BTC/USD Daily Technical Outlook – Approaching Cycle Top?

Bitcoin is currently trading around $85,500, maintaining short-term bullish momentum within a well-formed ascending structure on the daily chart. The price is now entering a mid-phase rally, with a clear target of $98,000, a key resistance level that coincides with the upper boundary of a rising wedge formation and historical trend extension zones.

Key Technical Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $88,800 (local supply zone)

Major Target Zone: $97,000–$98,000 (macro resistance + psychological round number)

Short-Term Support: $82,000

Key Breakdown Level: $78,500

While the momentum suggests BTC may continue to push higher in the near term, the $98,000 resistance is likely to act as a distribution zone, where buying may slow and profit-taking increases. This level could falsely signal a breakout, leading to a spike in retail long positions before the market enters a longer-term correction phase.

If rejection occurs at or near $98,000, BTC could begin a multi-month correction, with the primary downside target set at $49,000 by July 2025. This level aligns with previous weekly support, volume profile lows, and would represent a typical deep retracement following a major cycle top.

Outlook:
Near-term bias: Bullish toward $98,000

Macro bias: Bearish reversal expected from resistance zone

Cycle correction target: $49,000 (Q3 2025)