A $1k Bitcoin
已更新
Oh Jebus. I think I may have found our real bottom.
Tonight I was messing around with BLX using Fib, and I found something very interesting.
From the 2014 ATH, we had a net total of around a roughly ~86% retracement from ATH to end of bear.
From the 2017 ATH, we had a net total of around a roughly ~85% retracement from ATH to end of bear.
Interesting that from ATH to bear bottoms are eerily close in both 2014 and 2017.
This is likely why we rallied so hard. The percentages were almost exactly the same.
Also interesting to note. 2015 was a confirmed bottom because there were months of sideways consolidation, finally ending in a higher low and then? Bullrun!
There are a few things though that stick out to me more than the eerily close percentages.
First of all, look at price action. From the actual bear market bottom of 2015, the price action was pretty much entirely sideways in a range. So far, every true Bitcoin bear market bottom has been sideways consolidation for many months. This time is different?
From the 2019 'bear market bottom' however, we instantaneously skyrocketed in a parabola, where the weekly is showing massive divergence in the RSI.
I'd like to point something out to you, to get you a little woke. Look at the candles of 2014.
When 2014 had its A wave retracement, the next monthly candle was by far and wide bullish engulfing.
B waves in Elliott Theory are argued to be the shortest duration in time out of the ABC series and are often very powerful. If you ignore the size of the first bull candle in 2019 and instead combine the first 3 or 4 candles, you get 2014 B wave.
Another thing. If you measure the A and C wave corrections from ATH in 2014 rather than from ATH to bottom, there's something interesting to be found.
The original A wave retracement back in 2014 was 70.61%.
For C wave in 2014, if you measure from the .382 Fibonnaci retracement of A wave rather than the top of B wave until bottom, the total retracement for C wave equals ~75.3%. 4.7% more than A wave!
So, if we apply the same game theory in our current situation as what happened in 2014...
From the 2017 ATH, we had a net total of around a roughly ~84.15% retracement from ATH to the 'end of the bear.'
If the ~84.15% retracement from the 2017 ATH was simply A wave as I suspect, then we simply add 4.7% more on to A waves total to find C wave, which would equal an 88.85% retracement from the .382 Fibonacci retracement of our current ATH.
Best part? Take a look at the 100 MA on the monthly. Our 2018 'bear market' didn't even wick to it.
If it keeps going the way it is now it will be 'very strong' support that fakes everyone out during the halvening thinking it's the REAL bottom.
I bet we pump before/during ish the halvening at around $2,200/$2,400 to bull trap people.
Reason #1 it will be a bulltrap- the 100 MA on the monthly will be 'INCREDIBLE, INSTITUTITONAL level support' around ~$2,200/$2,400. In 2014, the 50 MA had just started to show. Very similar to what the current 100 MA is doing. So, people will think the 100 MA will be the inpenetrable support.
Reason #2, take a look at the percentage lost in 2014 from the .382 retracement. 75.3%.
When we break our current low at $3,120, everyone will flock to a 75.3% retracement from our current ATH .382 retrace to be our 'final low' because that's what it did in 2014. History always repeats right?
Oops.
Tonight I was messing around with BLX using Fib, and I found something very interesting.
From the 2014 ATH, we had a net total of around a roughly ~86% retracement from ATH to end of bear.
From the 2017 ATH, we had a net total of around a roughly ~85% retracement from ATH to end of bear.
Interesting that from ATH to bear bottoms are eerily close in both 2014 and 2017.
This is likely why we rallied so hard. The percentages were almost exactly the same.
Also interesting to note. 2015 was a confirmed bottom because there were months of sideways consolidation, finally ending in a higher low and then? Bullrun!
There are a few things though that stick out to me more than the eerily close percentages.
First of all, look at price action. From the actual bear market bottom of 2015, the price action was pretty much entirely sideways in a range. So far, every true Bitcoin bear market bottom has been sideways consolidation for many months. This time is different?
From the 2019 'bear market bottom' however, we instantaneously skyrocketed in a parabola, where the weekly is showing massive divergence in the RSI.
I'd like to point something out to you, to get you a little woke. Look at the candles of 2014.
When 2014 had its A wave retracement, the next monthly candle was by far and wide bullish engulfing.
B waves in Elliott Theory are argued to be the shortest duration in time out of the ABC series and are often very powerful. If you ignore the size of the first bull candle in 2019 and instead combine the first 3 or 4 candles, you get 2014 B wave.
Another thing. If you measure the A and C wave corrections from ATH in 2014 rather than from ATH to bottom, there's something interesting to be found.
