Bitcoin Whales Left the Market
已更新
Just gonna forward some of what i posted earlier today
Hello everyone, most might have wondered, where the F is David. I chose not to post anything, because i did not want to cause any panic. Simply because i am not sure of anything. It was clear i hope, something was very wrong during the crash. Very glad its a bit stable now, giving people the chance to think about what to do.
At the moment TA wise, it's also looks bad. We broke big support levels without a second doubt and with huge volumes. Normally a guarantee that it's no over yet. But only doubt i have, the crash was more a system failure i think than real selling. The liquidations at Bitmex were simply too much (i use Bitmex so dont know how it was with the other ones).
Also, i understood that from the biggest BTC wallets, nothing really changed, some even increased their bitcoins. So where i had some panic, seems the big boys don't. At least not these wallets.
TA wise, only a BIG rally can take away the bearish setup here. Think for that, we need a big volume pump to above 7000 even, maybe even 8000. Otherwise, even if we would see a move up to like 6000/6400 (prob a short squeeze then), trend is still down. When looking at alts, the few i saw, broke 2018 lows, which is a big sign as well.
During uncertain moments like this, i don't want to advice people what to do with their long term bags. Me personally, going to sit this out, meaning too much uncertainty at the moment, too much risk on the down side. Good chance we might be headed lower coming weeks/months. For the long term people, you have a much more difficult decisions. Do you FOMO here, or simply buy higher if things looks more safe or buy lower if we do drop much more. These are tough decisions, something i ALWAYS try not to be in that position, for having to make them. Benefit for not being a long term Hodler and simply trying to catch waves in this market.
................................
TA now,
On the right we can see a channel which looks/is real to me. Today we broke up from it again, had a nice move up but its all the way back down again. Normally not a good sign. Think if the channel breaks again, we could be headed to the low side of it again.
On the left, some lines i had drawn yesterday, but already had a feeling we would see those small fake breakouts and coming back again. Mentioned these situations several times before in the past with triangles like these. Shows the market doesn't know yet what to do. So a lot of noise in this range making the triangle bigger as we speak.
Think the real range that has value is between 5800 and 4800.
Also important to know, funding on Bitmex was at its max past days, paying longs a lot of money. That is close to neutral now. This means, it was super attractive to go long on Bitmex past days (and sell at spot or whatever strategy they have). This effect is coming to an end now. So doesn't mean we will certainly drop now. Because assuming people who went long with big positions on Bitmex, hedged this by selling on spot exchanges. So in general you would say it's neutral, but i think retail on average does not do it like that. So retail is less incentivised to go long now, at least on Bitmex.
Good thing we have now though, Open Intrest has dropped a lot past days, so the risk of huge liquidations has decreased because of that now as well. So i think (hope) we won't see any extreme moves from now on, at least not the panic we saw a few days ago
...........................
So that was a short squeeze up, very short lived it seems. On the right, think that zone around 5200, was the accumulation level of this squeeze, so think if that breaks, it will prob be VERY bad news. So far looks like a typical bear flag. Not hopeless yet, think first step is 5500, above 5600 think it will be neutral again. Below 5400, obviously still very dangerous here
Now going live again :). The 5400ish just got rejected and we made a new low at 5150. At the moment it's stil holding, already too long for a normal bearish move. So good chance they might hold it and zig zag around some more coming hours, maybe even day or 2, can't say. Feels as if a lot is at stake now. Also as mentioned above, a move up is prob a short squeeze, is exactly what happened. Which is also a worrying sign to me, because it shows (at least this attempt now), that there are hardly buyers in the market and and the only way to go up is to bully out leveraged short positions.
Now in hindsight, there is even a chance the rally to 10K was a big exit scam move. For this i am showing another post i did when we were still in the 6K few days ago, it also explains the title of this analysis:
Damn, this is bad. Like some big whales left the market. Liqs hardly getting bought, hardly seeing big orders with this volume. This wave is similar to Dec 2018. Just seeing all this past hour or so. Hope it’s clear this is NOT what I wanted to see for the bullish long term version. That key moment I talked about simply failed. What and how next, I can’t say yet. But one thing I am quite sure of (usually never say I am sure of something), that we don’t simply just spike up again. So only advice I can give now, would not buy anything for the long term yet. Because quite sure it will hang here for at least a few days in the best scenario. So when things cool down a bit, we can start to assess this crap and think about the next steps. At least very I was prepared since the highs weeks ago and hope you were too. Where many prob lost a ton of money again. So if your in good shape, try to remain calm and wait for a good opportunity, when signs are on our side again.
