The Humble Side of Magic — BITCOIN! (BTC) =D
已更新
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Before we get into the chart, I just want to let you all know that I've been doing some soul searching, and I've come to the realization that I need to be a bit more humble in my writing approach. I think I may have rubbed some people the wrong way, and, after some deep thought, I've realized that I really don't give a funk! LOL Did you really think I was going to be humble!? HAHA Let's get to it! Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that BTC is forming yet another bear flag. As the series of flag formations continues, we can assume that further downside remains. As you all know, I'm not in the business of "predicting" whether or not a pattern is going to break down or break up or do a back flip. True technicians identify patterns, and trade them the way they see fit. Typically, patterns are best traded on breakouts. However, all trades are subjective, so your approach may vary, depending on the formation, and any additional data that justify a specific trade. In this case, we have a series of bear flags, that indicate a substantial amount of downside that remains.
As you can see, the largest bear flag has a very long pole, which projects a correction of it's full potential, all the way down to the 5114 level, which actually corresponds perfectly with the low of 10/18/17. Now, that does NOT mean that we will actually get to that level. It's just a full scale projection that is based on the size of the big bear flag. You can see that the "Initial Bear Flag Target" is significantly higher, at the rising black trendline. That trendline is very important for BTC to hold, because it ties major lows together. Specifically, the low of 9/15/17, and the low of 2/6. Personally, I will be watching closely, to see if BTC holds that level, should it get down there. A break below it, will definitely put the deeper downside targets in our sights.
In terms of the current bear flag, you can see that it is forming in a very important area. It is below the pink trendline, which has been highly reactionary, and represents the former top side of the downtrend channel, before it morphed into the larger channel that is now defined by the descending parallel black trendlines. The projection of the current flag also puts BTC below the aforementioned "important" rising black trendline. So, you can see that there are several structures that could produce a break below that level. Furthermore, the current bear flag is also building just above the neckline (in light blue) of the head and shoulders pattern. This bear flag consolidation is increasing the chances of a breakdown from the neckline. I have omitted the downside projection of the head and shoulders pattern, because a lot of people think my charts look like coloring books, but it is actually below the 5114 level of the big bear flag. So, technically, we're staring at three structures, that are all projecting breakdowns below the important rising black trendline. As I've said, those combined factors are increasing the odds of a breakdown below that level. In any event, this chart is still very bearish, and the technical bias is to the downside.
On the MACD, we can see that it appears to be setting up for a bullish crossover, but momentum suppression and volume drops are typical to see during flag consolidations. Speaking of volume, you can see that the volume has been declining during this recent consolidation. That is a signal that the flag is legitimate, and the odds of a downside break are elevated. With that said, miracles can sometimes happen, and if an upside breakout occurs, it can be traded just the same. Technically, the indications all point to further downside, so that is what I am anticipating. Good luck trading, comrades!
As you can see, the largest bear flag has a very long pole, which projects a correction of it's full potential, all the way down to the 5114 level, which actually corresponds perfectly with the low of 10/18/17. Now, that does NOT mean that we will actually get to that level. It's just a full scale projection that is based on the size of the big bear flag. You can see that the "Initial Bear Flag Target" is significantly higher, at the rising black trendline. That trendline is very important for BTC to hold, because it ties major lows together. Specifically, the low of 9/15/17, and the low of 2/6. Personally, I will be watching closely, to see if BTC holds that level, should it get down there. A break below it, will definitely put the deeper downside targets in our sights.
In terms of the current bear flag, you can see that it is forming in a very important area. It is below the pink trendline, which has been highly reactionary, and represents the former top side of the downtrend channel, before it morphed into the larger channel that is now defined by the descending parallel black trendlines. The projection of the current flag also puts BTC below the aforementioned "important" rising black trendline. So, you can see that there are several structures that could produce a break below that level. Furthermore, the current bear flag is also building just above the neckline (in light blue) of the head and shoulders pattern. This bear flag consolidation is increasing the chances of a breakdown from the neckline. I have omitted the downside projection of the head and shoulders pattern, because a lot of people think my charts look like coloring books, but it is actually below the 5114 level of the big bear flag. So, technically, we're staring at three structures, that are all projecting breakdowns below the important rising black trendline. As I've said, those combined factors are increasing the odds of a breakdown below that level. In any event, this chart is still very bearish, and the technical bias is to the downside.
On the MACD, we can see that it appears to be setting up for a bullish crossover, but momentum suppression and volume drops are typical to see during flag consolidations. Speaking of volume, you can see that the volume has been declining during this recent consolidation. That is a signal that the flag is legitimate, and the odds of a downside break are elevated. With that said, miracles can sometimes happen, and if an upside breakout occurs, it can be traded just the same. Technically, the indications all point to further downside, so that is what I am anticipating. Good luck trading, comrades!
註釋
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone! ***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-Magic loves you-
-JD-
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