jan
14. STM – 23 Jan
15. TXN – 22 Jan

7. I am thinking that earnings and the lying guidance that people like INTC are going to give, will drive us higher. Next on tap is:

TXN - 22 Jan (Doesn't count)

INTC - 23 Jan (Counts a lot)

Let us see how the market responds to INTC, that will be quite something. Will go higher til earnings.

8. Investors are scared to death of the market top. This is good. People aren't buying puts, so not sure what this is about.

9. #8 This is common knowledge.

0. People are frustratingly trying to trade the way we traded when Trump was tweeting us to death.

1. Market is trading differently now.

2. Dip buying (when the dips come), and consolidation are the theme. We consolidated most of this year on AMD to one degree or another.

3. $46 was resistance and can become support.

4. $46 will be a launching point. I would think loading the boat on a breakout makes sense.

5. If you are trying to catch the top, I would suggest you do it with shares in your pocket. Here is an idea:

A. Buy some AMD shares tomorrow and incrementally increase your position to your target at $46.
B. Sell some CALLS if we get into the $50 - $55 range.
C. Marry that stock with the FEB 21 PUT at $46, to protect your $2 profit, and use your profit to Marry the position for free.
D. Wait until the stock price rises enough to $50 plus and you can sell your stock where you like, you can also wait for a reversal and have just your PUTS on the way down.
E. ROLL the Married PUT at $1 increments using your profit from the $44 to $46 trade, so that both the original PUT and the ROLLED put come from profit. Rolling puts is so much cheaper than rolling calls right now, like 30c on the dollar. That means for every
dollar that AMD goes up, it might cost you 30% of that to move to the next incremental PUT Level. You have to catch the top, unless you run out of money rolling puts. I have algorithms for this, you won't go broke. Your stock goes up as well, and you make money as the delta is
1.0 on shares. and < 1.0 on options.
F. WAIT for the top, and proper reversal signs.
G. First pullback and probably second, are all buying opportunities, so you do nothing if the stock drops.
H. When the stock finally reverses, you wont have to buy PUTS. They are almost FREE right now due to the VIX and the IV on AMD. You will have puts in your account.
I. You will catch the top, you will make serious money.
J. You need to add to your PUT position at $1 or $2 increments on the way down. You can still keep your stock if you wish.
K. You will need a stop on your AMD purchase. You will need to take a chance here. I would think you could place a stop around $42.25. I don't think it breaks $43 or $42.50 on the first dip.

Happy Trading

This is investing, the rest is day trading and wishful thinking.

註釋

Oh, and the stock will have to break $40 to go down the tubes, and the market will be going with it.

註釋

By the time it breaks $40, if you are quick and nimble, you should have no shares, and lots of puts. By this time you should also have:

Stock Market Crash List

BIS
BZQ
DDG
DOG
DPK
DUG
DXD
EDZ
EEV
EFU
EFZ
EPV
ERY
EUM
EWV
FAZ
FXP
GASX
HDGE
MYY
MZZ
PSQ
QID
REW
RUSS
RWM
RXD
SBB
SBM
SCC
SDOW
SDS
SEF
SH
SIJ
SKF
SMDD
SMN
SOXS
SPXU
SQQQ
SRTY
SSG
SZK
TWM
TZA
YANG
YXI

註釋

Disclosure:

I / We are very long AMD. We are long AMD since the $27.75 area. I hold a large personal position in the stock, and manage a large position for a firm. We are not selling anything. We use options to manage our long positions. AMD is a very volatile stock, unpredictable at the best of times, and can't be timed. You need the broader strokes that options provide to manage this Bronco. This stock is up so much it is ridiculous. And that is the problem.

註釋

So the thesis is that the stock will continue to move higher, and move quickly. The options table shows January 17 65 CALLS. Also profiled on CNBC by the NiQuerian Brothers. So we expect a top, at least 2 pullbacks, and when the market goes, AMD goes. In this case, I believe AMD is a leading indicator. AMD goes, the market will follow. So we ride it up, and ride it back down, and do so without getting our a** handed to us at these lofty levels.