This advice is not for the day traders or scalpers, selling high and buy low is an option, but be aware, this is panic, so it can be painful, so I would adjust sizes if you do try to trade this. Safer bet is usually sell the high in this type of environment
Now this is what worries me a lot, where are these whales. Where are the arbitrage traders buying up the big price differences between exchanges, keeping things in balance? I hope it's as simple as, these people simply needed to cash out their bitcoin assets, because they had to cover their big losses in the stock market (margin calls). Would mean they could come back again in the future when cools down in the world. We have panic in the world, so i don't think it's that strange to see panic in financial markets, even for Gold and Crypto.
For the rest, i also want to say, there are more important things now than making money and/or crypto. Good chance the big players/investors in the world think the same thing. Take care of yourself and your family
Previous analysis:
Hello everyone, most might have wondered, where the F is David. I chose not to post anything, because i did not want to cause any panic. Simply because i am not sure of anything. It was clear i hope, something was very wrong during the crash. Very glad its a bit stable now, giving people the chance to think about what to do.
At the moment TA wise, it's also looks bad. We broke big support levels without a second doubt and with huge volumes. Normally a guarantee that it's no over yet. But only doubt i have, the crash was more a system failure i think than real selling. The liquidations at Bitmex were simply too much (i use Bitmex so dont know how it was with the other ones).
Also, i understood that from the biggest BTC wallets, nothing really changed, some even increased their bitcoins. So where i had some panic, seems the big boys don't. At least not these wallets.
TA wise, only a BIG rally can take away the bearish setup here. Think for that, we need a big volume pump to above 7000 even, maybe even 8000. Otherwise, even if we would see a move up to like 6000/6400 (prob a short squeeze then), trend is still down. When looking at alts, the few i saw, broke 2018 lows, which is a big sign as well.
During uncertain moments like this, i don't want to advice people what to do with their long term bags. Me personally, going to sit this out, meaning too much uncertainty at the moment, too much risk on the down side. Good chance we might be headed lower coming weeks/months. For the long term people, you have a much more difficult decisions. Do you FOMO here, or simply buy higher if things looks more safe or buy lower if we do drop much more. These are tough decisions, something i ALWAYS try not to be in that position, for having to make them. Benefit for not being a long term Hodler and simply trying to catch waves in this market.
................................
TA now,
On the right we can see a channel which looks/is real to me. Today we broke up from it again, had a nice move up but its all the way back down again. Normally not a good sign. Think if the channel breaks again, we could be headed to the low side of it again.
On the left, some lines i had drawn yesterday, but already had a feeling we would see those small fake breakouts and coming back again. Mentioned these situations several times before in the past with triangles like these. Shows the market doesn't know yet what to do. So a lot of noise in this range making the triangle bigger as we speak.
Think the real range that has value is between 5800 and 4800.
Also important to know, funding on Bitmex was at its max past days, paying longs a lot of money. That is close to neutral now. This means, it was super attractive to go long on Bitmex past days (and sell at spot or whatever strategy they have). This effect is coming to an end now. So doesn't mean we will certainly drop now. Because assuming people who went long with big positions on Bitmex, hedged this by selling on spot exchanges. So in general you would say it's neutral, but i think retail on average does not do it like that. So retail is less incentivised to go long now, at least on Bitmex.
Good thing we have now though, Open Intrest has dropped a lot past days, so the risk of huge liquidations has decreased because of that now as well. So i think (hope) we won't see any extreme moves from now on, at least not the panic we saw a few days ago
...........................
So that was a short squeeze up, very short lived it seems. On the right, think that zone around 5200, was the accumulation level of this squeeze, so think if that breaks, it will prob be VERY bad news. So far looks like a typical bear flag. Not hopeless yet, think first step is 5500, above 5600 think it will be neutral again. Below 5400, obviously still very dangerous here
Now going live again :). The 5400ish just got rejected and we made a new low at 5150. At the moment it's stil holding, already too long for a normal bearish move. So good chance they might hold it and zig zag around some more coming hours, maybe even day or 2, can't say. Feels as if a lot is at stake now. Also as mentioned above, a move up is prob a short squeeze, is exactly what happened. Which is also a worrying sign to me, because it shows (at least this attempt now), that there are hardly buyers in the market and and the only way to go up is to bully out leveraged short positions.
