BTC/USD Big gains in long term?
已更新
Hey Guys,
I was just looking at the 6 month and 1 year chart of Bitcoin to USD.
I spotted something quite interesting over here.
Untill early oktober maybe late september, nobody I knew had heard of cryptocurrency.
I looked at the chart and saw a patern so I started thinking.
I noticed that we can identify a steady patern of 100*n% gain and a 30% correction afterwards.
At first I thought this would just be funny if it were to be true.
But the more I thought about it, the more I started to believe that this idea might not be so crazy after all.
In early december we had the first real bitcoin media attention. Some american news channels might have mentioned it.
Also quite a lot off shows that discuss investing and trading have been talking about bitcoin.
After this first media attention there is a very big chance that the value of the product will drop.
After this first media attention the price could go up at an unseen speed.
Some people use a simple rule. Buy something nobody wants/knows of and when it hits the news, sell.
Can't argue that it's a solid rule, I also use this rule and it worked out quite well.
BUT!
Have we really seen media attention?
I don't think so! The big majority of the people still doesn't believe that bitcoin can have any value.
Most of the people around me still don't believe in the value of bitcoin.
I've been watching the news and I've not seen a single subject that mentions bitcoin.
When I talk to someone and bitcoin comes up, it is because I mention it and want to talk about it.
I've seen the same thing happen with gold and silver and some stocks.
I think this time could be not so different after all.
So let's talk numbers.
Bitcoin hit an ATH of about 19.6K -20K
This means that a 30% correction would retrace bitcoin to about 13.7K
I already did mention that I expected bitcoin to drop to about 13.5K in one of my previous charts.
If you payed attention to the chart, you can see that the candles always dropped below the EMA55 line of the MA EXP ribbon lines.
I constructed a possible continuation of the line based on the patern if follew the times before.
When we look at the chart, we see that the candles probably will do this aswell.
Conclusion, We could see some serious gains in Bitcoin over the comming months.
I'm not saying I'll eat my own dick or that we will see 1Musd for 1 btc, like McAfee did.
I'm not a 100% sure this is all correct, but the analysis I did does really show a strong patern.
Just wanted to share this "crazy" (or not?) Idea with you guys.
I was just looking at the 6 month and 1 year chart of Bitcoin to USD.
I spotted something quite interesting over here.
Untill early oktober maybe late september, nobody I knew had heard of cryptocurrency.
I looked at the chart and saw a patern so I started thinking.
I noticed that we can identify a steady patern of 100*n% gain and a 30% correction afterwards.
At first I thought this would just be funny if it were to be true.
But the more I thought about it, the more I started to believe that this idea might not be so crazy after all.
In early december we had the first real bitcoin media attention. Some american news channels might have mentioned it.
Also quite a lot off shows that discuss investing and trading have been talking about bitcoin.
After this first media attention there is a very big chance that the value of the product will drop.
After this first media attention the price could go up at an unseen speed.
Some people use a simple rule. Buy something nobody wants/knows of and when it hits the news, sell.
Can't argue that it's a solid rule, I also use this rule and it worked out quite well.
BUT!
Have we really seen media attention?
I don't think so! The big majority of the people still doesn't believe that bitcoin can have any value.
Most of the people around me still don't believe in the value of bitcoin.
I've been watching the news and I've not seen a single subject that mentions bitcoin.
When I talk to someone and bitcoin comes up, it is because I mention it and want to talk about it.
I've seen the same thing happen with gold and silver and some stocks.
I think this time could be not so different after all.
So let's talk numbers.
Bitcoin hit an ATH of about 19.6K -20K
This means that a 30% correction would retrace bitcoin to about 13.7K
I already did mention that I expected bitcoin to drop to about 13.5K in one of my previous charts.
If you payed attention to the chart, you can see that the candles always dropped below the EMA55 line of the MA EXP ribbon lines.
I constructed a possible continuation of the line based on the patern if follew the times before.
When we look at the chart, we see that the candles probably will do this aswell.
Conclusion, We could see some serious gains in Bitcoin over the comming months.
I'm not saying I'll eat my own dick or that we will see 1Musd for 1 btc, like McAfee did.
I'm not a 100% sure this is all correct, but the analysis I did does really show a strong patern.
Just wanted to share this "crazy" (or not?) Idea with you guys.
註釋
Untill now we have dropped to about a 13K.There reason I think that that is, is because of the higher raises then before combined with all the new weak hands that have joined us over the past week.
"But you said 30%"
Just rounded the number, if you look closely, you'll see that BTC has dropped 35% onces in the past few months.
Unless we go below a steady 12 K I don't think that we have to panic about a bubble bursting. If this theorie does work out even if btc "Only" gains 300 or 400%, it would still be a damn good ride.
If this holds, I think we can expect a slow but steady way up back to 20-23K
(first point) and in the end, following to the theory, BTC could be worth 50k or more in a few months. 40K seems like a "reasonable" price to hope for.
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