September 10th 2021 BTC Analysis
Prelude:
BTC has been on quite the bullish impulse which has been a great ride however on September 7th the market experienced a strong bearish impulse which broke the most immediate bullish market structure. Although PA has been finding support above the Daily 200 SMA until today.
Current situation:
PA has invalidated both the most immediate level of bullish market structure and has closed below the 200 D-SMA which tickles my bearish senses.
3 Possible scenarios:
1. Today's close has put PA right around the initial basing area after breaking out from the summer-long accumulation range. This area provides both structural support and is the last structural RSI low that could offer a hidden bullish divergence. A bullish rejection from this level would reinforce a hyper-bullish market narrative for me.
2. The more probably scenario IMO is a fall further down towards the 41.5k area to retest the range highs of the summer-month accumulation range which is in confluence with the 200 D-EMA (which acted as previous range high resistance + support too). This would be the most logical place for bulls to defend.
3. Breaking back into the summer-month accumulation range would open up the range lows again (about a -25% move from here) which would give the bulls a last chance to defend before a medium-term bear market is in the cards.
How am I playing it:
I am not looking to cash out any of my spot holdings as I firmly believe accumulation is the name of the game with crypto. However, I will be looking to hedge my holdings (and earn on USDT) by hedging my spot holds with low-leverage derivative shorts. I will look to enter off a bearish rejection of the 200 D-SMA. I have earned enough on this bullish impulse to risk a small hedge here. SL is sitting above structural resistance around the 21 D-EMA.
BTC has been on quite the bullish impulse which has been a great ride however on September 7th the market experienced a strong bearish impulse which broke the most immediate bullish market structure. Although PA has been finding support above the Daily 200 SMA until today.
Current situation:
PA has invalidated both the most immediate level of bullish market structure and has closed below the 200 D-SMA which tickles my bearish senses.
3 Possible scenarios:
1. Today's close has put PA right around the initial basing area after breaking out from the summer-long accumulation range. This area provides both structural support and is the last structural RSI low that could offer a hidden bullish divergence. A bullish rejection from this level would reinforce a hyper-bullish market narrative for me.
2. The more probably scenario IMO is a fall further down towards the 41.5k area to retest the range highs of the summer-month accumulation range which is in confluence with the 200 D-EMA (which acted as previous range high resistance + support too). This would be the most logical place for bulls to defend.
3. Breaking back into the summer-month accumulation range would open up the range lows again (about a -25% move from here) which would give the bulls a last chance to defend before a medium-term bear market is in the cards.
How am I playing it:
I am not looking to cash out any of my spot holdings as I firmly believe accumulation is the name of the game with crypto. However, I will be looking to hedge my holdings (and earn on USDT) by hedging my spot holds with low-leverage derivative shorts. I will look to enter off a bearish rejection of the 200 D-SMA. I have earned enough on this bullish impulse to risk a small hedge here. SL is sitting above structural resistance around the 21 D-EMA.
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