Now in hindsight, there is even a chance the rally to 10K was a big exit scam move. For this i am showing another post i did when we were still in the 6K few days ago, it also explains the title of this analysis:
Damn, this is bad. Like some big whales left the market. Liqs hardly getting bought, hardly seeing big orders with this volume. This wave is similar to Dec 2018. Just seeing all this past hour or so. Hope it’s clear this is NOT what I wanted to see for the bullish long term version. That key moment I talked about simply failed. What and how next, I can’t say yet. But one thing I am quite sure of (usually never say I am sure of something), that we don’t simply just spike up again. So only advice I can give now, would not buy anything for the long term yet. Because quite sure it will hang here for at least a few days in the best scenario. So when things cool down a bit, we can start to assess this crap and think about the next steps. At least very I was prepared since the highs weeks ago and hope you were too. Where many prob lost a ton of money again. So if your in good shape, try to remain calm and wait for a good opportunity, when signs are on our side again.
This advice is not for the day traders or scalpers, selling high and buy low is an option, but be aware, this is panic, so it can be painful, so I would adjust sizes if you do try to trade this. Safer bet is usually sell the high in this type of environment
Now this is what worries me a lot, where are these whales. Where are the arbitrage traders buying up the big price differences between exchanges, keeping things in balance? I hope it's as simple as, these people simply needed to cash out their bitcoin assets, because they had to cover their big losses in the stock market (margin calls). Would mean they could come back again in the future when cools down in the world. We have panic in the world, so i don't think it's that strange to see panic in financial markets, even for Gold and Crypto.
For the rest, i also want to say, there are more important things now than making money and/or crypto. Good chance the big players/investors in the world think the same thing. Take care of yourself and your family
Previous analysis:
註釋
There it is again, a dump. Short squeezed up yesterday, people selling longs at the high and dump. Anyway, on the left i adjusted the channel of the flag a bit, because its a bit guessing (because of the panic low we had few days ago). At the moment price is holding here, so gladly not seeing those sick dumps we had few days ago. We did break the 4800ish level, so dangerous spot now. Could be that the channel on the right still has value, that would mean 4700 is the first big resistance. But i am going to keep 4800ish as big level as well.
Don't forget, during extreme times, some TA tools work great (like trend lines on low time frame), but some tools are a bit worthless.
註釋
Seems to be a neckline now at 4900ish. If it breaks, could see another short squeeze again. Once again, Bitcoin following the stock market! Was about to dump, all of a sudden a 300 point wick from 4500 to 4800註釋
Stil zig zag movement going on, so a lot of noise still making it a bit hard to predict the short term. I posted a few messages today in my channel, saying how insanely precise, bitcoin is following the stock market movement. Which kinda sucks, because this makes TA more difficult. Now it looks, even if we have a sure thing pattern, if the stock market goes the other way we see Bitcoin move along with it. Anyway, trying to make sense of things here. Past hours been moving inside of 4850 and 5150. Also the channel on the right still seems to have some value, but looks less obvious now. On the left we can also see, the triangle seems to be playing a role as well, but i think maybe its better to think of the 5150/5200 zone is actually playing the big role here. This was today's important support (the one i mentioned before the drop started).
On the left you can see i have drawn that blue line, well, it's my guess here. Since we have not dropped yet and still holding here it would make sense to see the market try another short squeeze up. I think the max of any move up should be around 6200ish, If we get above that, it could get tricky. At least, if we get above that, its hard to say this is a standard bear flag.
So i hope it's clear, i am still looking down, still bearish here for the coming period. Just short term is a bit tough now AND with Bitcoin following the stock market so closely, making it even harder.
So big chance, that IF we would see a big relief rally on the stock market (read short squeeze), good chance Bitcoin will follow as well. So i would keep a close eye on both markets coming period.
註釋
Maybe good to add, think below the 5200ish, bears are in favour, above that level, the bear flag option could be in play.註釋
Now things are looking a bit wedgy. ETH even weaker than Bitcoin, not even able to cross that 5200 level of Bitcoin (red zone on the left). Become less likely now to think of bullish movement. Would say, if Bitcoin breaks 5200/150, the bear flag attempt (so going up first) is prob lost. 註釋
ETH broke the "wedge"as well now, no big move yet though, so it all remains tricky. Just so much false signals now because of how it follows the stock market. US just opened half hour ago, so the random moves will prob start again now coming 8 hours or so. In theory, ETH and BTC should not break those red zones anymore. As long as they stay below it, the wedge is in play. If it breaks, below the highs of past hours it could still play out, but becomes a gamble then.
Would say, you can day trade this, but would use smaller sizes. Just don't forget, this is most likely still just a big consolidation (bear flag), so goo chance eventually we will still drop
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