註釋

So you ask why would AMD keep going higher, news:

CHINA TO CUT TARIFFS ON 850 PRODUCTS

cnbc.com/2019/12/23/asia-stocks-dec-23-us-china-trade-talks-us-stocks-record-highs-oil-and-currencies.html

So what would be really nice would be some down days, and AMD still went up. Lets see AAPL go down 2% and AMD up 2% tomorrow. Then we know this thesis has a high probability of being correct.

註釋

Always remember, just a thesis, at this moment in time. Markets are fluid, trading ideas must be or you are finished. Buy stock and wait 20 years, Warren Buffet style. Active management is the way to 40% yearly returns. We are 5 years running on 40% returns on our technologies fund. That includes the market crash last year. We profited from that too.

註釋

Looking at the wife's diversified fund, managed by Morgan Stanley, last 15 years, average return, 3.5%.

Pathetic.

Passive management. No fees.

Joke.

3.5% a year. Get your ETFs here.

How about we make 200% on AMD on the way up, and actively manage the frigging thing day by day and pay somebody lots of money a year to do it? Plus bonuses and vacation? Yes. And work from home all the time. How about a company that currently has a basket of ~52 stocks, and 10 people for each security actively managing and protecting your assets. I know the AMD quantitative analyst personally ;) Handsome fellow, quite polite.

Happy AMD Trading.

交易進行

Futures up slightly, +9 on the Nas, and most of that is AMD.

Printed $44.70 already, on vapour thin volume...

註釋

I think AMD will test $45 today.

We have a target of $45.75 on the ascending triangle we broke out of Friday.

We are up at $44.75 in the pre-market

I think we are range bound $44 to $45.75 until after the holidays. Lets see.

AMD may test $45 and just settle at $44.50 today.

註釋

I vote for lots of consolidation below the $46 area

交易進行

Looks like so far, this thesis is correct.

註釋

Remember to get those puts equal to your stock at $46.00... if we get there today or tomorrow.

交易進行

$45 breached. See you at $45.50

註釋

Calls as follows:

Dec 27 42 Call - 9.46K

January CALL

Jan 17 25 Call - 44.49K
Jan 17 30 Call - 35.36K
Jan 17 34 Call - 13.97K
Jan 17 35 Call - 46.52K
Jan 17 37 Call - 22.93K
Jan 17 38 Call - 10.73K
Jan 17 40 Call - 44.55K
Jan 17 45 Call - 27.12K
Jan 17 47 Call - 14.89K
Jan 17 50 Call - 17.17K
Jan 17 55 Call - 11.90K
Jan 17 65 Call - 31.31K

January PUT

Jan 17 38 Put - 9.37K
Jan 17 35 Put - 16.41K
Jan 17 34 Put - 10.41K
Jan 17 30 Put - 43.51K
Jan 17 31 Put - 13.19K
Jan 17 25 Put - 47.05K
Jan 17 10 Put - 60.19K

註釋

Those $65 calls are looking nice right now...

註釋

Unusual activity strikes IMHO...

註釋

$45.11 RESISTANCE... Important here...

註釋

RSI heading north, we should break...

註釋

CLOWNS trying to contain this on Level 2, not going to happen...

交易進行

$45.25 RESISTANCE, Gone!

註釋

$46.00 Remember, marry the stock with PUTS :)

註釋

Looking for any signs of reversal here, nothing yet...

註釋

Spoke too soon, $45.25 war zone...

交易進行

$45.25 might be the top of the day...

註釋

Watching possible reversal...

註釋

Consolidation flags, constant at 25c intervals, starts at $44.75. This is being pushed higher. No question. $44.75 / $45 / $45.25, we stair step to $46 then launch...

