Anywhere between $9,050 to $9,150 would be a great conservative area to entry a short position. In fact, I would say if you were aggressive and willing to take more risk, you could even start scaling in right now around the current $8,950 level.
The daily 200 MA is currently sitting around the $9,150 and should be a major area of resistance. Especially given that the RSI is oversold on the hourly and approaching oversold on the 4hr as well, I am doubtful the bulls will have enough to push through that level today. Furthermore, we have seen a nice rally in the last 3 days. Long that have been buying in from the 7.3k - 8k will be looking to take profits at some point, hence I believe if we are rejected from the $9,150 daily moving average; the drop could be rather violent.
Compound this with the fact that we will be getting the death cross on the daily in 3 days if the price does not rally significantly; this is one of the best opportunities for a short I've seen as of late.
The daily 200 MA is currently sitting around the $9,150 and should be a major area of resistance. Especially given that the RSI is oversold on the hourly and approaching oversold on the 4hr as well, I am doubtful the bulls will have enough to push through that level today. Furthermore, we have seen a nice rally in the last 3 days. Long that have been buying in from the 7.3k - 8k will be looking to take profits at some point, hence I believe if we are rejected from the $9,150 daily moving average; the drop could be rather violent.
Compound this with the fact that we will be getting the death cross on the daily in 3 days if the price does not rally significantly; this is one of the best opportunities for a short I've seen as of late.
評論:
This is what I call a nearly picture perfect trade. At the current level of 8800, I'd would recommend scaling out a small position and letting the rest run. I can see this continue to run quite a bit. My next price target is 8400, but I can see it possibly going down to the 7s within the next day or two.
交易進行:
As predicted, we saw considerable follow through. Personally, I like the concept of scaling in and scaling out rather than trying to pick the top and bottoms. In this scenario, I would still be holding majority of the short position at the current price of 8650.
I believe we will see at least 8350 within the next 24hrs. Probably lower. I am not yet convinced we are out of the long term bear trend and new lows is still in play.
I believe we will see at least 8350 within the next 24hrs. Probably lower. I am not yet convinced we are out of the long term bear trend and new lows is still in play.
交易結束：目標達成:
Current level at $8450 looks like a decent area to close remaining short. Maybe hold a bit more to see if it would run a bit further before a bounce. But personally, I prefer trying to catch the meat of the trade rather than trying to pick the absolute bottom in this case.