At some time in the future we will be exiting below 85 on the 1D RSI for good for now. I'm trying to figure out a target for the next fall in order to try and have an intelligent estimate for when to get back in.
Looking at previous instances of this gives the following data. Apologies for imprecision, these are just eyeballed.
The six previous falls after breaking 85 1D RSI-
-40.4%
-40.5%
-32.1%
-12%
-34.2%
-31.4%
Median = -33.1%
Length of time until next low-
8 days
46 days
9 days
3 days
7 days
15 days
Median = 8.5 days
Extrapolating from now (we haven't dropped below 85 yet though) would give a target of $3489. I know this seems low and improbable right now, but it is what the data says without our bullish glasses on. This would require breaking the 200D MA again, which would greatly accelerate the descent if it occurred. The market did the same move in the last reversal of the bear market.
Looking at previous instances of this gives the following data. Apologies for imprecision, these are just eyeballed.
The six previous falls after breaking 85 1D RSI-
-40.4%
-40.5%
-32.1%
-12%
-34.2%
-31.4%
Median = -33.1%
Length of time until next low-
8 days
46 days
9 days
3 days
7 days
15 days
Median = 8.5 days
Extrapolating from now (we haven't dropped below 85 yet though) would give a target of $3489. I know this seems low and improbable right now, but it is what the data says without our bullish glasses on. This would require breaking the 200D MA again, which would greatly accelerate the descent if it occurred. The market did the same move in the last reversal of the bear market.