交易進行

Manipulation at it's finest to push above resistance from 2001, ~$46

註釋

Current channel runs from

LOWER: $43.75

MID: $45.75

HIGHER: $48.50

註釋

If they can get it through the middle of the current channel, we should break the all time high.

Then we get profiled on CNBC about "ALL TIME HIGH" and people take us to $50+

This is such a sham. Follow the smart money folks!

WEDBUSH TARGET $51.50

註釋

If you think people are looking to sell the double top you would be wrong.

People are waiting to play the massive breakout.

交易進行

All the majors on the BID hard, they are not letting it drop. Buying everything they can get there hands on.

Not a time to short this. The market can turn, and AMD will still go up.

SMH -1% TODAY
NVDA - 0.20%
AMD +2.24%

That is all you need to know.

交易結束：達到停損點

AMD looks to have met equilibrium at $45.11. RSI at 50. So time to do last minute xmas shopping.

As always looking for a break of $45.25 > $45.50, or a breakdown below $44.75.

Be safe. And send Lisa Su an email, tell her how much you love her and Merry X-mas!!

交易進行

$45.62, might make the push to $45.75....

取消訂單

UPDATE

This type of downward selling pressure at $45.60 to $45.50 was quite powerful. It was very reminiscent of the $35.50 point where we stopped on the Google Run and reversed.

LOOK OUT. This may be a pullback point. Watching Level 2 hard pressure...

註釋

Also I noticed the convergence of the head and shoulder and this flag at $45.60. The close and tomorrow is oh so important. If we get a pullback today, we gap down tomorrow and sell off. We need to hold $45.60 today...

註釋

Been watching AMD daily for years. Every single tick most days. This feels like a good time for a pullback to $41.75, where everybody wants to buy.

Let us see. I see campaign based selling...

交易進行

WELL WELL WELL

RBC Upgrade yesterday from Mitch, going from $50 to $55 LOL!

Anyway, they have gapped it up to all time high resistance at 46. Once we break that over the next 3 light holiday sessions....

$50 WE ARE AT.

$45.50 was a HEADFAKE.

Original thesis is golden. You can marry your stock with PUTS when you are
$2 UP, if you followed by advice. Maybe $46.50, if you got in at $44.50 when the market opened and followed my thesis.

We will test $50.

There is no doubt in my mind unless...

Black Swan for X-mas...

註釋

At $50 you want to sell CALLS. You will get $5.00 probably, so get paid $55 for your stock at $50, and then add PUTS to collar that position. Then you wait it out and get all the profit as you are collared.

Just like the institutions do.

If you manage to execute this, like we are trying to do, and pull it off, you will have pulled one of the most seasoned moves in a while, whilst the rest are terrified of a top, we go higher....

註釋

As always, once and if we fly past $46, you need to start thinking like a professional. You don't go out and spend money, that you don't have yet, you think EXIT STRATEGY AND PROTECTION OF PROFITS.

Happy XMAS Eve...

註釋

Also, $50 will be a consolidation and pullback level. This is where we get the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulders Pattern from my other thesis.

I believe we run to $55.50, and pull a Google / Twitter reversal. This will be the head.

註釋

RESISTANCE

AFTER $46.25 (We may bounce for a bit, $45.90 to $46.25, then after that

1. $46.95

2. $47.25

3. $47.95

4. $48.25

5. $48.75

6. $50.

We may forgo all these levels after $46 and run straight to $50 in a frenzy.

Then $50 will be resistance.

If we hard,

$41.75

註釋

$41.75 if we fail at $46. But I doubt it... Who is selling with only a few sessions til the new year, tax implications, and loss of $50+ run?

註釋

Time to resurrect this idea...

All bets are off, Trump just attacked Iran... Futures Tanking...

cnbc.com/2020/01/03/iranian-military-commander-qassim-soleimani-killed-in-baghdad-strike-iraqi-tv.html