BTCUSD: Deciphering the market top

2023年12月25日

The top of the bitcoin market has left a lot of folks puzzled about the prospects of further gains. Bears are vehemently defending the 45k to 48k resistance zone, while bulls are just as fervently defending the lower 40000s. This has lead to a narrow trading range that acted has a sideways channel for correction of the remarkable advance in November and early December. The range can only be characterized as extremely complex in structure.

We really have only one tool to decipher this action: The Elliott Wave Principle. It provides a foundational theory of price movement based on the collective trading and social mood of market participants.

This is an attempt to characterize the trading at the top of bitcoin in the second half of December 2023 in terms of Elliott waves.

This shows a logical construction of market structure and suggests that the conditions are ready for a continuation of the bull market in another leg of a wave that began at the bottom of this year,s market.

2023年12月27日

註釋

Despite the extension of the correction by another sharp drop in pricing, nothing has changed in the outlook for this pair. The bullish wave structure stays intact.

The form of final corrective wave Y changed from a flat to more of a zigzag type of abc.

1月20日

註釋

2024-01-19
Now that the market has played out its intricate games, and the score is settled, the market structure revealed, this all seems so silly in hindsight. What appeared so complex and mysterious only a month ago, has revealed its beauty and ingenuity.
The market knows it all.

In case you haven’t caught up on my other posts, the following chart explains the true nature of the market top. It was simply the completion of a manifold of third, fourth, and fifth waves, all under the umbrella of a single wave one, terminating at major chart resistance.