Can Bitcoin’s coming ATH be $188k?
Previously I published my so-called Da Vinci Theory working out the time frame expectancy for BTC to reach this cycle’s ATH; and it got me to theory that Bitcoin is to have its ATH by the 1st week of Jan 2022. Full details and breakdown can be found here:
This time, I worked out on predicting the ATH itself. I have published it roughly and pinned it on my Twitter profile back in August 1st. And here is the breakdown of this theory; feel free to challenge it:
1. I started with the question of how high should Bitcoin should go to fall 80%-85% in the next cycle setting it’s new ATL. After all, it is a known fact that BTC falls this much from its new ATH to set its new cycle ATL.
2. Then I considered that Bitcoin should respect its previous cycle 2017 ATH ~20k, and not violate it. After all, this is what we learned from Bitcoin cycles.
3. Then I looked at the charts where the bulls defended the support during this cycle, and could that 30k was defended in Jan 2021, Feb 2021, May 2021, June 2021 and July 2021.
4. To avoid being biased to this support, I applied Fib R on 2017 cycle ATH and ATL where the 0.236 level met 2017 ATH at 20k, and 2018 ATL 3.1k at the 0 level. These Fib levels have been the consideration of Bitcoin in every cycle, the only difference was the FIB R level of the ATH that followed.
5. Looking at Fib R proposed ATH levels for this cycle, I found the following: 74k at Level 1, 117k at level 1.618, and 188k at level 2.618.
6. I didn’t take into consideration further levels in consideration of the diminishing returns theory and to remain as conservative as rationally possible with this theory.
7. The level that gave Bitcoin 80%-85% drop without violating previous cycle ATH, was the 1.618.
8. That said, theoretically this coming ATH puts Bitcoin at a jaw dropping 188k.
Now that I have validated my theory with the mentioned above references, I worked on what takes to violate my theory:
1) If Bitcoin doesn’t reach that high, it may end up either not dropping 80%-85% in the coming bear market => This will violate Bitcoin all previous bitcoin cycle trends. Or Bitcoin will fall through previous cycle ATH 20k, which again violates Bitcoin market cycles.
2) If Bitcoin doesn’t have a bear market after hitting ATH, and will continue ranging till the next scheduled halving in 2024.
Nothing mentioned here is engraved in stone… it remains a theory till proven wrong or right.
What do you think?
This time, I worked out on predicting the ATH itself. I have published it roughly and pinned it on my Twitter profile back in August 1st. And here is the breakdown of this theory; feel free to challenge it:
1. I started with the question of how high should Bitcoin should go to fall 80%-85% in the next cycle setting it’s new ATL. After all, it is a known fact that BTC falls this much from its new ATH to set its new cycle ATL.
2. Then I considered that Bitcoin should respect its previous cycle 2017 ATH ~20k, and not violate it. After all, this is what we learned from Bitcoin cycles.
3. Then I looked at the charts where the bulls defended the support during this cycle, and could that 30k was defended in Jan 2021, Feb 2021, May 2021, June 2021 and July 2021.
4. To avoid being biased to this support, I applied Fib R on 2017 cycle ATH and ATL where the 0.236 level met 2017 ATH at 20k, and 2018 ATL 3.1k at the 0 level. These Fib levels have been the consideration of Bitcoin in every cycle, the only difference was the FIB R level of the ATH that followed.
5. Looking at Fib R proposed ATH levels for this cycle, I found the following: 74k at Level 1, 117k at level 1.618, and 188k at level 2.618.
6. I didn’t take into consideration further levels in consideration of the diminishing returns theory and to remain as conservative as rationally possible with this theory.
7. The level that gave Bitcoin 80%-85% drop without violating previous cycle ATH, was the 1.618.
8. That said, theoretically this coming ATH puts Bitcoin at a jaw dropping 188k.
Now that I have validated my theory with the mentioned above references, I worked on what takes to violate my theory:
1) If Bitcoin doesn’t reach that high, it may end up either not dropping 80%-85% in the coming bear market => This will violate Bitcoin all previous bitcoin cycle trends. Or Bitcoin will fall through previous cycle ATH 20k, which again violates Bitcoin market cycles.
2) If Bitcoin doesn’t have a bear market after hitting ATH, and will continue ranging till the next scheduled halving in 2024.
Nothing mentioned here is engraved in stone… it remains a theory till proven wrong or right.
What do you think?
Unless you figure a way to make money while you sleep, you’ll work till you die.
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