AUD/USD Forex Analysis – Trading Update for March 2025

The AUD/USD pair has been exhibiting interesting price action over the past week. Following a strong bullish movement that took place on March 4th, 2025, the pair has entered a wedge formation. This bullish push was triggered by the announcement of tariffs, effective starting on March 3rd, 2025.

Key Price Action:
The high of the bullish move was marked at 0.63640, after which the price retraced to test a previous key support level at 0.62730. This level proved to be significant, as it was tested five separate times.
During the retest, the market formed lower lows and lower highs, indicating a shift in market structure. To visualize this, a bearish trendline was drawn, capturing the declining momentum.

Break and Retest:
The move we were anticipating was a break of the bearish trendline, followed by a retest of this trendline. This occurred on March 13-14, 2025, confirming the bearish structure.
After this retest, the weekly close showed a bullish push back to the 1-hour previous high at 0.63286, indicating some bullish interest around this price level.

Current Market Structure:
The pair is now trading within a defined range:
Low: 0.62582
High: 0.63288
We are monitoring the 0.63000 level closely, as it is a critical point of interest. A breakout above or below one of the boundaries of this range will provide further confirmation on the pair's next move.

Next Steps:
If the market respects the 0.63000 level and remains within the range, we will continue to observe price action for any further setups. A break above 0.63288 or below 0.62582 will offer more clarity on the pair’s next directional move.