Secure ptofits of LONG

📊 BTC Daily Chart – In-Depth Analysis (as of Apr 15, 2025)

🔍 Overview
You're holding a long position from below $80K, still active but now at a +5-6% gain, while TP is placed around 88.3K, close to a key resistance and trendline confluence. Let's break this all down and answer your core question: Is it wise to secure profits now even if TP hasn't been reached?

⚒️ BitcoinMF PRO & Fisher Confirmation
The BitcoinMF PRO indicator has been delivering precise entries/exits—highlighted with green "Long" and red "Short" tags.

Your current active long was marked by BitcoinMF PRO near the lower end of the descending channel with Fisher Transform at a local bottom, signaling an extremely oversold bounce zone.

The Fisher is curling up from a "super low" region, meaning it is entering mid-zone. This reduces risk-reward from here for new longs—good reason to lock partial profits.

📉 Technical Chart Structure Breakdown
🔺 Linear Regression Channels:
BTC is now trading near the top of the smaller descending red channel, nearing rejection territory.

Also, it’s approaching the bottom half of the broader dark blue ascending channel = resistance cluster zone.

🔁 Elliott Wave Structure (Possibly Ending Wave 4)
This looks like a potential 3 → 4 → 5 wave structure unfolding.

Wave 3 likely bottomed near $71K-73K, and this long is likely part of Wave 4 retracement. If correct, Wave 5 may resume down again unless invalidated above $88.3K.

🔸 Fibonacci Watch:
0.5 Fib retracement from recent swing high to low is around $84.2K-$85.5K—you’re sitting on it right now.

0.618 Fib confluence is ~$88.5K, right where TP is set. That zone is statistically known for rejections. This is another reason to secure a chunk of profit now.

📉 Volume & Sentiment
Volume is weak on this rally, indicating a lack of conviction.

Fear & Greed Index (live: ⚠️ around 72 – greed zone) is starting to lean hot.

Market sentiment is optimistic, and price is hovering just below known short zones.

🏦 Whale Activity, Exchange Inflows & CME Gap
Whale wallets have shown mild accumulation at lower levels (~73K-$75K), but no aggressive buying up here.

Exchange inflows are increasing slightly – suggesting some may be getting ready to sell into this strength.

✅ CME Gap around $66K is still unfilled. Historically 90% of gaps fill. Keep that in your long-term radar.

🔄 Long vs Shorts Ratio (Bybit + Binance)
On both Bybit and Binance, Longs > Shorts by ~58/42 – minor imbalance. Suggests majority is positioned long, slightly raising correction risk.

✅ Final Strategic Take
❗ Why You Should Secure Profits Now:
Price is at a resistance confluence zone (Fib + LR + sentiment).

The move has already run +5-6%, and even if price doesn’t touch TP at 88.3K, greed could erase that unrealized profit quickly.

If this is just Wave 4, the next move could be a final push down to $70K or lower (Wave 5).

Volume divergence + rising inflows = risk is increasing.

Locking at least 50-70% now is smart trader psychology. You can always re-enter.

🔮 Most Probable Next Move: 6.8 / 10 – Mild Up, Then Pullback
BTC has 69% probability of testing $86.5K–$88.5K, but rejection is very likely there.

After that, we could see a pullback to $80K–$82K.

Extreme bullish continuation (above $90K) currently has <20% probability unless macro/Fed/etc. change.

📌 Action Recommendation:
📈 Secure partial profits immediately.

🧠 Move stop-loss to breakeven or slightly in profit to protect the rest.

🛑 Avoid FOMO-ing into new longs now – let the chart confirm breakout first.

🧠 Ancient Wisdom:
In Pirkei Avot (Ethics of the Fathers), Rabbi Tarfon said:

“The day is short, the work is great… and the reward is much, but the Master is insistent.”

In trading terms: The market doesn’t owe you your TP. Secure reward when the work is done. Don’t overstay your welcome.


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