The original A wave retracement back in 2014 was 70.61%.
For C wave in 2014, if you measure from the .382 Fibonnaci retracement of A wave rather than the top of B wave until bottom, the total retracement for C wave equals ~75.3%. 4.7% more than A wave!
So, if we apply the same game theory in our current situation as what happened in 2014...
From the 2017 ATH, we had a net total of around a roughly ~84.15% retracement from ATH to the 'end of the bear.'
If the ~84.15% retracement from the 2017 ATH was simply A wave as I suspect, then we simply add 4.7% more on to A waves total to find C wave, which would equal an 88.85% retracement from the .382 Fibonacci retracement of our current ATH.
Best part? Take a look at the 100 MA on the monthly. Our 2018 'bear market' didn't even wick to it.
If it keeps going the way it is now it will be 'very strong' support that fakes everyone out during the halvening thinking it's the REAL bottom.
I bet we pump before/during ish the halvening at around $2,200/$2,400 to bull trap people.
Reason #1 it will be a bulltrap- the 100 MA on the monthly will be 'INCREDIBLE, INSTITUTITONAL level support' around ~$2,200/$2,400. In 2014, the 50 MA had just started to show. Very similar to what the current 100 MA is doing. So, people will think the 100 MA will be the inpenetrable support.
Reason #2, take a look at the percentage lost in 2014 from the .382 retracement. 75.3%.
When we break our current low at $3,120, everyone will flock to a 75.3% retracement from our current ATH .382 retrace to be our 'final low' because that's what it did in 2014. History always repeats right?
Oops.
註釋
I was beginning to lose faith that this idea is very possible.Then, something magical happened.
"Message will be shown after moderation."
My comments are being moderated now. After discussing this idea with multiple people. What does that tell you?
Jesus you people make it so blatant lmfao
註釋
L U L
註釋
PS- Look at the volumes in that screenshot VS what you see in the main idea.'nuff said
註釋
Be careful out there..6/18 is almost here...
註釋
Yiiiiiiiiiikes. 註釋
Here are your levels to watch for bear season.
From the high of ~
14K, Bitcoin completed an ABC flat correction, or 3-3-5.Technically speaking, if we were going to break our current high at least any time soon, we should have done it on the August rally I believe. After the ABC flat, Bitcoin rallied to around $12,320 on an ABC retracement and was stopped in its tracks. This tells me we are beginning a bear impulse down.
The targets I have outlined are based on speculative Elliott Wave theory but I believe will be accurate and will yield very strong bounces. The main target for now lies around 7.4k. Beyond that, if my intuition is correct, 4.4k and 1.5k are my main targets. It will take some time to get there, but believe me, we WILL get there.
In the grand macro scheme I believe Bitcoin is soon about to begin a major 5 wave impulse down.
Please keep in mind I am still very much an amateur in this market and could end up very wrong.
I am keeping a somewhat close eye on the chart to see how it develops.
We have already had an ABC retracement from ATH ending at 3.1k, so it is entirely possible that we are indeed in a new bull run. Though, according to my limited knowledge on Elliott Wave theory, if we do end up in a bull run it should be very brief in my opinion and we will not be seeing the 50k, 100k+ price points the moon boys are shouting out. This new bull run would likely put us in a 5th subwave of an extended 3rd wave at BEST. I am bear bias however so we will see how it plays out.
This will be my last update for a while. I am sure most of you have realized by now that my TradingView account has been deactivated. There are a lot of not so nice people that have been stalking, harassing, and subliminally communicating with me and I'm getting tired of it.
Especially because there is only one person who semi believes what I have been saying. The rest think I am suffering from psychosis or some form of paranoid schizophrenia. I know better.
My Reddit account has also been deleted as I've noticed quite a bit of subliminal messages in the Crypto subreddits I was consistently visiting. Especially lots of grammatical errors that annoy the living shit out of me. Who knows- maybe that's just exactly how this market moves. People see the messages and act on them. I don't know, and anyone I've gotten these 'hints' or subliminal 'messages' from act like they just made mistakes in the way they type, etc. Not one person is willing to talk about it. So am I being trolled because I'm weak as dirt, or is there really something I am seeing that needs to remain secret? I don't know because I have nobody to talk to about it.
I would really love to hear from some of you, so feel free to reach out and send a message if you would like to talk. Especially if you have any kind of advice on what I should do next.
I really do not want to give this up, but I feel for my mental sanity I may have no choice.
It's been a wild ride.
-Salesman
OUT
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。