Alt Season Around the Corner (Scenarios)
Bitcoin Dominance may be topping out here - a possible triple-top.
Meanwhile many alts are bottoming vs. Bitcoin.
A couple of examples shown here in contrast with
BTC.D
are
ETHBTC
and
HBARBTC
which may also be forming triple bottoms.
This could occur as soon as next week.
Other possible scenarios could be:
Scenario 1: Mini-Alt-Season First: Then Bitcoin Dominates again -> Actual Alt Season:
Scenario 2- Breaks and Pullbacks Now: Dominance Breaks above 54.09% now -> Alts Lose their Bottoms Briefly -> Alt Season
Scenario 3 - Idea is Invalidated - Dominance either heads up strong and Bitcoin eats alts or it falls as Bitcoin drops hard as Dominance does and the entire market moves down
This final scenario is the invalidation of this idea. Bitcoin either rises hard along with dominance and destroys alt/btc pairings, or dominance and Bitcoin drop together as the entire market weakens - and if this occurs, I'd expect the signal for it would be as
DXY
strengthens heading above 106-108 and then 112-115 (see my other published posts about the Dollar Index and how it relates to crypto and stocks on the macro).
Hope this helps someone, cheers and good luck!
- dudebruhwhoa
Meanwhile many alts are bottoming vs. Bitcoin.
A couple of examples shown here in contrast with
BTC.D
are
ETHBTC
and
HBARBTC
which may also be forming triple bottoms. This could occur as soon as next week.
Other possible scenarios could be:
Scenario 1: Mini-Alt-Season First: Then Bitcoin Dominates again -> Actual Alt Season:
For this scenario, we'd likely see something like an initial breakdown of Bitcoin Dominance and breakout of Alts vs. their Bitcoin pairings, followed by a pullback on both as Bitcoin rises higher and alts lose vs. BTC again, hitting higher lows near bottom prior to the real breakout.
Scenario 2- Breaks and Pullbacks Now: Dominance Breaks above 54.09% now -> Alts Lose their Bottoms Briefly -> Alt Season
In this example, there's a breakout above recent Bitcoin Dominance highs (weekly close(s) above 54.09%), and alts breakdown losing their current bottoms vs Bitcoin (weekly close(s) below their weekly lows). Then a pullback below 54.09% and above alt's recent lows leading into an extended alt season.
Scenario 3 - Idea is Invalidated - Dominance either heads up strong and Bitcoin eats alts or it falls as Bitcoin drops hard as Dominance does and the entire market moves down
This final scenario is the invalidation of this idea. Bitcoin either rises hard along with dominance and destroys alt/btc pairings, or dominance and Bitcoin drop together as the entire market weakens - and if this occurs, I'd expect the signal for it would be as
DXY
strengthens heading above 106-108 and then 112-115 (see my other published posts about the Dollar Index and how it relates to crypto and stocks on the macro). Hope this helps someone, cheers and good luck!
- dudebruhwhoa
交易進行:
Here's another look at how dominance could move back down to where it broke out before it ran:
交易進行:
EW supports this idea and its targets, as well:
