NIFTYBANK - Inflation Recedes, Recession Precedes

2023年4月13日

The much-awaited inflation numbers out. Relief in headline numbers, concern on the Core Numbers. With Oil rearing again relative to the last month, the hope for sustained fall comes with flags save the base effect. The recession is not here but in US, post the FOMC minutes which see probability of recession higher. Empirical evidence suggests that probability too. However, one has to wait and see how each economy reacts and performs as the underlying dynamics are not similar. For the positive side, our industrial production number is encouraging, while inflation is still at the higher end of the range. Markets would focus on the fact it is below 6% mandated cap than anything else. The structural trend-line was held, while we are facing the supply zone in the short time frame. Will there be a corrective move for today on the backdrop of expiry? The answer is yes as well as no. This space is now again raring to lead the NIFTY and hence any corrective move in NIFTY the fall can come from other sectors majorly than form here. For the day 41200-41700 should work.