Alt season is not coming (yet)..

2024年10月30日

Analyzing Fibonacci levels and trading volumes, it doesn’t look like an alt season is imminent. For now, a monthly close above resistance seems necessary, and as BTCUSDT rises, Bitcoin dominance will likely increase. While this might lead to some minor gains in altcoins, they’re unlikely to be substantial.

Two scenarios could unfold:

1. Short Alt Spring: Bitcoin sees a sharp rise followed by a short decline. This could bring a brief uptick for altcoins, but they would then experience a period of stagnation ("bleeding") before a full-scale alt season arrives.

2. Delayed Super Alt Season: A more robust alt season could happen directly, though with a slight delay.

Check the “golden pocket” (between the yellow Fibonacci levels) for crucial resistance and support zones.

Aside from technicals, consider the macroeconomic context: the Fed’s potential rate cuts and quantitative easing are expected to take time, meaning that a significant increase in money supply could be delayed.

Remember to do your own research (DYOR)! NFA.

2024年11月1日

註釋

With the recent decline in BTC’s price, we’re now hovering around a key resistance level between 69,700 and 69,020. If this level doesn’t hold, we could see a sharp drop, potentially down to 68,180, or even as low as 66,680.

If this downside scenario plays out, we may hit the 64% retracement level sooner than anticipated—a development I’d prefer to avoid. A gradual build in market dominance would be more sustainable under the current market and economic conditions. The market isn’t yet positioned for a sudden surge, especially given the ongoing monetary policies in the US and EU, with the US's stance being particularly crucial here. Patience is key in this environment!

2024年12月13日

交易進行

I am now with second scenario, BTC.D can still go up to 63.5%
DYOR!

2024年12月19日

註釋

Going steady, please brace if a big correction hits. I cannot say it will, but eventually it should. My first price target for BTC is roughly around 112k. Then I will expect a correction. I cannot say where dominance will hoover when the price hits target, but approximately I expect 60% with that price.

After the expected correction a 64% may max out. Then, I expect that long-expected alt season.

1月19日

交易結束：目標達成

Slowly going to target, 63-64 is hopefully a max.. If BTC pumps without orhers pumping, this is the best scenario. Otherwise, if it dumps, then this will quicken the dominance, but alts will, well, not only bleed but die