AUD/USD: Will the Bulls Break Through or Will the Bears Takeover

8月14日

Alright traders, let's break down AUD/USD using a top-down analysis approach. We’ll move from the weekly chart down to the 4-hour chart to get the full picture.

Weekly Chart:
Looking at the weekly chart, AUD/USD has been in a solid downtrend, breaking below key support levels. However, last week we saw a strong bullish reversal from the 0.64500 region, where price found significant support. The pair is now testing the 21 EMA, hovering around the 0.66070 area, which has historically been a strong resistance zone. The 200 EMA is slightly above at 0.65962, adding further resistance. This area could act as a pivotal point for either a continuation of the downtrend or a potential reversal if bulls can break through convincingly.

Daily Chart:
Moving down to the daily chart, the bullish momentum from the previous week's low has carried forward, pushing price back above the 21 EMA. The price is currently testing the resistance around 0.66500, a level that aligns with the 200 EMA on the daily chart. The pair’s ability to break above this resistance will be crucial. If it fails to do so, we could see a retracement back towards the 0.65000 area.

4-Hour Chart:
On the 4-hour chart, we’re seeing the first signs of bearish rejection at the 0.66200 resistance level. Price has started to pull back slightly, but it’s still above the 21 EMA, indicating that bulls are not entirely out of the game yet. If the price breaks below the 21 EMA and closes below 0.65813, we could see a deeper retracement to retest lower support levels around 0.65150. However, if bulls manage to hold the line and push back above 0.66200, the uptrend could resume.

Right now, AUD/USD is at a crossroads. The weekly chart shows a strong potential for a reversal, but the daily and 4-hour charts suggest we could see some short-term pullbacks before any further upward movement. My bias is cautiously bullish, but I’m watching that 0.66200 resistance closely. A break above could open the door for more upside, while a failure to break could mean the bears are about to take control again. Keep those stops tight and watch for confirmation before jumping in!