What is it that you want, Bitcoin? Where is the bottom?

2018年5月14日

After Bitcoin has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, it broke above the pattern few days ago and kept going up with an uptrend parallel channel. However, it suddenly broke the bottom of the channel and luckily bounced at $8,300. If 4 hour candle closes below $8,300, I am assuming it will reach 0.618 fib retracement region which is around $7,800.
We are observing an engulfing candle in 4 hour chart. Due to the sudden drop that happened today, I am leaning towards my bearish counts. My bullish targets and counts have been invalidated. The chart above is my bearish perspective. Since I am considering recent correction as expanded flat, I am trying to analyze downward wave that started from $9,980 as wave C, which is 5-3-5-3-5 wave structure while many others are just viewing it as ABC wave with 5-3-5 structure.
In terms of the pattern analysis, I am seeing bearish flagpole pattern which has been spotted often lately in the correction. Personally, I think before we go over $9,300 which is 0.618 fib retracement of the recent down-going wave and where high volume of transaction has been formed (Volume Profile), it is risky to say we are done with correction.

This is my bullish point of view which was my main count before sudden drop happened. In this case, my short term liquidation target would be at $9,300. If we fail to support $8,270, this count becomes invalidated. However, I am putting more weight on my first count.

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2018年5月14日

註釋

This could be the wave counting and targets if I were to consider it as a normal abc correction. So far, $8,300~$8,400 region is supporting it well. Some side way movement between 0.5 and 0.618 retracement level could be expected for a while.

2018年5月14日

註釋

I'm watching consensus live. As soon as it started, most of the coin's price are all rising.

2018年5月14日

註釋

Seems like my bullish count was right. Look at the volume.

2018年5月14日

註釋

Here are my countings and short-term targes.