$BTC.D Dominance forecast: update May 2025

5月23日

📉 BTC Dominance (%BTC.D) Update – At Resistance, Altseason in the Balance

Back on April 5th, I published a forecast highlighting the critical 65% resistance level on BTC Dominance. That analysis still holds: BTC.D reached 65% and got rejected, pulling back to 62% as of now.

⚔️ What’s Happening?
Bitcoin dominance is compressing, and we're approaching a make-or-break moment:
🔹 Resistance confirmed at 65%
🔹 We bounced down to 62% — not up
🔹 Market is hesitating, and the next move will shape the short-term direction for alts

🔍 The Bigger Picture

• Bitcoin pumped hard recently, mostly due to:
  
• MACD reversal on the weekly
  
• Oversold conditions now turning bullish
  
• Renewed institutional interest in risk-on assets
  

But let’s be clear:
🚫 We’re not in a full altseason yet.
What we’re seeing is cautious altcoin rotation, not a blow-off alt rally.

📊 Tech Indicators

• MACD: Overheated
  
• RSI: Still has room to move up
  

So technically, BTC.D could still break out above 65% — but it hasn’t yet.

⚠️ What to Watch:
If BTC.D breaks out above 65%, expect:
➡️ Altcoin bloodbath
➡️ BTC.D could head toward 70%, crushing the mini-altseason

But if BTC.D continues to drop from here?
➡️ Altseason starts to heat up

🔮 Outlook
A true altseason might not arrive until September/October. For now, the market is stuck in a range of uncertainty.

Keep your eyes on:

• BTC.D reaction at 62%–65%
  
• TradFi stress (bond markets, macro fears)
  
• Bitcoin strength and ETH/BTC ratio
  

🧠 Take profits when you can. Protect your capital.
📌 Follow me for future updates—and don’t forget to DYOR.

📎 Original forecast:

5月25日

交易進行

Here is a chart on Daily so that it is more clear and zoomed.

5月31日

交易結束：目標達成

BTC.D is currently moving in line with the forecast. As a result, altcoins are taking a beating. At the same time, Bitcoin's price is dumping, which amplifies losses across the altcoin market and drives BTC.D even higher. This is the same dynamic that shut down the altcoin season back in December 2024.

I expect BTC.D to face resistance around the 65% level. If it breaks through, it could trigger a brutal selloff in altcoins.

Updatyed chart here: