$BTC ANGLE OF ASCENT
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Everyone is comparing this rally on BTC as to 2019 starting bull rally
Key factors are this broadening wedge/ megaphone pattern and the angle of ascent is highly bearish
The longer we follow 2019 fractal, the higher probability of an opposite reaction. This is due to the sheer amount of betting in liquidity on a fractal pattern.
IMO this market mainly moves to leverage liquidations, in fact, analysing on hyblock and kingfisher it is more probable BTC moves to liquidate people than for any fundamental reason. If BTC moves for a fundamental reason, it is literally a black swan event.
It is spooky, as it indicates bitcoin is more centralised with whale movement than it appears~
Seen some good examples of Market Maker wicks to fill shorts at the 25k area, don't think they're done. 25.2k is a great area because they can trap shorts and trap breakout traders at the same time by wicking past 25200+
Looking at Hyblock and Kingfisher and the way the market is currently avoiding the billions and billions down from 22-18k area, they are incentivising longs and trapping shorts at the 25k area. Therefore we can estimate that the 27k-29k area is the more probable resolution for max pain before 19k is taken.
A great example is the most recent price crash to 21500 only to rebound back to 25.2k. The market did not want those longs involved whilst it continued to hunt shorts which were stacked at 23600-25200. There was no fundamental reason for the market to do that; it should have continued to crash (because the DXY had broken out and SPX was breaking down). I kept my short open and didn't take profit on 7k of profit because of fundamentals; whilst I was very sure of 23600 getting hunted. I could have simply taken 7k profit and reopened just below my entry with 7k more margin...But I didn't; because I thought it was a bit ridiculous if this market only moves because of peoples' liquidation points
I have been observing liquidations' points for over a year now and apart from luna and ftx black swan events, it really is very obvious that the market just moving towards the highest stack of liquidation points: it takes out 1 chunk and then reverses, and then reverses again to take the reverse liquidations based on the price action that was committed to take out the liquidations on the other side. None of it is natural price action. You cannot compare BTC cycles now to the past because it is just one giant stop hunt algorithm.
TLDR; market only moves based on retail liquidation points. BTC is the ultimate retail countertrend (unless there is a black swan/ institutional selling). Really is scam/ Cartel manipulation. There is no real bid but whale/ exchange bid, because orders can be easily hidden by the opposite takers of contract when a short or long contract is liquidated (someone has to take the counter-trade)
Key factors are this broadening wedge/ megaphone pattern and the angle of ascent is highly bearish
The longer we follow 2019 fractal, the higher probability of an opposite reaction. This is due to the sheer amount of betting in liquidity on a fractal pattern.
IMO this market mainly moves to leverage liquidations, in fact, analysing on hyblock and kingfisher it is more probable BTC moves to liquidate people than for any fundamental reason. If BTC moves for a fundamental reason, it is literally a black swan event.
It is spooky, as it indicates bitcoin is more centralised with whale movement than it appears~
Seen some good examples of Market Maker wicks to fill shorts at the 25k area, don't think they're done. 25.2k is a great area because they can trap shorts and trap breakout traders at the same time by wicking past 25200+
Looking at Hyblock and Kingfisher and the way the market is currently avoiding the billions and billions down from 22-18k area, they are incentivising longs and trapping shorts at the 25k area. Therefore we can estimate that the 27k-29k area is the more probable resolution for max pain before 19k is taken.
A great example is the most recent price crash to 21500 only to rebound back to 25.2k. The market did not want those longs involved whilst it continued to hunt shorts which were stacked at 23600-25200. There was no fundamental reason for the market to do that; it should have continued to crash (because the DXY had broken out and SPX was breaking down). I kept my short open and didn't take profit on 7k of profit because of fundamentals; whilst I was very sure of 23600 getting hunted. I could have simply taken 7k profit and reopened just below my entry with 7k more margin...But I didn't; because I thought it was a bit ridiculous if this market only moves because of peoples' liquidation points
I have been observing liquidations' points for over a year now and apart from luna and ftx black swan events, it really is very obvious that the market just moving towards the highest stack of liquidation points: it takes out 1 chunk and then reverses, and then reverses again to take the reverse liquidations based on the price action that was committed to take out the liquidations on the other side. None of it is natural price action. You cannot compare BTC cycles now to the past because it is just one giant stop hunt algorithm.
TLDR; market only moves based on retail liquidation points. BTC is the ultimate retail countertrend (unless there is a black swan/ institutional selling). Really is scam/ Cartel manipulation. There is no real bid but whale/ exchange bid, because orders can be easily hidden by the opposite takers of contract when a short or long contract is liquidated (someone has to take the counter-trade)
註釋
28353 is the max ill be building shorts until. Liq above 38k. I dont use over 6x lev.
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