AUDUSD broken a five-month descending trend channel and subsequently closed above the 50-day moving average after a 96-day bear drive (the third longest period of weakness in over 15 years). That would seem a strong cue for those anxious for a big swing from a market that seems to be holding back from those big drives. Yet, there are a few issues. The long-term bear trend has developed for this pair for a reason. A lack of conviction in risk trends and skewed monetary policy lean create a fundamental hurdle. Furthermore, there are few areas of the market that are piloting breakouts or trend development. That is a difficult environment to fuel this move in.