AUDUSD Sell Setup

2023年4月30日

Here are the key things to note about this trade:

Weekly:
-we are bearish on the weekly.
-we actually picked up momentum toward the end of the month and printed a strong bearish momentum candle after 6-7 straight weeks of wicks to the upside on the weekly chart.
-this momentum candle is an indicator of orders getting filled and potential for more price action to push south.
H4:
-we broke structure to the downside on H4- but slightly. There is a shred of hesitation to heading farther down but the pair left us on a cliffhanger at the close of the April month.

NOTES:
-of great interest to me are two key lows: the April low which was printed on Friday (0.66736) and the March low (0.65643)- both of which remained untapped as we closed the month of April.

This trade is based on the premise that:
-we broke structure on the midrange (H1, if you will) to the downside, establishing a bearish picture at the week's open.
-we retraced to the 61.8% fib level and minor supply level that can be seen clearly on M15.
-Friday closed with a level of rejection at this minor supply
-the monthly lows at the aforementioned levels offer plenty of incentive for the pair to push into them

That being said, this is a 50-pip potential trade.
Entry shall be based on rejection at the close of the first hour after the Asian session commencement. target: 0.65600, right below the March low.
Entry TF: M15.