Hi guys I received several question regarding Bitcoin. I do not really like to participate in the hype of posting about a hype.
I would say: forget the 'fundamental analyses', they are based on non-existing correlations/comparisons and therefore of little to no value.
For crypto's in general: there is no comparison/correlation with money, companies or commodities. Everyone with some experience in the professional market knows exactly why. If you want to compare it to something, the best you can do is compare it to a start-up. And it is not out of its danger zone (it is not mature yet) and like most start-ups, most crypto's will fail. Bitcoin is not the best crypto compared to others but proves once again that being first is often more important than being the best.
Richt now it is buying a hype hoping that someone else is willing to pay even more without getting anything in return but participation in a hype. And when analyzing a hype you look at the technicals to see where we are in a potential cycle, because emotions drive this instrument and nothing else since we broke the 2000 level (below 2000 it was an investment (venture capitalist style).
That being sad, I do believe like many other professionals in the blockchain technology itself and I think we can't ignore that. We see major tech companies invest in the blochchain technology, FED chairman Yellen had meetings with Bitcoin representatives in early 2016, etc.
Please be smart and ignore all 'fundamental theories' for trading purposes and trade based on technical's, focus on risk reward and make sure your broker does not charge costs if your stop loss does not get respected (liquidity blackhole is the biggest risk in a hype).
At the moment Bitcoin is finally making an attempt to make a significant correction. Once that is out of the way there might be a good buying opportunity. Keep in mind that this is not a mature market and that is another risk. Technicals are far less reliable on lower time frames. So far a lot of minor consolidations resulted in good buy opportunities but that might change as of now due to the fact that we finally see some serious testing of previous levels by means of a more significant consolidation (potential strong correction).
I told my traders last Friday to look for that leg lower. Those positions are at least at break even and now we will see what kind of corrective structure will unfold.
Safe Trades!
評論
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This is what I am more or less looking for. On the left you see a correction of lesser degree. Now I like to see a correction of larger degree. That will give the highest probable buy in terms of structure (unfortunately there are no valid statistics for crypto's yet). Trading is IF=THEN and those who follow me for a while understand what I mean by that. Confirmation of a potential -> position yourself for the continuation in whatever degree cycle you like to trade and adjust when the market tells you too. Hope this helps providing some context. 4hr: 1hr:
評論
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I posted a new bitcoin trade idea and will use that for updates in terms of a possible bullish reversal.
hope there are as many people working on development of a better transaction method for bitcoin versuses the millions drawing charts about it
TimStuyts
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@rlreecer, haha fair point. I would personally focus on futures.
quintin79
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when you say look for price to take out the low of 11148 are you suggesting that is a turning point for the correction or just a confirmation of the larger correction?
TimStuyts
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@quintin79, hi Quintin, if we see a bullish reversal after we take out that low we have the highest probability of buying the continuation. If we don't take out that low several corrective patterns remain on the table which could very well result in more sideways action. Hope that answers your question.
nummus
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I share your expectation of a larger correction. Taking out the 22 Dec. low would bring us close or through the MA200 on a 1D chart, which would create a great buy opportunity - the same as many times before.
TimStuyts
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@nummus, to me trading is like fishing (although I like trading much better). You set yourself up for the highest probability to success. But if the fish doesn't bite I am not jumping in the water to catch it with my hands (very low probability to success). Those who understand the market know the market is not random, sometimes it is just clearer than other times. I like it to be clear and the results show why. Safe trades and let's see whether we get that set-up we are looking for.
nummus
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@TimStuyts, thank you for your kind reply! I appreciate it!
goldbug1
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I like this comparison better.
goldbug1
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@goldbug1, Note this time the dip was bought up quickly and even this little mini correction was bought up at the trend line quickly. To me this is bullish. Sentiment and trends are everything, and until the trend line is broken and sentiment changes, betting vs the trend will leave you broke in the end! ;)
TimStuyts
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@goldbug1, I see your point. Yes trading with trend is way of least resistance. However the short was a perfect set-up (within the corrective structure) and is protected by the stop. So now I like the correction to mature and then look for the buy. I personally don't use trend lines, only sometimes when used in the same degree. I can't determine based on your chart whether you did that. Can you send one that zooms out a little?