Bitcoin to 4k-ish in a few months

As you can probably see, bitcoin isn't having much fun right now, and is quite clearly heading downwards. First of all on 3D stoch crossover at the top always means we go down, just as at the bottom it always means we go up. Combine this with the wave shown and it's clear we're headed down through the middle of August. It's likely we'll get all the bullish crap then as we climb toward mid-sept (these timings are very rough of course - the concept is still valid but the times are unpredictable) before being deflated again. So far so much not news.

The big concern here however is that hidden bearish divergence. Price tops going down, RSI tops going up, for those unfamiliar with the concept. This suggests a bearish continuation, which is what a hidden bearish div is. It's certainly the clearest opportunity for bitcoin to break through the floor and that volume gap is nasty, meaning we'll likely see a push down to the 4000s. Not pretty.

If it gets down there it then finds itself trapped below that value area, potentially in a channel between the old bottom and the 4k line, being squeezed until it pops upwards. Volume is currently pretty nasty, and will likely deteriorate further, meaning that it's unlikely we'll see enough volume down there to provide a platform for bitcoin to move up from for quite some time. There's real danger of a 2014-style bear run here.

Of course, we may get lucky, ETFs may save the day, we may stay in the channel long enough for bitcoin to break upwards out of it, but in general I don't like this many touches of a support line, and the bearish div tells me we're in trouble. Stay safe out there folks.