AUDJPY Lower
I like trying AUDJPY lower here.
AUDJPY has usually been a proxy for risk sentiment but has recently moved more in line with global yields likely due to the BoJ remained the only dovish central bank and not hiking rates. While i don't think this changes soon i think there are a couple things that are changing that could cause a move lower.
Oil is moving lower currently and is a pretty good indicator of where US yields are going. From this i'm expecting us yields and global yields to fall a little with inflation expectations also falling. We could then see AUDJPY move lower as it turns more into a proxy for risk sentiment again if the yield trade dies down.
There's a shooting star on the weekly chart which i think could have been the last push higher for a little while and a decent double top in oil.
USDJPY long is probably one of the most crowded trades in fx at the moment so i can see a change at the margin causing a move lower.
There's also the market worries of BoJ intervention worries recently which could provide a kicker if there is any further news.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
AUDJPY has usually been a proxy for risk sentiment but has recently moved more in line with global yields likely due to the BoJ remained the only dovish central bank and not hiking rates. While i don't think this changes soon i think there are a couple things that are changing that could cause a move lower.
Oil is moving lower currently and is a pretty good indicator of where US yields are going. From this i'm expecting us yields and global yields to fall a little with inflation expectations also falling. We could then see AUDJPY move lower as it turns more into a proxy for risk sentiment again if the yield trade dies down.
There's a shooting star on the weekly chart which i think could have been the last push higher for a little while and a decent double top in oil.
USDJPY long is probably one of the most crowded trades in fx at the moment so i can see a change at the margin causing a move lower.
There's also the market worries of BoJ intervention worries recently which could provide a kicker if there is any further news.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
註釋
coming out at breakeven here and reassessing thursday or friday - i think we're dealing with quarter end and half year end right now so price action likely to remain choppy until then
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