AUDUSD still bearish

AUD/USD Chart Analysis and Trade Setup (4H Timeframe)

Technical Analysis:

1. Ichimoku Cloud:

Price Action: The price is trading below the Kumo Cloud, signaling a bearish bias.

Tenkan-Sen (Blue Line) and Kijun-Sen (Red Line): The Tenkan-Sen remains below the Kijun-Sen, which confirms bearish momentum.

Cloud Outlook: The future Kumo (to the right) remains red, indicating that bearish sentiment is likely to persist.



2. Support and Resistance:

Immediate Support: 0.63500, as the price is currently testing this level.

Resistance Levels:

0.63790 (first hurdle),

0.63911 (stronger short-term resistance).


If support at 0.63500 breaks, the next downside target will likely be 0.63259.



3. Volume:

Volume is relatively moderate but has picked up as the price tests support, suggesting a potential breakout to the downside if sellers gain control.



4. Candlestick Patterns:

A series of bearish candles is seen, with no strong reversal patterns as of now.

A bearish continuation setup may unfold if the price closes below 0.63500 on the next candle.




Trade Setup:

1. Bearish Scenario:

Entry: Short the AUD/USD pair if the price closes below 0.63500.

Target:

First take-profit at 0.63259,

Extended target at 0.63000 if bearish momentum accelerates.


Stop-Loss: Place a stop above 0.63790 (resistance).

Risk/Reward: Ensure a minimum ratio of 1:2 for profitability.



2. Bullish Reversal Setup (Less Probable):

If the price bounces off 0.63500:

Entry: Long above 0.63790.

Target: First at 0.63911 and next at 0.64261.

Stop-Loss: Below 0.63450 to minimize risk.





Conclusion:

Current bias is bearish with potential for further downside if support at 0.63500 breaks.

Watch for volume confirmation and price action around key support levels before entering trades. A bounce would signal short-term relief, but the trend remains bearish as long as the price trades below the cloud and resistance areas.