澳元/美元看空
0.6550 may come under fire today...
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April’s 370-pip advance has, as you can see, landed May within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Supply at 0.6618/0.6544 remained in the fight Thursday, shattering a three-day winning streak off lows at 0.6410, by way of a bearish inside candle formation.
Nearby we have the 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642, fixed a few pips from the 200-day simple moving average seen around 0.6658.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Recent analysis highlighted a falling wedge formed on approach to demand at 0.6356/0.6384, between 0.6561/0.6432.
The week kicked off penetrating the upper edge of the falling wedge, with Tuesday and Wednesday extending ground and crossing paths with the falling wedge take-profit target, measured by taking the base and adding this value to the breakout point (yellow), at 0.6595. As of yet, however, we have been unable to close above 0.6595.
Thanks to recent buying, though, supply at 0.6695/0.6664 is on the hit list.
H1 timeframe:
The value of the Australian dollar fell against the greenback Thursday, grasping 0.6550 in early trade after surpassing trendline support (0.6411). Heading into US trade buyers found legs and struck the base of the recent trend line, subsequently carrying the pair to lows at 0.6555 into the close.
Notably, we also see the RSI oscillator hiking under 50.00.
Structures of Interest:
Longer term, daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 appears to be holding on by a thread, despite recent action, unlocking the possibility of bringing in the nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642 and 200-day simple moving average at 0.6658, a dynamic value essentially connecting with the underside of monthly supply at 0.6664.
Short term, 0.6550 may come under fire today, fuelled on the back of traders liquidating (selling) at the H4 falling wedge take-profit target around 0.6595.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April’s 370-pip advance has, as you can see, landed May within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Supply at 0.6618/0.6544 remained in the fight Thursday, shattering a three-day winning streak off lows at 0.6410, by way of a bearish inside candle formation.
Nearby we have the 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642, fixed a few pips from the 200-day simple moving average seen around 0.6658.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Recent analysis highlighted a falling wedge formed on approach to demand at 0.6356/0.6384, between 0.6561/0.6432.
The week kicked off penetrating the upper edge of the falling wedge, with Tuesday and Wednesday extending ground and crossing paths with the falling wedge take-profit target, measured by taking the base and adding this value to the breakout point (yellow), at 0.6595. As of yet, however, we have been unable to close above 0.6595.
Thanks to recent buying, though, supply at 0.6695/0.6664 is on the hit list.
H1 timeframe:
The value of the Australian dollar fell against the greenback Thursday, grasping 0.6550 in early trade after surpassing trendline support (0.6411). Heading into US trade buyers found legs and struck the base of the recent trend line, subsequently carrying the pair to lows at 0.6555 into the close.
Notably, we also see the RSI oscillator hiking under 50.00.
Structures of Interest:
Longer term, daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 appears to be holding on by a thread, despite recent action, unlocking the possibility of bringing in the nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642 and 200-day simple moving average at 0.6658, a dynamic value essentially connecting with the underside of monthly supply at 0.6664.
Short term, 0.6550 may come under fire today, fuelled on the back of traders liquidating (selling) at the H4 falling wedge take-profit target around 0.6595.
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