I am not normally into conspiracy theories, but I am interested in any impact (if any) on the spot market from the CBOE and markets.
I have marked the start and end of the 2 markets. There was a clear downtrend for the first CBOE duration and a clear up tick after if ended. Let's see what happens when the expire.
Perhaps the market (being currently so small) doesn't have a direct effect but the impact may be set more in the minds and expectations of the market as a whole. Either way, the effect may be the same.
Consider this scenario:
A whale with deep pockets buys huge amounts of BTC up to 20k, starting from say 10k. At the same time the whale SELLS to open a number of BTC contracts whose nominal value at purchase is equivalent to the the BTC originally bought.
All the whale has to do is sell the BTC, overwhelming the market, triggering preset stop-loss point along the way, which in itself forces the spot price of BTC to go even lower, FUD kicks it and down the spot price goes
Then whale now BUYS TO CLOSE the BTC contract at a huge profit AND most importantly buys again BTC at a lower price.