Bitcoin $BTC 'prediction'
已更新
***This is the opposite of financial advice, this is an exercise in pure speculation!***
I would like to throw my hat in the ring of people trying to predict the future of Bitcoin:
The whole idea is based on the 2013 cycle midpoint which featured a consolidation around the middle of the regression curve. Each of the 3 major peaks that led to a prolonged bear market peaked at the upper regression line. I expect the same to happen again. It only seems fitting that the market should experience a major selloff and major skepticism (the current state of the market) before a piece of extremely bullish news comes out - the first BTC ETF approval. The news will cause an initial jump/short covering/FOMO only to be met with a few months-weeks consolidation again making all the late buyers question their position, this skeptic period of trading should have similar price behavior to April 2020-September 2020.
Problems:
-it is possible the breakdown in March 2020 signaled that the regression curve is breaking and BTC will be unable to extend to the upper band (but I can also flip that logic and say the breakdown anomaly will lead to upside extension anomaly)
-the SEC can push back the ETF approval again or even deny its approval (although I find it interesting that more and more ETF applications are being filed and now even multiple ETH applications, this makes me wonder why there is such a rush to apply)
Link to recent BTC ETF article that inspired this idea
coindesk.com/sec-pushes-vaneck-bitcoin-etf-decision-to-at-least-june
I would like to throw my hat in the ring of people trying to predict the future of Bitcoin:
The whole idea is based on the 2013 cycle midpoint which featured a consolidation around the middle of the regression curve. Each of the 3 major peaks that led to a prolonged bear market peaked at the upper regression line. I expect the same to happen again. It only seems fitting that the market should experience a major selloff and major skepticism (the current state of the market) before a piece of extremely bullish news comes out - the first BTC ETF approval. The news will cause an initial jump/short covering/FOMO only to be met with a few months-weeks consolidation again making all the late buyers question their position, this skeptic period of trading should have similar price behavior to April 2020-September 2020.
Problems:
-it is possible the breakdown in March 2020 signaled that the regression curve is breaking and BTC will be unable to extend to the upper band (but I can also flip that logic and say the breakdown anomaly will lead to upside extension anomaly)
-the SEC can push back the ETF approval again or even deny its approval (although I find it interesting that more and more ETF applications are being filed and now even multiple ETH applications, this makes me wonder why there is such a rush to apply)
Link to recent BTC ETF article that inspired this idea
coindesk.com/sec-pushes-vaneck-bitcoin-etf-decision-to-at-least-june
註釋
twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1399107669567361025There are currently 13 crypto ETF applications awaiting approval.
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