Beyond Bear Market, Bitcoin's longterm possibilities

2018年3月11日

Hello dear friends,

I've seen a lot of charts out there drawing comparisons between the Mt Gox 2013/14 crash and subsequent bear market with Bitcoin today.
While this remains the most obvious potential scenario, it is not the only one. The permabull in me might be bias in believing there is an alternative outcome for the coming months that doesn't end with gloom.

And as C3P0 would say:

That's funny, the damage doesn't look so bad from out there...

Looking at the big picture (the logarithmic one), the drop we just experienced since December feels like a scratch. With that said,it may be much worse before it gets better. A lengthy sideways would be as equally painful for the mind, giving us weeks on sleepless nights and false breakouts. One the plus side, one could draw a channel like the one pictured and still see tremendous upside, even dream of fancy six figures number within reach. Mind you, drawing pitchfork channels is also prone to the author's subjectivity. I wouldn't put too much reading into the exact prices.

Fantasy or not, you can't be seriously in crypto without having an idealist side. As long as your other side is a realist that keeps you in check, you should be fine :)

But wait... As Obiwan would say:

That's no moon

As explained earlier, and until proven otherwise, the most likely scenario remains a full blown bear market plenty of lower lows and rekt enthusiasts. There is no certainty in trading, only probability and gut feelings. So please please please be careful with your coins.

Okay so what? Well as George would say:

A long time ago, in a galaxy far away...

So let's go on a little time travel and head back to three of Bitcoin's tormented eras. In the coming updates, ill draw a comparison with what happened in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Stay tuned...

2018年3月12日

註釋

Hello dear friends, got sidetracked with doing the comparative, but will do it soon as promised. For now just wanted to point out the recent drop was correlated with the 50ma death crossing with 200 and 314 MAs. For reference, here is a chart that shows what happened last time there was such a death cross.

Should we expect similar drop? Sadly, maybe. That said, there is a major difference with the previous cross. While the 50ma is crossing down, the 200ma is also trending up and golden crossing with the 314ma.

In other words, while there is a definite bearish sign, there is underlying bullishness as well. That could translate into a higher low, or more wiggleness and volatility.

2018年3月12日

註釋

Before we dive into analysis, let me answer this question:

Does it even make sense to compare the present with the past?
It's undeniable that charts follow patterns. The things is, even though they're similar, every seasoned trader would tell you that no pattern repeats exactly as the previous one. Looking at charts is a bit like looking at the sound wave of a song. One could identify where the chorus repeats visually, even tough each iteration has its own "signature", subject to pitch changes and frequencies. And unless the song is entirely made by a robot, there will be natural fluctuations in the rhythm. That's why i like to look at historical data. On the other hand, Bitcoin has so little history it is dangerous to rely on it. It could easily be forming a brand new pattern that behaves in an entirely different fashion.

We may be no twins, we can still be brothers

Exactly. So here is the first step of our comparison: Moving Averages

Right off the bat, we can see that the current even hare more in common with *gasp* 2014 than 2013. 2012 isn't really relevant at this point because the 200 and 314mas hadn't fully formed yet.

That said, there is room for interpretation. Again, we're dealing with so little back data that a brand new pattern may be forming. In any case, Ill leave this for everyone's reference.

Red=50ma
Orange=200ma
Green=314ma

2018年3月12日

註釋

P.S. The2014 Snapshot shows only portion of the drop. Don't be fooled, it goes much lower

2018年3月12日

註釋

Also, the words i used to describe 2014 resemblance over 2013 are a bit strong. In fact, the variations are close enough that both remain valid "cousins".

Why 8Hr chart? Because it offers enough granularity to see meaningful changes without sacrificing a full overview. And I wasn't able to pull off a good 4 screen share over 4 hour tf.

2018年3月15日

註釋

2018年3月18日

註釋

Hello dear survivors,

Wanted to bring to your attention to this great article by Anonymint. You may have already seen it as it is a few weeks old, but nevertheless extremely pertinent. it more or less destroys this idea :/, but rightfully so. Anonymint also draws similar comparison with previous 2012/2013/2014 crashes.

steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019

2018年5月9日

註釋

From a pure ichimoku standpoint, BTC is still bullish on the daily with a $11,500 target. That said, if we're looking back at 2014, the reversal to bearish happened at a 200ma level off the top of the cloud. was the rejection We are already at the 200ma leve

2018年8月21日

註釋

It's been a while since the last update, although much has happened. So far, it seems Bitcoin has been taking the long and painful way downtown. If it keeps following the arrow on the chart, we'd be slowly moving towards the $1000 mark for the next few years. That overly pessimistic scenario is plausible, but not the only option. The long term channel is still alive and King Corn still full of surprises.

A sudden drop to 4.8k would give us a bottom channel touchdown around sept~oct 2018 and the potential to rebound.

Another very realistic scenario is that we're going to keep grinding sideways between 5k and 10k until spring 2019, a return to ath in 2020 and a new bull run in 2021.

Potentially a move to 10k first.

All of these are just assumptions, there are a lot of fundamentals coming into play that will steer Bitcoin or another, ETF decisions being one of many. Stay safe and don't forget we're in a bear market (until we're not)