Bitcoin: Three Possibilities - Technical Analysis, not Magic.

2018年3月8日

Hello,

This chart is only valid once the condition indicated is met. Which is breaking below 9200$ as indicated in the chart.

We have three possibilities one of which will work out (again once the condition is met)

The first possibility is finding support on the March 2017 uptrend line which is also the end of the cloud as well as a fib level.

The second possibility is the double bottom, basically touching 6k which was the lowest price reached since the exponential growth to 20k.

The third possibility is the descending broadening wedge coming into play, which will place us at a low of around 3.8 to 4k. This is a previous support/resistance region. This will be a completely healthy correction for the market and will reset the overbought monthly RSI.

~DCFreak

2018年3月8日

註釋

I'm heading to sleep, but here is some information you should keep in mind for the next couple of hours:

1) 4hr RSI is oversold, cloud resistance at 10.4k. (So we might see a rise to 10.4k to reset the RSI)

2) Also, a pennant is forming (too early to tell, but its halfway) pennants are continuation patterns, so once it breaks the price will be dropping down. (can be seen in the 15 min frame)

if 2) breaks up, then option 1) will come to play.
if 2) drops down then we will be heading to 9.2k

Here is the pennant I'm talking about (remember, it's not complete, so it might not be a pennant, but regardless there is a downtrend line that is being reacted to)

2018年3月9日

交易進行

2018年3月9日

註釋

Flashback to Feb 19th when I called the Inverse head and shoulders pretty much before the majority (Log scale!)

Then based on indicators updated the idea on the 26th of Feb and said that the head and shoulders is not going to work out:

2018年3月12日

註釋

Eventhough the price bounced that doesn't mean that this is a reversal!!

These points are all strong support regions, so we are going to see a rise after each one of them is touched!!
If the price starts falling back down then that would mean it wasn't a true reversal and a lower support is going to be tested.

2018年3月12日

註釋

BTW the trend indicator used is red, so that points to the fact that we will see a drop in price, not sure how big the drop will be yet though.

2018年3月12日

註釋

As mentioned yesterday, that it will either fall down at 9.9 or 10.2k.
Well it fell down at 9900 exactly in bitfinex, let's see how this goes now. Are we going down to test 6k? We will find out soon.

I will update this once I have access to a PC so I can look at the chart.

2018年3月13日

註釋

A lot of bearish indicators just in case it wasn't clear that I believe we are going down further from the previous updates.

2018年3月14日

註釋

Breakdown target: 7555$
Breakup target: 11300$

2018年3月15日

註釋

** If you don't have much experience, wait for the final bottom. Day trading in such conditions isn't easy and I don't recommend it.

2018年3月16日

註釋

According to fractals (not reliable), the price should be falling down hard within a couple of hours (so next hr candle or the one after)
Again, fractals aren't reliable, but they have been matching with a small error margin for the past two days as can be seen below: