The euro perspective of bitcoin: 16k versus 8k

2022年6月18日

TLDR: attempt to long around 16k-17k with stop at 15k, switch to short if under 13k
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Area around 16k EUR is likely to be at least a local bottom, given:
-strong confluence of fibs
-technicals entering oversold zone
-symmetry of a lower degree: -73% correction
-close to major top of 2018
-coincide with volume profile wedge, albeit a small one


A rebounce could be produced in the short term.

However if BTC keep sliding, either directly or after a rebounce, the next meaningful support will probably be found around 8k-9k, due to:
-huge volume profile wedge
-symmetry of a higher degree: -85% correction
-some confluence of fibs


Risk assessment: if stop hit, loss will be ~10% depending on entry price.

2022年6月20日

交易進行

Trade active: On second thought: action off the low is actually quite constructive, so start building position here. For a total of 5 tranches:
-keep 2 tranches in reserve
-long 1 tranche each at 19.5k, 18.5k, 17.5k
-all 3 with stop at 17k

2022年7月14日

註釋

Stop moved up to 18.6k, for the two tranches that got filed.
tradingview.com/x/W5ZY7OHX/

Cancelling the order that is still open at 17.5k, as it shouldn't be reached if further action remains bullish.
Now keeping 3 tranches in reserve.

2022年8月7日

交易進行

Bought one more tranche at 22.5k, stop for all 3 tranches moved up to 21k.
Remaining 2 tranches will no longer be used for this swing trade.

RSI is weakening and volume not quite followed through, final target for exit probably around 25k - 26k.
tradingview.com/x/QtweHkPz/

2022年8月17日

交易進行

Stop for all 3 tranches moved up to 21.8k.
Average entry was 20.2k, 8% profit if stop hit.

2022年8月20日

交易結束：達到停損點