BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/1/2019)

2019年2月1日

Good morning, traders. The battle between supply and demand rages on. Bitcoin's price dipped to near the bottom of the local TR at $3364 and has since rebounded back toward the top of it at around $3445 so far. The fact that much more demand is showing up at the bottom of the TR than supply at the top should have the bearish among us concerned. I'm still looking for price to target the blue box, but it begins looking even more interesting now as doing so all-but-guarantees to pull price through the orange wedge's resistance, setting up a target of the yellow resistance, depending on just how quickly price gets to that box. H4 RSI is now pushing through its own resistance as it sits at 49. D1 RSI is challenging its resistance as well. Both TF's RSIs have a lot of room for price to move upward which would likely catch retail traders off guard, if it were to do so, as they expect price to continue down from here. The weekly candle is currently printing as a bullish hammer. Traders should definitely be watching that candle. The higher price goes right now the more bullish the weekly TF becomes (i.e. much greater likelihood of a reversal from the current short down trend). The daily candle is looking pretty good at the moment, but with more than a third of the day left until it closes anything can still happen. The green resistance on the D1 chart, just above the orange, gives a secondary level that price needs to move through as well.

Do we go up from here? Do we print a large IHS? Do we range for the next few months? Does price drop even further and stay down? Absolutely nobody knows for sure. Trading is speculation and, as such, it is inherently risky. The goal is to eliminate as much risk as possible by identifying multiple possible paths of price movement and then deciding what confirmations are needed to signal that price is likely headed in one of the directions you identified, as well as what confirmations are needed that you are the wrong way in a trade. Anybody that tells you anything else is lying to you. Period.

Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.

Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.