🟨 Bear Markets - History & Analysis

2022年12月11日

The calculations use the S&P Dow Jones Indicies.

"The past doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes"

WHAT IS THIS IDEA

• It plots all Bear Markets from 1900 to present day and separating them with those who have coincided with Recessions and those who are independent of recessions
  
• Analyse the current Bear compared to previous precedents to determine the probability of the move of the general market
  

HOW TO USE IT

• We can see that there is a clear correlations between the depth+length of the Bear market and the times we are in recession;
  
• We can see that IF there is no recession on the market than the current Bear is becoming quite mature (299 days vs 212 days average) and we can expect that we will not violate the current lows;
  
• If the economy is announced to have a technical recession, we will be likely go deeper and violate the lows (-31% vs 34.6%).
  

LEGEND

• 🟢 Bear Markets without Recessions (avg. -25% Loss, 212 Days)
  
• 🔴 Bear Markets with Recessions (avg. -34.6% Loss, 353 Days)
  
• ⚫️ Current 2022 Bear Market (avg. -31.0% Loss, 299 Days)