Bitcoin Dominance still pushing | When will Alt szn start?

2020年12月27日

Bitcoin dominance is strongly trending and so is price. These are two important metrics in identifying a strong BTC Bullish trend. Historically BTC bull markets - and especially the final 'blow-off-top' movement in BTC is accompanied by both price and strong dominance appreciation.

So when will Alt szn come? Let's look at historic BTC price + DOM and compare that from 2017 to 2020

2020年12月27日

註釋

BTC price tops around middle of December and the dominance also tops in 2017

2020年12月27日

註釋

We will use ETH/BTC as a proxy to define the Alt szn or Alt dominance gaining over BTC dominance. In the previous comment we can see BTC dominance topped in mid-December 2017 around 72%.


We approached the same 72% marker just now in 2020.

So is the Alt szn near? Almost...yes.

2020年12月27日

註釋

Here's how the ETH/BTC proxy for Alt szn looks right now:


In 2017 ETH/BTC pair bottomed around mid-December 2017 at 0.0225 ratio

Decembre 26, 2020 we just hit that same blue support zone around 0.0225 ratio and we bounced strong off it.

As per this chart, if history were to rhyme, it would be very poetic for ETH to bounce strongly and other Altcoins to follow. This would start the beginning of Alt season if history were to repeat.

2020年12月27日

註釋

As you can see in the ETH/USD pair we can see mid-December 2017 when BTC topped at $20000 ETH was barely at $850. Once BTC sold off from $20k and dropped -53% down to $9500, ETH pushed higher and gained +64% in the same time frame going from $850 all the way to $1400.

2020年12月27日

註釋

Summary: We are quite likely in the beginning stages of the Alt season **IF** BTC dominance does NOT push higher and ETH/BTC ratio does not push lower. As these two factors have an inverse relationship. And if ETH can start breaking out, it is likely a LEADING proxy signal for the market that Alt season is about to begin.

On December 27, 2020 we saw ETH/BTC ratio bounce from 0.0225 all the way to 0.259 and price go from $625 up to $720 in a span of hours. Other Altcoin such as LINK, BAND, YFI, and many others followed.

So I believe we are just beginning the commencement of Alt season but we need follow through. If BTC starts pushing past $29000 and ETH/other Alts start ranging again - then this implies today's push from Altcoins was a fakeout and BTC may push higher and Altcoins may range more and/or retrace.

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